The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of 3. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.4% chance, while the model favours an away win. Home-side Ujpest, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 6.0 goals per match, and has yet to score in the last five games. In contrast, Ferencvarosi TC, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 29% for a home win, 25% for a draw, and 46% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 83.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.6%, and Under 5.5 cards at 75.2%. The recent form shows Ujpest coming off a win, while Ferencvarosi TC continues a four-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The match finished 2-3, an away win that confirmed the model’s pick. The pre-match favourite, Away win, had a 46% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with an 83.8% probability, Over 2.5 cards hit at 79.1%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 75.6%, while Under 5.5 cards missed at 75.2%. The final score of 2-3 matched the actual result of an away victory, and the model’s prediction of the most likely total goals of 3 was in line with the 3-goal outcome. The away side’s four-game winning run helped secure the win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ujpest win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC win✓ Hit
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ujpest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.68
1.86
1.71
0.71
1.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
6.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.57
2.18
1.55
0.75
1.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.17
1.71
1.00
1.31
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.74
1.04
1.91
0.91
1.58
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
5.1%
Ujpest goals ↓
Ferencvarosi TC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
6.3%
6.6%
3.9%
1.8%
1
4.7%
11%
9.2%
5.5%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.2%
6.5%
3.9%
1.7%
3
1.9%
3.4%
3.0%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ujpest goals (down), columns = Ferencvarosi TC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.91
Kecskeméti TE
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.64
Puskas Academy
1.61
Paks
1.48
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.27
Ujpest
1.24
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.18
Fehérvár FC
1.06
Budapest Honved
1.00
Vasas
0.79
Ujpest is 0.67 points worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.88
Paks
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.58
Kecskeméti TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.45
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Ujpest
1.27
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.21
Fehérvár FC
1.15
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.12
Budapest Honved
1.03
Vasas
0.88
Ujpest is 0.61 goals worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kecskeméti TE
0.97
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.18
Puskas Academy
1.27
Fehérvár FC
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Vasas
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Budapest Honved
1.55
Ujpest
1.67
Paks
1.73
Ujpest is 0.67 goals worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ujpest
For 4.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ferencvarosi TC
For 6.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ujpest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (28)
9.7
10.0
9.3
2.3
2.2
2.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
-
10.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
9.5
9.7
9.2
2.1
1.8
2.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
11.0
11.0
-
3.7
5.5
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
29%
29%
29%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
50%
71%
71%
71%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
10.0
10.3
9.7
3.3
3.5
3.1
24.9
25.5
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
8.5
13.0
4.0
4.8
3.0
6.5
28.0
28.0
28.0
vs Similar (8)
9.8
10.0
9.5
5.2
5.5
5.0
22.5
23.3
21.7
vs Weaker (32)
10.5
9.9
11.2
2.6
3.0
2.2
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
59%
60%
57%
45%
45%
45%
64%
50%
80%
% under line
41%
40%
43%
55%
55%
55%
36%
50%
20%
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.9
Zalaegerszegi TE
10.4
Ferencvarosi TC
10.0
Mezokovesd-zsory
9.8
Ujpest
9.7
Budapest Honved
9.5
Kisvarda FC
9.4
Puskas Academy
9.3
Fehérvár FC
9.0
Debreceni VSC
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Puskas Academy
5.3
Fehérvár FC
5.2
Ferencvarosi TC
5.1
Paks
4.9
Mezokovesd-zsory
4.8
Zalaegerszegi TE
4.6
Ujpest
4.6
Debreceni VSC
4.4
Budapest Honved
4.3
Kisvarda FC
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ferencvarosi TC
24.9
Fehérvár FC
15.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.3%
Under 9.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.6%
Under 3.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ujpest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.64
0.86
0.79
0.14
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.57
0.91
0.64
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
46% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
0.74
0.61
0.82
0.55
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ujpest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.04
1.00
0.93
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.00
1.27
0.91
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.43
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.00
0.43
1.09
0.36
0.92
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ujpest · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Etienne Amenyido75%
A. Matko75%
G. Vlijter50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Máté25%
Arne Maier0%
Etienne Amenyido0%
Krisztofer Horváth0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
A. Matko0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Etienne Amenyido50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
A. Matko25%
G. Vlijter25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krisztofer Horváth75%
A. Matko50%
Etienne Amenyido25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Ferencvarosi TC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristoffer Zachariassen38%
Samy Mmaee17%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Muhamed Bešić60%
Endre Botka50%
Mats Knoester43%
Aissa Laïdouni40%
Samy Mmaee33%
Eldar Ćivić33%
Adama Malouda Traoré29%
Marquinhos Costa25%
Dénes Dibusz25%
Bálint Vécsei25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Henry Wingo14%
Kristoffer Zachariassen12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Franck Boli0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tokmac Nguen33%
Lóránd Pászka25%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Henry Wingo14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Kristoffer Zachariassen0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kristoffer Zachariassen25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Amer Gojak0%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
KT (22)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
Ujpest's squad is €26m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€14m vs €40m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
KT (9)
€1m
BH (6)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
Ujpest's attack is €18m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€5m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
KT (2)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
Ujpest's midfield is €4m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€3m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KT (11)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
Ujpest's defence is €3m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€5m vs €9m).
Hungary: NB I 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kecskeméti TE
Debreceni VSC
Puskas Academy
Paks
Kisvarda FC
Mezokovesd-zsory
Zalaegerszegi TE
Fehérvár FC
Budapest Honved
Vasas