Ujpest’s recent win streak and a 3-1 triumph over Vasas give the home side a slight edge, reflected in a 54% chance of victory, a 23% draw probability and a 23% chance for Nyiregyhaza. The model favours a home win, with an expected 3.3 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.4% chance. Ujpest averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded at home against similarly-matched opponents, while Nyiregyhaza, playing away, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.93 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Over 19.5 fouls (90.7%), Home +2 handicap (90.3%), Under 5.5 (88%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.1%), and Away under 2.5 goals (86.3%). These selections represent the model’s confidence in a high-scoring, home-favoured encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ujpest win
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza win
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ujpest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.83
1.73
1.60
1.53
2.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.78
1.70
1.92
1.38
1.64
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyiregyhaza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.63
1.53
1.40
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.61
1.57
1.29
1.00
1.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.8%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.4%
Ujpest goals ↓
Nyiregyhaza goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.5%
2.8%
1.1%
0.4%
1
6.5%
10%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.7%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.4%
6.8%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.8%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ujpest goals (down), columns = Nyiregyhaza goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Ujpest is 0.50 points better than Nyiregyhaza in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Ujpest is 1.17 goals better than Nyiregyhaza in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Ujpest and Nyiregyhaza are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Ujpest is 0.2 percentage points better than Nyiregyhaza in terms of average possession (51% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ujpest
For 4.3 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 15.8 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nyiregyhaza
For 6.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 17.0 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ujpest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.7
9.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
26.3
26.5
26.0
vs Stronger (4)
11.3
9.5
15.0
4.5
6.5
2.5
22.3
21.5
24.0
vs Similar (46)
9.1
9.8
8.6
3.0
2.9
3.0
26.7
27.3
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
53%
50%
46%
46%
46%
81%
87%
75%
% under line
48%
47%
50%
54%
54%
54%
19%
13%
25%
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyiregyhaza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
32.0
32.0
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
11.0
11.0
-
0.1
0.3
0.0
32.0
32.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nyiregyhaza
11.0
Paks
10.4
Gyori ETO FC
10.0
Debreceni VSC
9.9
Ujpest
9.9
Kisvarda FC
9.9
MTK Budapest
9.8
Puskas Academy
9.7
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
Budapest Honved
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
8.9
Vasas
4.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nyiregyhaza
6.0
Paks
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
MTK Budapest
4.4
Budapest Honved
4.1
Kisvarda FC
4.1
Vasas
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Nyiregyhaza
32.0
Paks
28.6
Ferencvarosi TC
27.9
Debreceni VSC
27.8
Puskas Academy
27.7
Ujpest
26.2
Gyori ETO FC
24.9
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
MTK Budapest
24.6
Kisvarda FC
24.1
Vasas
23.0
Budapest Honved
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.5%
Under 9.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.5%
Under 3.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.2%
Under 21.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ujpest or Draw
78.6%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Ujpest + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ujpest or Nyiregyhaza
77.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Ujpest + Nyiregyhaza
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nyiregyhaza
44.1%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Draw + Nyiregyhaza
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ujpest over/under 0.5
Over
87.7%
Under
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 3.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 0.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 1.5
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ujpest, so a minus line means Ujpest give that many goals of a start and Nyiregyhaza receive them. At -1, Ujpest must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ujpest win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ujpest)
Ujpest -2
17.3%
Draw -2
17.1%
Nyiregyhaza +2
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ujpest)
Ujpest -1
34.5%
Draw -1
21.4%
Nyiregyhaza +1
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ujpest)
Ujpest +1
78.6%
Draw +1
12.4%
Nyiregyhaza -1
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ujpest)
Ujpest +2
91.0%
Draw +2
6.1%
Nyiregyhaza -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ujpest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.73
0.53
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.64
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyiregyhaza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.68
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ujpest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
1.00
1.07
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.07
1.08
1.00
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyiregyhaza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.93
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.93
1.00
0.71
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ujpest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Etienne Amenyido75%
A. Matko75%
G. Vlijter50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Máté25%
Arne Maier0%
Etienne Amenyido0%
Krisztofer Horváth0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
A. Matko0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Etienne Amenyido50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
A. Matko25%
G. Vlijter25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krisztofer Horváth75%
A. Matko50%
Etienne Amenyido25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Ujpest's squad is €7m more valuable than Nyiregyhaza's (€14m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Ujpest's attack is €2m more valuable than Nyiregyhaza's (€5m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Ujpest's midfield is €2m more valuable than Nyiregyhaza's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Ujpest's defence is €2m more valuable than Nyiregyhaza's (€5m vs €3m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →