Ujpest enter the game after a 0-2 loss to Paks, their recent form showing a shaky start to the season, while Vasas also come off a defeat, 0-1 to Puskas Academy, with a mixed last-five record. The model’s most pronounced divergence from market sentiment is the 44% probability of an away win, higher than the 27% home win and 30% draw figures, suggesting the model values Vasas’ stronger away scoring average of 2.5 goals per game against similar opposition and their tighter 1.0 conceded average. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14.1% probability, distinct from the 2-goal total. Ujpest’s home form shows 2.0 goals scored and 1.27 conceded, while Vasas’ away form shows 2.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%, edge 8%), Under 6.5 (98.9%, edge 8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%, edge 10%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%, edge 5%), Under 5.5 (96.5%, edge 9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%, edge 7%) and Away under 3.5 goals (95.0%, edge 5%).
Results analysis
The upset came as Ujpest edged Vasas 3-1, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite, Away win, which had a 45% chance. The home side’s win extends their recent run, while the away team had just recovered from two straight defeats. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.8%, Under 5.5 hit at 96.5%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.2%. Only Home under 2.5 2H goals missed, at 97.1%. The match delivered a surprising home victory and a total of three goals, well above the expected 2.4.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ujpest win✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied 42.0% · @ 2.18
Edge
-17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Dafabet
2.23
William Hil
2.20
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.54
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
Dafabet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.60
Vasas win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied 32.1% · @ 2.86
Edge
+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.00
Unibet
3.00
William Hil
2.90
Superbet
2.90
Betano
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ujpest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.80
1.64
1.64
1.44
1.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.67
1.67
1.83
1.42
1.53
1.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.67
2.13
0.73
1.60
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
2.00
0.93
1.88
0.88
2.17
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
0.50
2.33
0.67
1.38
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.2%
@ 1.16-10.3%
Under 1.5
29.8%
@ 4.77+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.12
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.7%
@ 1.54-17.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
@ 2.35+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.9%
@ 2.35-17.7%
Under 3.5
78.1%
@ 1.54+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Bet365
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
@ 1.46-14.6%
No
51.5%
@ 2.50+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.53
Betano
2.52
Superbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.59+7.3%
0-1
11.6%@ 11.53+7.9%
0-0
10.4%@ 13.82+7.3%
0-2
9.1%@ 15.85+6.3%
1-2
8.9%@ 9.19+4.2%
1-0
7.8%@ 9.88+3.3%
2-1
6.2%@ 8.13+0.9%
2-0
4.4%@ 11.83+0.8%
Ujpest goals ↓
Vasas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
12%
9.1%
4.2%
1.5%
1
7.8%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.4%
6.2%
4.4%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.5%
2.0%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ujpest goals (down), columns = Vasas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Ujpest is 0.33 points better than Vasas in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Ujpest is 0.50 goals better than Vasas in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Ujpest is 0.50 goals worse than Vasas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Ujpest is 8.2 percentage points better than Vasas in terms of average possession (51% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ujpest
For 4.4 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 16.6 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasas
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ujpest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
25.9
25.8
26.1
vs Stronger (5)
10.0
9.5
10.5
4.6
6.5
3.3
23.0
21.5
24.5
vs Similar (45)
9.7
10.3
9.1
3.4
3.4
3.4
26.3
26.4
26.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
59%
47%
50%
50%
50%
78%
76%
79%
% under line
47%
41%
53%
50%
50%
50%
22%
24%
21%
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
5.0
5.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Weaker (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
0%
0%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
100%
100%
-
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.3
Ujpest
10.0
Debreceni VSC
9.9
Puskas Academy
9.8
MTK Budapest
9.8
Gyori ETO FC
9.8
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Ferencvarosi TC
9.5
Budapest Honved
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.0
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.2
Paks
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
MTK Budapest
4.4
Budapest Honved
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.5
Debreceni VSC
27.8
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Puskas Academy
27.5
Ujpest
26.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
MTK Budapest
24.6
Gyori ETO FC
24.2
Kisvarda FC
24.0
Budapest Honved
23.3
Vasas
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.6%
@ 1.89+6.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
@ 1.82-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Unibet
1.96
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.0%
Under 3.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.8%
Under 21.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ujpest or Draw✓ Hit
54.6%
Avg Implied 67.7% · @ 1.36
Edge
-13.1%
25%
30%
45%
covers Ujpest + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Ujpest or Vasas✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
-4.0%
25%
30%
45%
covers Ujpest + Vasas
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Draw or Vasas✗ Miss
74.9%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.59
Edge
+17.1%
25%
30%
45%
covers Draw + Vasas
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ujpest over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.6%
@ 1.16-17.5%
Under
37.4%
@ 4.64+17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Ujpest over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.8%
@ 1.83-24.9%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.88+24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Ujpest over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.7%
@ 3.58-18.1%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.25+18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.72
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Ujpest over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 7.55-10.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.07+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.50
Betano
6.90
1xBet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Vasas over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.5%
@ 1.23+0.1%
Under
24.5%
@ 3.75-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Under
Pinnacle
4.01
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Vasas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.0%
@ 2.14-2.3%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.64+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Vasas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 4.67-3.0%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.15+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Unibet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
Vasas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 10.58-3.5%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ujpest, so a minus line means Ujpest give that many goals of a start and Vasas receive them. At -1, Ujpest must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ujpest win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ujpest)Actual: Draw
Ujpest -2
2.6%
@ 7.83-8.9%
Draw -2
6.9%
@ 6.21-7.6%
Vasas +2
90.5%
@ 1.22+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
8.30
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Ujpest)Actual: Ujpest
Ujpest -1
9.5%
@ 3.92-13.3%
Draw -1
15.6%
@ 4.11-6.1%
Vasas +1
74.9%
@ 1.60+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.57
Handicap +1 (Ujpest)Actual: Ujpest
Ujpest +1
54.6%
@ 1.37-10.5%
Draw +1
22.8%
@ 4.73+4.0%
Vasas -1
22.6%
@ 5.52+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Handicap +2 (Ujpest)Actual: Ujpest
Ujpest +2
77.4%
@ 1.12-3.6%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 7.95+2.6%
Vasas -2
8.6%
@ 12.00+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.40
Away
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ujpest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.79
0.57
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.63
0.92
0.42
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.17
0.80
0.13
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.21
0.75
0.12
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.14
0.83
0.17
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.0%
@ 1.25-5.7%
Under 0.5
32.0%
@ 3.51+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.6%
@ 2.25-9.8%
Under 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.59+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
Betfair
2.25
Under
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.6%
@ 4.97-8.1%
Under 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.14+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Betano
4.85
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 1.75-12.0%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.97+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Ujpest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 4.74-11.1%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.15+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Ujpest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 12.50-6.7%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.02+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Vasas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.6%
@ 1.95-9.0%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.77+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.96
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Vasas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.71-2.7%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.10+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
Vasas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.17-3.7%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ujpest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
0.86
1.07
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
1.04
0.92
1.00
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.33
0.60
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.71
1.12
0.75
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.36
1.50
0.50
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.2%
@ 1.14-6.3%
Under 0.5
24.8%
@ 5.00+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.2%
@ 1.75-12.8%
Under 1.5
59.8%
@ 1.97+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
1xBet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.8%
@ 3.29-10.3%
Under 2.5
82.2%
@ 1.29+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
William Hil
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.51-14.1%
Under
52.8%
@ 2.40+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Ujpest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
12.6%
@ 3.43-14.3%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.26+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Ujpest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
2.9%
@ 8.68-7.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.04+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Superbet
9.10
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Vasas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.5%
@ 1.64-3.1%
Under
46.5%
@ 2.13+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Vasas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.2%
@ 4.10-3.3%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.19+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Vasas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 10.33-4.3%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+7.8%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
96.5%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.02
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+18.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+16.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+14.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.25
+10.3%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.19
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.1%
1.54
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Bet365
1.53
+17.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
77.4%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-6.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.9%
1.59
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
+17.1%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
74.9%
1.60
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.57
+19.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.5%
1.24
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.2%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-10.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ujpest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Etienne Amenyido75%
A. Matko75%
G. Vlijter50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Máté25%
Arne Maier0%
Etienne Amenyido0%
Krisztofer Horváth0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
A. Matko0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Etienne Amenyido50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
A. Matko25%
G. Vlijter25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krisztofer Horváth75%
A. Matko50%
Etienne Amenyido25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Ujpest's squad is €7m more valuable than Vasas's (€14m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Ujpest's attack is €2m more valuable than Vasas's (€5m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Ujpest's midfield is €1m more valuable than Vasas's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Ujpest's defence is €3m more valuable than Vasas's (€5m vs €2m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Ferencvarosi TC
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Paks
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE