This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Magdeburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.37
1.40
1.47
2.33
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
2.12
1.40
1.62
1.46
2.67
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.72+0.6%
Under 2.5
44.5%
@ 2.09-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
6.6%
2-1
6.1%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Ulm goals ↓
1. FC Magdeburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
8.7%
8.8%
5.3%
2.4%
1
5.0%
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.4%
6.1%
5.4%
3.2%
1.5%
3
1.3%
2.3%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ulm goals (down), columns = 1. FC Magdeburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.87
Hamburger SV
1.76
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.71
Hannover 96
1.66
SC Paderborn 07
1.66
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Elversberg
1.63
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Karlsruher SC
1.58
FC Saarbrücken
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.21
FC Schalke 04
1.18
Preußen Münster
1.16
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.02
Ulm
0.88
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88
Jahn Regensburg
0.74
Regensburg
0.74
Ulm is 0.70 points worse than 1. FC Magdeburg in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamburger SV
2.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.92
SV Elversberg
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.74
Karlsruher SC
1.68
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98
1.63
SC Paderborn 07
1.61
1. FC Köln
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.47
FC Schalke 04
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
Hannover 96
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.24
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.07
Ulm
1.06
SSV Ulm 1846
1.06
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Jahn Regensburg
0.68
Regensburg
0.68
Ulm is 0.73 goals worse than 1. FC Magdeburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Hannover 96
1.03
1. FC Köln
1.03
SV Elversberg
1.08
Preußen Münster
1.18
SC Paderborn 07
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Magdeburg
1.39
Ulm
1.41
SSV Ulm 1846
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.45
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98
1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg
1.66
FC Schalke 04
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.77
Jahn Regensburg
2.09
Regensburg
2.09
Ulm is 0.02 goals worse than 1. FC Magdeburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
1. FC Magdeburg
58%
Hamburger SV
55%
FC Schalke 04
54%
Hertha BSC
53%
FC Saarbrücken
53%
1. FC Köln
53%
SV Elversberg
52%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
52%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
52%
1. FC Nürnberg
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
50%
Hannover 96
49%
Karlsruher SC
49%
SSV Ulm 1846
46%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
45%
Preußen Münster
43%
Jahn Regensburg
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
U
Ulm
For 4.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 14.5 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Magdeburg
For 6.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
U
Ulm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (28)
9.5
9.3
9.6
5.5
6.3
4.7
25.1
23.8
26.3
vs Stronger (25)
9.7
9.3
10.1
5.7
6.8
4.7
24.2
23.6
24.8
vs Similar (3)
7.3
9.0
6.5
3.3
0.0
5.0
33.0
27.0
36.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
31%
40%
86%
85%
87%
86%
77%
93%
% under line
64%
69%
60%
14%
15%
13%
14%
23%
7%
This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Magdeburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.2
11.0
5.0
4.7
5.4
23.3
23.3
23.3
vs Stronger (3)
9.7
9.0
11.0
3.7
3.0
5.0
18.3
19.0
17.0
vs Similar (41)
11.0
11.2
11.0
4.7
4.3
5.1
23.2
22.9
23.5
vs Weaker (6)
12.0
12.5
11.0
7.8
7.8
8.0
26.2
27.2
24.0
% over line
68%
65%
71%
72%
65%
79%
62%
58%
67%
% under line
32%
35%
29%
28%
35%
21%
38%
42%
33%
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Köln
11.3
1. FC Magdeburg
11.1
Hamburger SV
11.0
Hertha BSC
10.9
SC Paderborn 07
10.8
SV Elversberg
10.7
1. FC Nürnberg
10.7
Hannover 96
10.7
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.5
Jahn Regensburg
10.4
Karlsruher SC
10.2
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.0
Regensburg
9.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.7
Preußen Münster
9.6
SSV Ulm 1846
9.5
Ulm
9.5
SV Darmstadt 98
9.4
FC Schalke 04
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SSV Ulm 1846
6.1
Ulm
5.5
Preußen Münster
5.2
Hamburger SV
5.2
1. FC Magdeburg
5.1
1. FC Nürnberg
5.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5.1
Jahn Regensburg
5.0
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.0
SV Darmstadt 98
5.0
FC Schalke 04
5.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
1. FC Köln
4.9
Regensburg
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.5
SV Elversberg
4.5
Karlsruher SC
4.4
Hannover 96
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Jahn Regensburg
26.8
Regensburg
25.9
Preußen Münster
25.8
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.5
SSV Ulm 1846
25.2
Ulm
25.1
Hannover 96
25.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
23.9
1. FC Nürnberg
23.6
1. FC Köln
23.3
1. FC Magdeburg
23.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
23.3
Hamburger SV
23.2
SV Darmstadt 98
22.7
SC Paderborn 07
22.6
Hertha BSC
22.5
SV Elversberg
22.2
Karlsruher SC
21.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
21.4
FC Schalke 04
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.8%
Under 9.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.4%
Under 3.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
U
Ulm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.32
0.62
0.08
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (25)
0.52
0.32
0.42
0.08
0.62
0.54
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Magdeburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.76
0.69
0.77
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ulm over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
U
Ulm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.54
1.08
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (25)
0.40
1.00
0.42
1.08
0.38
0.92
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Magdeburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.57
0.80
0.67
1.47
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
0.64
0.92
0.69
1.75
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ulm over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Magdeburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martijn Kaars38%
Mo El Hankouri26%
Philipp Hercher26%
Barış Atik25%
Xavier Amaechi20%
Samuel Loric14%
Marcus Mathisen10%
Livan Burcu9%
Jean Hugonet9%
Abu-Bekir Ömer El-Zein8%
Alexander Nollenberger6%
Lubambo Musonda6%
Connor Krempicki5%
Falko Michel4%
Daniel Heber3%
Silas Gnaka3%
Bryan Silva Teixeira0%
Tatsuya Ito0%
Dominik Reimann0%
Tobias Müller0%
Aleksa Marušić0%
Andi Hoti0%
Alexander Ahl Holmstrom0%
Patric Pfeiffer0%
Jason Ceka0%
Pierre Nadjombe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksa Marušić50%
Marcus Mathisen48%
Tatsuya Ito36%
Barış Atik29%
Jean Hugonet27%
Connor Krempicki26%
Samuel Loric21%
Andi Hoti20%
Daniel Heber19%
Lubambo Musonda19%
Livan Burcu19%
Mo El Hankouri17%
Silas Gnaka15%
Tobias Müller12%
Alexander Ahl Holmstrom12%
Patric Pfeiffer12%
Bryan Silva Teixeira10%
Martijn Kaars9%
Falko Michel9%
Dominik Reimann9%
Xavier Amaechi8%
Alexander Nollenberger6%
Philipp Hercher4%
Jason Ceka0%
Abu-Bekir Ömer El-Zein0%
Pierre Nadjombe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lubambo Musonda25%
Mo El Hankouri22%
Barış Atik21%
Alexander Nollenberger19%
Livan Burcu19%
Tatsuya Ito18%
Xavier Amaechi16%
Martijn Kaars12%
Marcus Mathisen10%
Jean Hugonet9%
Connor Krempicki5%
Bryan Silva Teixeira5%
Abu-Bekir Ömer El-Zein4%
Silas Gnaka3%
Samuel Loric0%
Dominik Reimann0%
Tobias Müller0%
Philipp Hercher0%
Aleksa Marušić0%
Andi Hoti0%
Alexander Ahl Holmstrom0%
Patric Pfeiffer0%
Jason Ceka0%
Daniel Heber0%
Falko Michel0%
Pierre Nadjombe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars38%
Barış Atik21%
Mo El Hankouri17%
Marcus Mathisen10%
Philipp Hercher7%
Samuel Loric7%
Livan Burcu6%
Bryan Silva Teixeira5%
Xavier Amaechi4%
Alexander Nollenberger3%
Silas Gnaka3%
Tatsuya Ito0%
Dominik Reimann0%
Tobias Müller0%
Connor Krempicki0%
Lubambo Musonda0%
Aleksa Marušić0%
Andi Hoti0%
Alexander Ahl Holmstrom0%
Patric Pfeiffer0%
Jean Hugonet0%
Jason Ceka0%
Daniel Heber0%
Falko Michel0%
Abu-Bekir Ömer El-Zein0%
Pierre Nadjombe0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
Fortuna Düsseldorf
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SV Elversberg
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
SV Darmstadt 98
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FC Schalke 04
Preußen Münster
Eintracht Braunschweig
SSV Ulm 1846
Jahn Regensburg
FC Saarbrücken