This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.70
1.88
1.56
1.14
1.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.42
2.04
2.00
1.85
0.73
2.27
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
0.33
1.33
0.33
2.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.9%
@ 2.01+9.8%
Under 2.5
43.1%
@ 1.79-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.5%
Under 3.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
0-0 ✓
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
1-0
5.6%
Ulm goals ↓
FC Schalke 04 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
7.5%
7.1%
3.9%
1.6%
1
5.6%
12%
9.3%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.4%
7.3%
6.0%
3.3%
1.4%
3
1.9%
3.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ulm goals (down), columns = FC Schalke 04 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.87
Hamburger SV
1.76
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.71
Hannover 96
1.66
SC Paderborn 07
1.66
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Elversberg
1.63
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Karlsruher SC
1.58
FC Saarbrücken
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.21
FC Schalke 04
1.18
Preußen Münster
1.16
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.02
Ulm
0.88
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88
Jahn Regensburg
0.74
Regensburg
0.74
Ulm is 0.30 points worse than FC Schalke 04 in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamburger SV
2.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.92
SV Elversberg
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.74
Karlsruher SC
1.68
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98
1.63
SC Paderborn 07
1.61
1. FC Köln
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.47
FC Schalke 04
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
Hannover 96
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.24
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.07
Ulm
1.06
SSV Ulm 1846
1.06
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Jahn Regensburg
0.68
Regensburg
0.68
Ulm is 0.41 goals worse than FC Schalke 04 in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Hannover 96
1.03
1. FC Köln
1.03
SV Elversberg
1.08
Preußen Münster
1.18
SC Paderborn 07
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Magdeburg
1.39
Ulm
1.41
SSV Ulm 1846
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.45
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98
1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg
1.66
FC Schalke 04
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.77
Jahn Regensburg
2.09
Regensburg
2.09
Ulm is 0.30 goals better than FC Schalke 04 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
1. FC Magdeburg
58%
Hamburger SV
55%
FC Schalke 04
54%
Hertha BSC
53%
FC Saarbrücken
53%
1. FC Köln
53%
SV Elversberg
52%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
52%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
52%
1. FC Nürnberg
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
50%
Hannover 96
49%
Karlsruher SC
49%
SSV Ulm 1846
46%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
45%
Preußen Münster
43%
Jahn Regensburg
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
U
Ulm
For 4.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Schalke 04
For 4.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
U
Ulm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
10.8
11.4
10.2
6.5
7.6
5.4
24.2
22.4
26.0
vs Stronger (9)
11.0
11.4
10.5
6.7
7.6
5.5
22.7
22.4
23.0
vs Similar (1)
9.0
-
9.0
5.0
-
5.0
38.0
-
38.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
60%
40%
100%
100%
100%
90%
80%
100%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
0%
0%
0%
10%
20%
0%
This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.1
9.9
4.4
5.2
3.7
23.2
23.7
22.8
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
10.3
10.5
10.1
4.8
5.7
3.8
23.0
24.2
21.9
vs Weaker (9)
8.8
8.5
9.0
4.6
4.2
4.8
24.0
21.5
26.0
% over line
58%
55%
61%
72%
79%
65%
67%
73%
61%
% under line
42%
45%
39%
28%
21%
35%
33%
27%
39%
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.3
1. FC Köln
11.1
1. FC Nürnberg
10.9
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.9
Preußen Münster
10.9
Hertha BSC
10.8
Ulm
10.8
SSV Ulm 1846
10.8
Karlsruher SC
10.7
SC Paderborn 07
10.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.6
SV Elversberg
10.4
1. FC Magdeburg
10.3
Hannover 96
10.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
FC Schalke 04
9.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.8
Jahn Regensburg
9.6
Regensburg
9.3
SV Darmstadt 98
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ulm
6.5
SSV Ulm 1846
6.5
1. FC Nürnberg
5.5
Jahn Regensburg
5.3
FC Schalke 04
5.2
Hamburger SV
5.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5.0
1. FC Magdeburg
5.0
Preußen Münster
4.8
Regensburg
4.8
SV Darmstadt 98
4.8
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.8
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.7
1. FC Köln
4.7
SV Elversberg
4.5
Hannover 96
4.5
Hertha BSC
4.5
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.4
SC Paderborn 07
4.4
Karlsruher SC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
25.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
25.8
Preußen Münster
25.4
Jahn Regensburg
25.2
Hannover 96
25.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
24.6
1. FC Nürnberg
24.5
SSV Ulm 1846
24.4
1. FC Magdeburg
24.4
Ulm
24.2
FC Schalke 04
23.5
SV Darmstadt 98
23.5
Hertha BSC
22.9
Hamburger SV
22.7
Eintracht Braunschweig
22.5
1. FC Köln
22.5
SV Elversberg
22.2
SC Paderborn 07
21.8
Fortuna Düsseldorf
21.4
Karlsruher SC
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.8%
Under 9.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
84.6%
Under 3.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
58.1%
Under 21.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
U
Ulm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.60
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.22
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.88
0.69
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.92
0.92
0.77
0.45
1.09
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ulm over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Schalke 04 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Schalke 04 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Schalke 04 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
U
Ulm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.60
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.60
1.60
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Schalke 04) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Schalke 04
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.00
0.88
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.71
1.12
1.08
1.08
0.27
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ulm over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Schalke 04 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Schalke 04 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Schalke 04 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Schalke 04
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Moussa Sylla43%
Kenan Karaman39%
Ibrahima Cissé25%
Pape Meissa Ba15%
Tobias Mohr14%
Janik Bachmann11%
Ron Schallenberg9%
Amin Younes8%
Paul Seguin8%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei5%
Adrian Gantenbein5%
Tomáš Kalas4%
Max Grüger4%
Taylan Bulut4%
Marcin Kamiński4%
Ron-Thorben Hoffmann0%
Loris Karius0%
Bryan Lasme0%
Aymen Barkok0%
Anton Donkor0%
Derry Murkin0%
Justin Heekeren0%
Lino Tempelmann0%
Mehmet Aydın0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Emil Højlund0%
Felipe Sánchez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aymen Barkok50%
Felipe Sánchez43%
Paul Seguin35%
Ron-Thorben Hoffmann33%
Ibrahima Cissé25%
Derry Murkin21%
Max Grüger21%
Adrian Gantenbein20%
Kenan Karaman19%
Janik Bachmann19%
Marcin Kamiński18%
Tobias Mohr18%
Bryan Lasme17%
Ron Schallenberg16%
Pape Meissa Ba15%
Taylan Bulut15%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei15%
Anton Donkor14%
Mehmet Aydın13%
Moussa Sylla11%
Amin Younes8%
Tomáš Kalas4%
Justin Heekeren3%
Loris Karius0%
Lino Tempelmann0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Emil Højlund0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tobias Mohr18%
Aymen Barkok17%
Paul Seguin15%
Kenan Karaman13%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei10%
Adrian Gantenbein10%
Derry Murkin9%
Amin Younes8%
Pape Meissa Ba8%
Tomáš Kalas4%
Taylan Bulut4%
Janik Bachmann4%
Marcin Kamiński4%
Anton Donkor4%
Justin Heekeren3%
Mehmet Aydın3%
Ron Schallenberg3%
Moussa Sylla0%
Ron-Thorben Hoffmann0%
Loris Karius0%
Bryan Lasme0%
Lino Tempelmann0%
Ibrahima Cissé0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Emil Højlund0%
Max Grüger0%
Felipe Sánchez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Cissé50%
Kenan Karaman26%
Moussa Sylla21%
Bryan Lasme17%
Paul Seguin4%
Taylan Bulut4%
Tobias Mohr4%
Anton Donkor4%
Mehmet Aydın3%
Amin Younes0%
Ron-Thorben Hoffmann0%
Loris Karius0%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Tomáš Kalas0%
Christopher Antwi-Adjei0%
Aymen Barkok0%
Janik Bachmann0%
Derry Murkin0%
Ron Schallenberg0%
Justin Heekeren0%
Lino Tempelmann0%
Pape Meissa Ba0%
Adrian Gantenbein0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Emil Højlund0%
Max Grüger0%
Felipe Sánchez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
Fortuna Düsseldorf
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SV Elversberg
1. FC Magdeburg
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
SV Darmstadt 98
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Preußen Münster
Eintracht Braunschweig
SSV Ulm 1846
Jahn Regensburg
FC Saarbrücken