The most likely outcome of this match is an away win, with Esenler Erokspor's recent form coming off a draw against Sarıyer and averaging 3.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded when playing away against weaker opponents. However, Ümraniyespor has a strong home record, averaging 2 goals scored and 1.75 conceded at home against stronger opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 13% of the time. Ümraniyespor's home scoring and conceding statistics are 2 and 1.75 goals respectively, while Esenler Erokspor's away scoring and conceding statistics are 3.6 and 0.4 goals respectively.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 47% probability. The model also suggests picking Over 1.5, with a 76.8% probability, and Under 3.5, with a 70.8% probability. Ümraniyespor has a 26% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 47% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The 1-1 draw shocked the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 47 % probability, which proved wrong. The final score matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, the only score in the model’s top list. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals, with a 99.3 % probability, hit, as did every other suggested pick: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7 %, Under 6.5 at 97.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.2 %, and Under 5.5 at 94.1 %. Both teams entered the match coming off a draw, with Uşmriyespor’s recent form at DLDLW and Esenler Erokspor’s at DDDLD, and the game delivered a tightly contested 1-1 finish.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ümraniyespor win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.00
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.46
1xBet
4.32
Marathonbet
4.25
BetVictor
4.20
Bet365
4.20
Draw✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.42
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.85
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Esenler Erokspor win✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.82
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.05
10Bet
1.95
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
Dafabet
1.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ümraniyespor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.93
1.07
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
2.00
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.20
1.92
0.92
0.92
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esenler Erokspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.00
1.33
1.13
2.20
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.72
1.03
1.33
1.13
2.14
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
@ 1.24+2.5%
Under 1.5
23.2%
@ 3.61-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.84
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.3%
@ 1.82-0.0%
Under 2.5
48.7%
@ 1.92+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
888Sport
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
@ 3.00-1.6%
Under 3.5
70.8%
@ 1.34+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
3.04
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
@ 1.71+1.2%
No
44.8%
@ 2.01-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
BetVictor
1.73
No
888Sport
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.0%@ 6.23+5.9%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.37+3.4%
0-1
9.3%@ 6.75+2.7%
0-2
8.3%@ 8.14+2.9%
0-0
7.7%@ 10.07+3.3%
2-1
6.7%@ 11.88+3.0%
1-0
6.2%@ 11.11+2.2%
2-2
5.3%@ 12.88+1.9%
Ümraniyespor goals ↓
Esenler Erokspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
9.3%
8.3%
4.4%
1.8%
1
6.2%
13%
9.4%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.2%
6.7%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.6%
2.5%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ümraniyespor goals (down), columns = Esenler Erokspor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.62
Pendikspor
1.62
Antalyaspor
1.61
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Bursaspor
1.56
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Fatih Karagümrük
1.50
Manisa F.K.
1.45
Sarıyer
1.37
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Batman Petrolspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Mardin 1969
1.26
Muğlaspor
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Ümraniyespor is 0.69 points worse than Esenler Erokspor in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Kayserispor
1.72
Antalyaspor
1.72
Bursaspor
1.66
Boluspor
1.61
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
İstanbulspor
1.50
Manisa F.K.
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Batman Petrolspor
1.43
Iğdır FK
1.37
Vanspor FK
1.37
Mardin 1969
1.34
Muğlaspor
1.32
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Sivasspor
1.19
Sarıyer
1.16
Ümraniyespor is 0.84 goals worse than Esenler Erokspor in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 2.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Bodrum FK
1.00
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Kayserispor
1.24
Antalyaspor
1.25
Bursaspor
1.29
Fatih Karagümrük
1.34
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Batman Petrolspor
1.49
Boluspor
1.50
Mardin 1969
1.59
Muğlaspor
1.62
Ümraniyespor is 0.39 goals worse than Esenler Erokspor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Ümraniyespor is 10.8 percentage points worse than Esenler Erokspor in terms of average possession (47% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ümraniyespor
For 5.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Esenler Erokspor
For 4.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ümraniyespor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.3
9.5
4.2
4.1
4.2
23.1
22.4
23.9
vs Stronger (7)
9.0
8.5
9.7
4.3
5.2
3.0
23.0
22.8
23.3
vs Similar (43)
8.9
8.3
9.5
4.1
3.9
4.4
23.1
22.3
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
32%
42%
52%
48%
56%
63%
56%
71%
% under line
63%
68%
58%
48%
52%
44%
37%
44%
29%
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esenler Erokspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.0
8.5
4.7
3.8
5.7
22.6
22.2
23.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
8.8
9.1
8.5
4.8
3.9
5.7
22.8
22.4
23.2
vs Weaker (2)
7.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
1.0
5.0
18.5
16.0
21.0
% over line
38%
42%
33%
74%
65%
83%
65%
62%
67%
% under line
62%
58%
67%
26%
35%
17%
35%
38%
33%
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mardin 1969
10.0
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.6
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.3
Bodrum FK
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Iğdır FK
9.0
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.8
Esenler Erokspor
8.7
Manisa F.K.
8.5
Pendikspor
8.4
Vanspor FK
8.3
İstanbulspor
8.3
Boluspor
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Sarıyer
7.9
Batman Petrolspor
7.5
Muğlaspor
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Batman Petrolspor
7.5
Antalyaspor
5.3
Vanspor FK
5.2
Sarıyer
5.1
Sivasspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Pendikspor
5.0
Boluspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Iğdır FK
4.8
İstanbulspor
4.7
Keçiörengücü
4.7
Bandırmaspor
4.7
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.4
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Muğlaspor
4.0
Bodrum FK
4.0
Mardin 1969
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
39.0
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Vanspor FK
27.7
Antalyaspor
27.2
Pendikspor
26.3
Mardin 1969
26.0
Boluspor
25.6
Kayserispor
25.0
Bodrum FK
24.1
Bandırmaspor
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Iğdır FK
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Sarıyer
23.3
İstanbulspor
23.2
Ümraniyespor
23.1
Sivasspor
23.0
Batman Petrolspor
23.0
Esenler Erokspor
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
37.2%
@ 2.25-3.8%
Under 9.5
62.8%
@ 1.56+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.23
Marathonbet
2.21
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.3%
Under 3.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
54.7%
Under 21.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ümraniyespor or Draw✓ Hit
53.0%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.87
Edge
+3.7%
26%
27%
47%
covers Ümraniyespor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Ümraniyespor or Esenler Erokspor✗ Miss
72.8%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.25
Edge
-1.1%
26%
27%
47%
covers Ümraniyespor + Esenler Erokspor
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Draw or Esenler Erokspor✓ Hit
74.2%
Avg Implied 76.8% · @ 1.20
Edge
-2.6%
26%
27%
47%
covers Draw + Esenler Erokspor
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
@ 1.43+3.3%
Under
32.3%
@ 2.60-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
888Sport
2.90
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.66
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.57
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.3%
@ 3.15+1.8%
Under
68.7%
@ 1.32-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Under
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 8.57-0.3%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.50
Superbet
7.80
888Sport
7.50
Under
888Sport
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Ümraniyespor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 20.33-1.9%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
888Sport
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.7%
@ 1.17+0.1%
Under
20.3%
@ 4.55-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Betano
4.45
Superbet
4.40
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.4%
@ 1.84-2.8%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.86+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.88
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 3.66-3.8%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.24+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.20
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Esenler Erokspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.43-3.3%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.06+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
7.50
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ümraniyespor, so a minus line means Ümraniyespor give that many goals of a start and Esenler Erokspor receive them. At -1, Ümraniyespor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ümraniyespor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esenler Erokspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.47
0.67
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.52
0.47
0.67
0.79
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.35+4.3%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 2.94-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.19
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.63-0.2%
Under 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.42+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.2%
@ 6.53-1.0%
Under 2.5
86.8%
@ 1.08+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
William Hil
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.1%
@ 2.49+3.0%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.48-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Marathonbet
2.54
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.42
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 8.92-1.0%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.10
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.3%
@ 1.75+0.2%
Under
46.7%
@ 1.98-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.9%
@ 4.65-3.9%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.15+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.40
Under
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 9.75-6.1%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ümraniyespor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.07
0.57
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esenler Erokspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
0.87
0.47
1.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.10
0.52
0.87
0.47
1.36
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.7%
Under 1.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.6%
Under 2.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.4%
1.05
888Sport
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.9%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.1%
1.15
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.7%
1.17
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.4%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.8%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.2%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
-
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
74.2%
1.20
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.2%
1.21
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
-1.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.35
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.8%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
+1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ümraniyespor · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Batuhan Çelik26%
Bernardo Sousa20%
Talha Özdemir15%
Jurgen Bardhi12%
Engjell Hoti12%
Cebio Soukou9%
Barış Ekincier6%
Yusuf Kocatürk6%
Oğuz Yıldırım4%
Toheeb Kosoko4%
Ali Turap Bülbül4%
Emre Kaplan3%
Tomislav Glumac3%
Andrej Đokanović3%
Atalay Babacan3%
Cihan Topaloğlu0%
Kubilay Aktaş0%
Serkan Göksu0%
Burak Öksüz0%
Mustafa Eser0%
Yusuf Saitoğlu0%
Yusuf Deniz Sas0%
Toheeb Kosoko0%
Yunus Yilmaz0%
Talha Özdemir0%
Onur Yıldırım0%
Orhan Ugur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yusuf Saitoğlu25%
Yunus Yilmaz25%
Tomislav Glumac23%
Ali Turap Bülbül22%
Mustafa Eser20%
Talha Özdemir20%
Jurgen Bardhi19%
Burak Öksüz18%
Oğuz Yıldırım17%
Bernardo Sousa17%
Cebio Soukou14%
Serkan Göksu13%
Kubilay Aktaş12%
Engjell Hoti12%
Emre Kaplan10%
Andrej Đokanović10%
Toheeb Kosoko8%
Talha Özdemir8%
Atalay Babacan6%
Cihan Topaloğlu6%
Barış Ekincier6%
Yusuf Kocatürk6%
Yusuf Deniz Sas5%
Batuhan Çelik0%
Toheeb Kosoko0%
Onur Yıldırım0%
Orhan Ugur0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bernardo Sousa23%
Talha Özdemir23%
Batuhan Çelik12%
Atalay Babacan9%
Cebio Soukou9%
Toheeb Kosoko8%
Serkan Göksu6%
Jurgen Bardhi6%
Barış Ekincier6%
Yusuf Deniz Sas5%
Oğuz Yıldırım4%
Ali Turap Bülbül4%
Tomislav Glumac3%
Andrej Đokanović3%
Cihan Topaloğlu0%
Kubilay Aktaş0%
Burak Öksüz0%
Mustafa Eser0%
Emre Kaplan0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Yusuf Kocatürk0%
Yusuf Saitoğlu0%
Toheeb Kosoko0%
Yunus Yilmaz0%
Talha Özdemir0%
Onur Yıldırım0%
Orhan Ugur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Batuhan Çelik21%
Cebio Soukou14%
Bernardo Sousa13%
Barış Ekincier11%
Emre Kaplan7%
Jurgen Bardhi3%
Atalay Babacan0%
Cihan Topaloğlu0%
Kubilay Aktaş0%
Serkan Göksu0%
Tomislav Glumac0%
Oğuz Yıldırım0%
Andrej Đokanović0%
Burak Öksüz0%
Mustafa Eser0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Ali Turap Bülbül0%
Yusuf Kocatürk0%
Yusuf Saitoğlu0%
Yusuf Deniz Sas0%
Toheeb Kosoko0%
Yunus Yilmaz0%
Talha Özdemir0%
Toheeb Kosoko0%
Onur Yıldırım0%
Talha Özdemir0%
Orhan Ugur0%
Esenler Erokspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Muhamed Buljubašić33%
Nicolas Janvier0%
Erkan Kaş0%
Braian Samudio0%
Yusuf Erdoğan0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
Hayrullah Bilazer0%
Altin Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yusuf Erdoğan33%
Luccas Claro33%
Recep Niyaz33%
Erdem Canpolat33%
Muhamed Buljubašić33%
Nicolas Janvier0%
Erkan Kaş0%
Braian Samudio0%
Hayrullah Bilazer0%
Altin Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erkan Kaş33%
Nicolas Janvier0%
Braian Samudio0%
Yusuf Erdoğan0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
Hayrullah Bilazer0%
Altin Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
Muhamed Buljubašić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Braian Samudio33%
Altin Zeqiri33%
Nicolas Janvier0%
Erkan Kaş0%
Yusuf Erdoğan0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
Hayrullah Bilazer0%
Enes Alic 0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
Muhamed Buljubašić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Ümraniyespor's squad is €4m less valuable than Esenler Erokspor's (€7m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Ümraniyespor's attack is €1m less valuable than Esenler Erokspor's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Ümraniyespor's midfield is €1m less valuable than Esenler Erokspor's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Ümraniyespor's defence is €1m less valuable than Esenler Erokspor's (€2m vs €3m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Kayserispor
Bursaspor
Mardin 1969
Manisa F.K.
Sarıyer
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
Muğlaspor
Pendikspor
Vanspor FK
Bodrum FK
Antalyaspor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor