The match opens with a defensive tilt: both sides average fewer than one goal conceded per game against similar opposition, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with a 53% chance, a draw at 29%, and an away win at 18%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, a 14.6% probability. Ümraniyespor’s home form shows 1.85 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Muğlaspor’s away form is 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, both against similar opponents. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Under 5.5 at 97.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 95.8%. The home side’s recent draw and the away side’s recent 0-0 underline the tight, defensive nature expected in this encounter.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Muğlaspor snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the pre-match favourite, Home win, which had a 53% chance. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away victory. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%). The match saw Muğlaspor’s 2-game winning run extend, while Ümraniyespor left the field after a defeat, their recent form marked by a losing streak. The game’s low total of one goal matched the model’s expectation of a modest tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ümraniyespor win✗ Miss
52.5%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.48
Edge
+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 2.99
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.18
Dafabet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.02
1xBet
3.02
Betano
3.00
Muğlaspor win✓ Hit
18.4%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.76
Edge
-14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
Superbet
2.87
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.82
Betfair
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ümraniyespor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.93
1.14
1.00
1.38
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
2.00
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
1.48
1.16
1.92
1.00
1.08
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Muğlaspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
0.67
1.25
1.00
1.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.86
1.25
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.42+1.2%
Under 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.66-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.65
10Bet
2.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.4%
@ 2.31-1.8%
Under 2.5
61.6%
@ 1.55+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
@ 4.34-2.7%
Under 3.5
81.4%
@ 1.18+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
Pinnacle
4.53
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Under
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.2%
@ 1.96-4.8%
No
57.8%
@ 1.74+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
No
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
1xBet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.6%@ 6.26+7.6%
1-1
13.3%@ 5.46+5.3%
0-0
12.0%@ 6.95+5.7%
2-0
11.5%@ 10.51+7.4%
2-1
8.8%@ 9.12+4.0%
0-1 ✓
7.0%@ 6.61+0.4%
3-0
5.6%@ 24.65+3.8%
1-2
4.6%@ 9.69+0.1%
Ümraniyespor goals ↓
Muğlaspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.0%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
15%
13%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
8.8%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ümraniyespor goals (down), columns = Muğlaspor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Ümraniyespor is 1.00 points worse than Muğlaspor in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Ümraniyespor is 0.20 goals better than Muğlaspor in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Ümraniyespor is 0.80 goals worse than Muğlaspor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Ümraniyespor is 8.5 percentage points better than Muğlaspor in terms of average possession (52% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ümraniyespor
For 5.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Muğlaspor
For 3.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 17.7 · Total 33.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ümraniyespor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.6
9.4
4.0
3.8
4.3
23.2
22.1
24.4
vs Stronger (7)
9.0
8.5
9.7
4.3
5.2
3.0
23.0
22.8
23.3
vs Similar (43)
9.0
8.6
9.4
4.0
3.5
4.5
23.3
22.0
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
36%
38%
52%
44%
60%
65%
56%
75%
% under line
63%
64%
62%
48%
56%
40%
35%
44%
25%
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Muğlaspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
7.0
5.0
11.0
2.2
2.5
2.0
33.0
34.5
30.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
7.0
5.0
11.0
2.9
2.5
3.3
33.0
34.5
30.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
0%
100%
33%
50%
20%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
67%
100%
0%
67%
50%
80%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.5
Antalyaspor
9.2
Bodrum FK
9.1
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Bursaspor
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Iğdır FK
9.0
Esenler Erokspor
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Mardin 1969
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.5
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Batman Petrolspor
8.0
Sarıyer
7.9
Muğlaspor
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Muğlaspor
6.7
Batman Petrolspor
6.5
Antalyaspor
5.3
Vanspor FK
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Pendikspor
5.1
Boluspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Iğdır FK
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.6
İstanbulspor
4.6
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.3
Ümraniyespor
4.2
Bodrum FK
4.2
Mardin 1969
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
33.0
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
28.8
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.2
Pendikspor
26.8
Batman Petrolspor
25.8
Boluspor
25.7
Kayserispor
24.9
Bandırmaspor
24.1
Bodrum FK
24.1
Iğdır FK
23.6
Sarıyer
23.6
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Sivasspor
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.1
Mardin 1969
23.0
Esenler Erokspor
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.2%
@ 2.39+3.6%
Under 9.5
57.8%
@ 1.50-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Superbet
2.32
Under
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.0%
Under 3.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ümraniyespor or Draw✗ Miss
81.6%
Avg Implied 67.3% · @ 1.36
Edge
+14.4%
53%
29%
18%
covers Ümraniyespor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Ümraniyespor or Muğlaspor✓ Hit
70.9%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.2%
53%
29%
18%
covers Ümraniyespor + Muğlaspor
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Draw or Muğlaspor✓ Hit
47.5%
Avg Implied 63.1% · @ 1.45
Edge
-15.6%
53%
29%
18%
covers Draw + Muğlaspor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.8%
@ 1.36+8.6%
Under
23.2%
@ 2.91-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.88
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.9%
@ 2.74+9.1%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.40-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Marathonbet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 6.90+4.7%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.07-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Ümraniyespor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 16.00+0.1%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.01-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Muğlaspor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
53.4%
@ 1.41-12.3%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.69+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.89
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.71
1xBet
2.70
Muğlaspor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 2.98-13.2%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.34+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Muğlaspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 7.69-7.9%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.06+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Muğlaspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 17.38-4.7%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ümraniyespor, so a minus line means Ümraniyespor give that many goals of a start and Muğlaspor receive them. At -1, Ümraniyespor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ümraniyespor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ümraniyespor)Actual: Muğlaspor
Ümraniyespor -2
10.9%
@ 11.65+3.3%
Draw -2
16.5%
@ 6.73+3.4%
Muğlaspor +2
72.7%
@ 1.11-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Ümraniyespor)Actual: Muğlaspor
Ümraniyespor -1
27.3%
@ 5.23+10.7%
Draw -1
25.2%
@ 3.84+2.5%
Muğlaspor +1
47.5%
@ 1.44-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.35
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.35
Away
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.38
Handicap +1 (Ümraniyespor)Actual: Draw
Ümraniyespor +1
81.6%
@ 1.36+18.1%
Draw +1
12.6%
@ 4.03-8.9%
Muğlaspor -1
5.8%
@ 5.82-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Ümraniyespor)Actual: Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor +2
94.2%
@ 1.10+11.1%
Draw +2
4.5%
@ 8.50-6.3%
Muğlaspor -2
1.3%
@ 15.00-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ümraniyespor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.79
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.52
0.83
0.42
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Muğlaspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
78% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
64.6%
@ 1.48+2.4%
Under 0.5
35.4%
@ 2.44-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.63
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.3%
@ 3.32+1.5%
Under 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.28-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.50
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.32
1xBet
3.32
William Hil
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.9%
@ 8.67-1.8%
Under 2.5
91.1%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
10.00
BetVictor
9.50
1xBet
8.60
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.2%
@ 2.26+1.2%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.57-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 7.77-1.5%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 11.00-6.9%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Muğlaspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.4%
@ 2.38+0.6%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.51-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Muğlaspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 8.83-1.5%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.40
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Muğlaspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ümraniyespor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
1.14
0.64
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.64
1.08
0.58
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Muğlaspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
78% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.31+2.6%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 3.10-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Under
Marathonbet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
William Hil
3.10
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 2.49+2.6%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.47-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.52
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
1xBet
2.47
Under
Betano
1.52
William Hil
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 5.95+2.0%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.10-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.06
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.1%
@ 1.90+4.5%
Under
46.9%
@ 1.79-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 5.67+0.3%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.10-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 10.00-5.7%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Muğlaspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.1%
@ 1.98-2.4%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.72+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Muğlaspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 6.10-1.6%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.08+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Muğlaspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 10.50-6.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
1.08
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.10
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.06
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
82.2%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.8%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.6%
1.36
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+14.4%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
81.6%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
-
-
+18.1%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
81.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.36
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
72.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-6.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.9%
1.31
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.28
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
-1.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ümraniyespor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Blanco33%
S. Hostikka0%
C. Topaloğlu0%
A. Yaşar0%
S. Göksu0%
Tomislav Glumac0%
O. Yıldırım0%
Andrej Đokanović0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
C. Topaloğlu33%
S. Göksu33%
Tomislav Glumac33%
O. Yıldırım33%
Andrej Đokanović33%
S. Hostikka0%
Álex Blanco0%
A. Yaşar0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
S. Göksu33%
S. Hostikka0%
Álex Blanco0%
C. Topaloğlu0%
A. Yaşar0%
Tomislav Glumac0%
O. Yıldırım0%
Andrej Đokanović0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hostikka33%
Álex Blanco33%
C. Topaloğlu0%
A. Yaşar0%
S. Göksu0%
Tomislav Glumac0%
O. Yıldırım0%
Andrej Đokanović0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Sarıyer
Kayserispor
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor