UN Kaerjeng 97 face Progres Niederkorn on 12 November in Luxembourg’s National Division, and the model’s favourite is an away win. The odds reflect the stark contrast in form: Kaerjeng’s home record shows only 0.5 goals scored and 3.67 conceded against stronger opposition, while Niederkorn’s away attack averages 2.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against weaker teams. The probability of an away victory sits at 63%, with a 21% chance of a draw and 16% for a home win. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9.8% probability. The model also picks Over 1.5 goals at 85.5%. Recent form adds context: Kaerjeng are on a two-game winning run after a 6-0 win over Swift Hesperange, whereas Niederkorn are still recovering from two straight defeats, having lost 1-2 to US Mondorf-les-Bains. These dynamics reinforce the prediction that Niederkorn will secure the victory.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Away win, failed to materialise as UN Kaerjeng 97 secured a 2-0 home victory. The model had given the away side a 63% chance of triumph, yet the result was a home win, so the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 2-0 produced a home win, contrary to the 63% probability for an away win. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.5% probability, hit as the match saw two goals. The game also featured a 1-2 most likely score at 9.8% and a 1-1 at 9.5%. UN Kaerjeng’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Progres Niederkorn returned to winning after two straight defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UN Kaerjeng 97 win✓ Hit
15.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn win✗ Miss
63.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UN Kaerjeng 97
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.37
0.93
2.47
1.27
2.27
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
3.07
0.50
3.67
0.88
2.62
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.67
1.38
1.50
1.71
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.07
2.40
0.87
2.13
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
2.15
0.92
2.00
0.83
2.29
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
2.53
1.20
2.75
1.00
2.29
1.43
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
7.4%
0-1
7.1%
0-3
6.9%
2-2
5.3%
2-1
4.6%
UN Kaerjeng 97 goals ↓
Progres Niederkorn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
7.1%
9.1%
6.9%
3.9%
1
2.9%
9.5%
9.8%
7.4%
4.2%
2
2.0%
4.6%
5.3%
4.0%
2.3%
3
0.7%
1.7%
1.9%
1.4%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UN Kaerjeng 97 goals (down), columns = Progres Niederkorn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.20
F91 Dudelange
2.03
Swift Hesperange
2.03
Progres Niederkorn
1.83
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.50
UNA Strassen
1.47
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.30
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.27
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.27
Wiltz
1.10
Mondercange
1.07
US Rumelange
1.00
US Hostert
1.00
Fola Esch
0.94
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.94
Marisca Mersch
0.87
Schifflange
0.83
UN Kaerjeng 97 is 0.90 points worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Differdange 03
2.33
Swift Hesperange
2.20
US Rumelange
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.97
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.83
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.70
Union Titus Petange
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.53
Victoria Rosport
1.50
Wiltz
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.33
Marisca Mersch
1.33
Schifflange
1.20
Fola Esch
1.13
Mondercange
1.10
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.03
US Hostert
1.00
UN Kaerjeng 97 is 0.77 goals worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.77
US Hostert
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.17
F91 Dudelange
1.20
UNA Strassen
1.27
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.37
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.61
Wiltz
1.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.77
Mondercange
1.90
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.93
Schifflange
1.97
US Rumelange
2.00
Fola Esch
2.03
Marisca Mersch
2.07
UN Kaerjeng 97 is 0.45 goals worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
UN Kaerjeng 97
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Progres Niederkorn
For 4.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
UN Kaerjeng 97
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (42)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (45)
10.8
11.0
10.5
0.7
0.6
0.8
29.0
29.0
-
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
11.0
9.0
6.5
6.0
7.0
29.0
29.0
-
vs Similar (20)
11.5
11.0
12.0
0.8
0.7
1.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
50%
9%
9%
9%
100%
100%
-
% under line
25%
0%
50%
91%
91%
91%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Progres Niederkorn
10.8
FC Differdange 03
10.0
F91 Dudelange
9.3
Swift Hesperange
8.6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.5
Fola Esch
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
8.8
Progres Niederkorn
7.5
Fola Esch
7.0
Swift Hesperange
5.8
F91 Dudelange
5.1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
48.0
Swift Hesperange
31.5
Progres Niederkorn
29.0
F91 Dudelange
17.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UN Kaerjeng 97
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.40
1.33
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.64
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.67
0.50
0.88
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.13
0.33
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.38
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.47
1.50
0.38
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UN Kaerjeng 97
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.23
0.53
1.13
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.43
0.17
1.67
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.00
0.88
0.62
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.63
1.27
0.53
1.33
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.54
1.33
0.50
1.57
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.73
1.25
0.62
1.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97 and Progres Niederkorn have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97 and Progres Niederkorn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97 and Progres Niederkorn have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97 and Progres Niederkorn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Differdange 03
Swift Hesperange
F91 Dudelange
AS Jeunesse Esch
UNA Strassen
Victoria Rosport
Union Titus Petange
US Mondorf-les-bains
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Wiltz
Mondercange
Fola Esch
Marisca Mersch
Schifflange
US Rumelange
US Hostert