The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.5 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.8% chance. The favourite result is an away win, with a 52% probability, followed by a 25% chance of a home win and a 23% chance of a draw. UN Kaerjeng 97, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded, while Swift Hesperange, on the road to a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded. Recent form shows UN Kaerjeng 97 on a two-game winning run after a 6-0 victory over Swift Hesperange, whereas Swift Hesperange has suffered five straight defeats, last losing 0-6 to UN Kaerjeng 97. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 92.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 89.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.4%, Over 1.5 at 87.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 82.2%, Under 10.5 corners at 81.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.4% and Under 9.5 corners at 72.0%.
Results analysis
The match saw Swift Hesperange extend their win streak, winning 0-3 to keep the model’s predicted away victory alive. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was given a 52% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Over 2.5 cards hit at 92.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 89.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.4%, Over 1.5 at 87.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 82.2%, Under 10.5 corners at 81.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.4%, and Under 9.5 corners at 72.0%. All picks settled as predicted, confirming the model’s accuracy across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UN Kaerjeng 97 win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange win✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UN Kaerjeng 97
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
1.12
1.50
0.86
1.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.79
1.12
1.88
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.25
1.12
1.12
1.12
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swift Hesperange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.62
1.12
1.57
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.62
1.20
1.70
1.64
1.55
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
0.22
2.33
0.17
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.6%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
6.3%
0-1
5.4%
0-3 ✓
4.6%
UN Kaerjeng 97 goals ↓
Swift Hesperange goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
5.4%
6.6%
4.6%
2.4%
1
3.4%
9.8%
9.3%
6.5%
3.4%
2
3.0%
6.3%
6.6%
4.6%
2.4%
3
1.4%
3.0%
3.1%
2.1%
1.1%
4
0.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UN Kaerjeng 97 goals (down), columns = Swift Hesperange goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atert Bissen
2.17
FC Differdange 03
2.17
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.93
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.27
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.07
Jeunesse Canach
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Wiltz
1.00
Mamer
0.97
Rodange 91
0.83
Union Titus Petange
0.83
UN Kaerjeng 97 is 0.20 points better than Swift Hesperange in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atert Bissen
2.33
FC Differdange 03
2.10
F91 Dudelange
1.97
UNA Strassen
1.90
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.70
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.47
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
US Hostert
1.17
Victoria Rosport
1.10
Mamer
1.06
Swift Hesperange
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Jeunesse Canach
0.97
Rodange 91
0.93
Union Titus Petange
0.87
Wiltz
0.00
UN Kaerjeng 97 is 0.40 goals better than Swift Hesperange in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wiltz
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.80
UNA Strassen
0.87
Atert Bissen
0.90
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.13
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Jeunesse Canach
1.45
Swift Hesperange
1.53
Progres Niederkorn
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.60
Union Titus Petange
1.63
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
Victoria Rosport
1.67
US Hostert
1.87
Mamer
1.90
Rodange 91
2.17
UN Kaerjeng 97 is 0.07 goals worse than Swift Hesperange in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
F91 Dudelange
61%
Progres Niederkorn
60%
UNA Strassen
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
56%
FC Differdange 03
54%
US Hostert
53%
Rodange 91
52%
US Mondorf-les-bains
52%
Atert Bissen
51%
Jeunesse Canach
49%
Swift Hesperange
48%
AS Jeunesse Esch
46%
Mamer
45%
Union Titus Petange
45%
UN Kaerjeng 97
41%
Victoria Rosport
40%
UN Kaerjeng 97 is 7.0 percentage points worse than Swift Hesperange in terms of average possession (41% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
UN Kaerjeng 97
For 3.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swift Hesperange
For 3.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 16.3 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
UN Kaerjeng 97
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
6.0
10.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
21.0
14.0
28.0
vs Stronger (24)
8.0
6.0
10.0
0.4
0.2
0.6
21.0
14.0
28.0
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.2
0.0
0.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
4%
0%
8%
50%
0%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
96%
100%
92%
50%
100%
0%
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swift Hesperange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.3
6.3
-
0.4
0.8
0.0
29.3
29.3
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
6.3
6.3
-
0.6
1.1
0.0
29.3
29.3
-
vs Weaker (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
6%
12%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
94%
88%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mamer
11.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
10.5
Progres Niederkorn
10.3
Rodange 91
9.5
FC Differdange 03
9.2
Victoria Rosport
9.0
F91 Dudelange
8.9
Jeunesse Canach
8.8
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.5
US Hostert
8.2
UNA Strassen
8.0
UN Kaerjeng 97
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.8
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.7
Atert Bissen
7.0
Union Titus Petange
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rodange 91
8.3
FC Differdange 03
8.0
Union Titus Petange
7.0
Victoria Rosport
6.7
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.7
Mamer
6.5
Progres Niederkorn
6.4
UNA Strassen
6.3
Swift Hesperange
6.1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
6.0
US Hostert
6.0
Atert Bissen
5.7
Jeunesse Canach
5.5
UN Kaerjeng 97
5.3
F91 Dudelange
5.1
US Mondorf-les-bains
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
37.0
Union Titus Petange
32.0
Swift Hesperange
30.6
Jeunesse Canach
30.5
AS Jeunesse Esch
30.0
Mamer
28.0
US Hostert
28.0
Atert Bissen
27.7
UNA Strassen
27.5
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
27.0
Rodange 91
27.0
Victoria Rosport
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
25.0
UN Kaerjeng 97
21.0
F91 Dudelange
18.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
28.0%
Under 9.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.2%
Under 3.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.4%
Under 21.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UN Kaerjeng 97
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.50
0.69
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.88
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.59
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swift Hesperange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
0.56
0.56
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.30
1.67
0.00
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UN Kaerjeng 97
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.62
0.81
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.23
0.62
1.00
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.71
0.62
0.62
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Swift Hesperange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swift Hesperange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.80
0.78
1.00
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swift Hesperange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97's squad is €1m more valuable than Swift Hesperange's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97 and Swift Hesperange have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97 and Swift Hesperange have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UN Kaerjeng 97 and Swift Hesperange have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →