The model deems Victoria Rosport the clear favourite, giving them a 62% chance of victory against UN Kaerjeng 97. That high rating stems from Rosport’s strong away form - averaging two goals scored and conceding 2.57 against similar opponents - while Kaerjeng’s home record is weaker, with only 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The match is expected to see 4.2 goals on average, with the most likely total being 6 + goals at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Rosport, with an 8.2% chance. The model’s suggested picks reinforce the high-scoring narrative: Over 1.5 goals at 92.8%, Over 2.5 at 79.0%, and both teams to score at 73.2%. Home win probability sits at 19%, a draw at 19%, and away win at 62%. The model’s selections are therefore: Over 1.5 (92.8%), Over 2.5 (79.0%), BTTS Yes (73.2%).
The pre-match favourite, Victoria Rosport, was tipped to win with a 62% probability, but the game ended in a 2-1 home triumph for UN Kaerjeng 97, extending their two-game winning run. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s other selections all proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit at 92.8%, Over 2.5 goals hit at 79.0%, and BTTS Yes hit at 73.2%. The final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win, contradicting the predicted away victory. The match delivered the upset the model did not foresee, while its total-goals and both-teams-to-score picks performed as expected.
UN Kaerjeng 97| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.89 | 2.36 | 0.79 | 2.93 | 1.00 | 1.79 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.86 | 2.86 | 0.57 | 3.43 | 1.14 | 2.29 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.00 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 2.33 | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 14% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Victoria Rosport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.64 | 1.93 | 1.64 | 1.14 | 1.64 | 2.71 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.83 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 3.17 |
| vs Similar (14) | 2.00 | 1.71 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 4.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 18% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Victoria Rosport goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| 1 | 1.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% |
| 2 | 1.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| 3 | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
UN Kaerjeng 97
Victoria Rosport
UN Kaerjeng 97| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (28) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (14) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Victoria Rosport| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (28) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (12) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
UN Kaerjeng 97| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.93 | 0.36 | 1.43 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.43 | 1.21 | 0.29 | 1.86 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 46% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Victoria Rosport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 0.93 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 54% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
UN Kaerjeng 97| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.46 | 1.43 | 0.43 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.43 | 1.64 | 0.29 | 1.57 | 0.57 | 1.71 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 25% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Victoria Rosport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.86 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.29 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 32% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/22 | A | 3-0 |
UN Kaerjeng 97| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/04/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 23/04/23 | H | 0-6 | |
| 16/04/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/04/23 | H | 0-8 | |
| 05/04/23 | H | 0-3 | |
| 02/04/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 17/03/23 | A | 4-1 | |
| 12/03/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 05/03/23 | A | 1-1 |
Victoria Rosport| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/04/23 | A | 5-1 | |
| 22/04/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/04/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 08/04/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/04/23 | A | 1-5 | |
| 29/03/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 19/03/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/03/23 | H | 4-2 | |
| 05/03/23 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swift Hesperange | 30 | 77 | 80% | 2.6 | 100 | 28 | +72 | 4.3 | 93% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | - |
| 2 | Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 70 | 73% | 2.3 | 67 | 31 | +36 | 3.3 | 73% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | F91 Dudelange | 30 | 67 | 73% | 2.2 | 86 | 38 | +48 | 4.1 | 93% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 4 | Union Titus Petange | 30 | 59 | 60% | 2.0 | 62 | 38 | +24 | 3.3 | 87% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 45 | 47% | 1.5 | 60 | 43 | +17 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 45 | 47% | 1.5 | 52 | 52 | +0 | 3.5 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 2.8 | 80% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 43 | 39 | +4 | 2.7 | 70% | 43% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 9 | UNA Strassen | 30 | 39 | 40% | 1.3 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 2.6 | 70% | 57% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Wiltz | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 3.6 | 90% | 77% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 3.5 | 87% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | - |
| 12 | Mondercange | 30 | 29 | 23% | 1.0 | 41 | 55 | -14 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 13 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 31 | 28 | 19% | 0.9 | 33 | 71 | -38 | 3.4 | 84% | 58% | 45% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Fola Esch | 31 | 27 | 26% | 0.9 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 3.6 | 81% | 71% | 52% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.4 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 3.4 | 90% | 77% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | - |
| 16 | US Hostert | 30 | 18 | 13% | 0.6 | 20 | 65 | -45 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.2 | - |
| 17 | Jeunesse Canach | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 6.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 18 | Bettembourg | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |