UNA Strassen is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting a 66% chance of a home victory. This is largely due to the away side's struggles at AS Jeunesse Esch's venue, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per match. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 2-0, with a 13.5% chance of occurrence.
UNA Strassen has been in good form at home, scoring an average of 2.82 goals and conceding just 0.45. In contrast, AS Jeunesse Esch has struggled away from home, scoring an average of 0.67 goals and conceding 1.67. The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals (75.1% chance) and Under 3.5 goals (72.6% chance). UNA Strassen is the model's selection for a home win (66%), with a 22% chance of a draw and an 11% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
UNA Strassen's win extends their run of 3 consecutive victories. The final score was 1-0, confirming the actual result was a home win. The model's call, a home win, was correct.
The pre-match favourite was the home win, with a 67% probability. The model's selection of a home win was correct. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 72.3% probability, but Over 1.5 goals missed, with a 75.3% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
UNA Strassen win✓ Hit
67.3%
Avg Implied 68.7% · @ 1.32
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied 20.3% · @ 4.45
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.75
Pinnacle
4.72
Dafabet
4.70
1xBet
4.65
Unibet
4.50
AS Jeunesse Esch win✗ Miss
10.8%
Avg Implied 10.9% · @ 8.29
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
9.60
1xBet
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.50
William Hil
8.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UNA Strassen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.80
2.20
0.60
1.67
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.95
0.86
2.27
0.73
1.64
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.33
2.67
0.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.21
1.14
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.40
0.60
1.20
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.15
1.56
1.11
1.27
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.3%
@ 1.19-1.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
@ 3.89+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Under
1xBet
3.90
888Sport
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.68-5.5%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 2.05+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.08
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
@ 2.66-6.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
@ 1.39+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
888Sport
2.70
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
888Sport
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.3%
@ 1.96-3.1%
No
56.7%
@ 1.70+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
888Sport
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Unibet
1.91
No
888Sport
1.73
William Hil
1.73
1xBet
1.69
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.8%@ 5.79+7.2%
1-0 ✓
13.0%@ 6.25+6.9%
1-1
10.3%@ 8.20+5.7%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.67+4.3%
3-0
9.1%@ 7.92+4.3%
0-0
8.0%@ 11.60+4.7%
3-1
6.1%@ 10.50+2.5%
4-0
4.5%@ 12.83+1.5%
UNA Strassen goals ↓
AS Jeunesse Esch goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
3.8%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
10%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.3%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.1%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.5%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UNA Strassen goals (down), columns = AS Jeunesse Esch goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
UNA Strassen is 2.40 points better than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
UNA Strassen is 0.60 goals better than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
UNA Strassen is 1.80 goals better than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
UNA Strassen
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AS Jeunesse Esch
For 3.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 20.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
UNA Strassen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.5
8.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
28.2
29.0
27.5
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
6.5
6.0
7.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
29.0
26.0
32.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.0
9.0
9.0
1.6
1.8
1.5
27.5
32.0
23.0
% over line
0%
0%
0%
6%
4%
7%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
94%
96%
93%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
10.0
7.5
0.6
0.9
0.4
29.0
29.0
29.0
vs Stronger (15)
6.0
-
6.0
0.3
0.0
0.7
32.0
-
32.0
vs Similar (35)
9.7
10.0
9.0
0.8
1.4
0.3
28.0
29.0
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
10%
12%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
90%
88%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.2%
Under 9.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
86.8%
Under 3.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
88.5%
Under 21.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
UNA Strassen or Draw✓ Hit
89.2%
Avg Implied -
67%
22%
11%
covers UNA Strassen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen or AS Jeunesse Esch✓ Hit
78.1%
Avg Implied -
67%
22%
11%
covers UNA Strassen + AS Jeunesse Esch
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied -
67%
22%
11%
covers Draw + AS Jeunesse Esch
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UNA Strassen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.73
0.20
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.41
0.45
0.27
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.45
0.56
0.44
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UNA Strassen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.43
1.47
0.40
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.45
1.82
0.45
1.00
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.79
0.64
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.67
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.3%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
-
-1.3%
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.3%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
888Sport
1.36
+6.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UNA Strassen's squad is €1m more valuable than AS Jeunesse Esch's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UNA Strassen and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
UNA Strassen and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
UNA Strassen and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
US Rumelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange