UNA Strassen’s dominance at home is clear, with a 96 % chance of victory and a 4 % draw probability, leaving only a 1 % chance for US Rumelange to win. The model therefore picks a home win, supported by the fact that UNA’s average 2.67 goals per match and 0.00 conceded at home against weaker opposition outweigh Rumelange’s 2.5 scored and 1.75 conceded away against stronger teams. The expected total is 4.7 goals, and the most likely total is 6 + goals at 31 %. The single most probable scoreline is 4-0, with a 13.5 % chance. UNA’s recent four-game winning streak, ending with a 1-0 win over Progres Niederkorn, fuels confidence, while Rumelange’s recent defeat to F91 Dudelange dampens their prospects. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.9 %), Home +2 handicap (99.9 %), Home or Draw (99.3 %), Home +1 handicap (99.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (99.3 %), Home over 0.5 goals (98.7 %), Home or Away (96.5 %), and Home win (95.7 %).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UNA Strassen win
96.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
3.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange win
0.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UNA Strassen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.73
2.00
0.62
1.57
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.92
0.71
2.15
0.69
1.64
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
2.10
1.80
2.40
2.60
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
2.20
2.10
1.80
2.40
2.60
1.80
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (33%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
95.4%
Under 1.5
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
85.9%
Under 2.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
70.8%
Under 3.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
33.1%
No
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
4-0
13.2%
3-0
12.0%
5-0
11.7%
6-0
8.6%
2-0
8.1%
7-0
5.4%
4-1
5.4%
3-1
4.9%
UNA Strassen goals ↓
US Rumelange goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.0%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1
3.5%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
2
8.1%
3.3%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
3
12%
4.9%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
4
13%
5.4%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UNA Strassen goals (down), columns = US Rumelange goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
UNA Strassen is 1.80 points better than US Rumelange in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
UNA Strassen is 0.40 goals better than US Rumelange in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
UNA Strassen is 2.20 goals better than US Rumelange in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
UNA Strassen
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
US Rumelange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
UNA Strassen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.5
8.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
28.2
29.0
27.5
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
6.5
6.0
7.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
29.0
26.0
32.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.0
9.0
9.0
1.6
1.8
1.5
27.5
32.0
23.0
% over line
0%
0%
0%
6%
4%
7%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
94%
96%
93%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.8%
Under 9.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
87.7%
Under 3.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.7%
Under 21.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
UNA Strassen or Draw
99.3%
Avg Implied -
96%
3%
1%
covers UNA Strassen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen or US Rumelange
96.7%
Avg Implied -
96%
3%
1%
covers UNA Strassen + US Rumelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or US Rumelange
4.0%
Avg Implied -
96%
3%
1%
covers Draw + US Rumelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5
Over
98.8%
Under
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5
Over
93.4%
Under
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5
Over
81.6%
Under
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 3.5
Over
64.2%
Under
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to UNA Strassen, so a minus line means UNA Strassen give that many goals of a start and US Rumelange receive them. At -1, UNA Strassen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal UNA Strassen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (UNA Strassen)
UNA Strassen -2
74.4%
Draw -2
13.8%
US Rumelange +2
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (UNA Strassen)
UNA Strassen -1
88.2%
Draw -1
7.7%
US Rumelange +1
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (UNA Strassen)
UNA Strassen +1
99.3%
Draw +1
0.6%
US Rumelange -1
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (UNA Strassen)
UNA Strassen +2
99.9%
Draw +2
0.1%
US Rumelange -2
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UNA Strassen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.29
0.46
0.23
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UNA Strassen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.38
0.44
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
0.42
1.69
0.46
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -1 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -2 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UNA Strassen's squad is €3m more valuable than US Rumelange's (€3m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UNA Strassen and US Rumelange have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
UNA Strassen and US Rumelange have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
UNA Strassen's defence is €1m more valuable than US Rumelange's (€1m vs €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
AS Jeunesse Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange