UNA Strassen, the clear favourite, boasts a 69% chance of winning at home, thanks in part to their opponent's struggles on the road. Victoria Rosport has averaged just 1.1 goals scored away from home against similar-strength opponents, and UNA Strassen has capitalized on this weakness, scoring 2.7 goals per game at home. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 9.9%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring 13.6% of the time. UNA Strassen's home scoring and conceding form is strong, with 2.7 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. In contrast, Victoria Rosport's away form is poor, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The model's selection is the home win, with a 69% probability. The model also selects the Under 9.5 corners at 88.4%, and the Over 1.5 goals at 77.2%. The home win percentage is 69%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 10%.
Results analysis
The win extends UNA Strassen's run of two consecutive victories, as they convincingly defeated Victoria Rosport 4-0. The model's selection, home win, proved correct with a pre-match probability of 69%. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 77.2%. The model's call on the favourite was spot on, as the home side dominated the match. Meanwhile, Victoria Rosport's four straight defeats prior to this match were a stark contrast to UNA Strassen's recent form.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
UNA Strassen win✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 62.9% · @ 1.43
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.52
Dafabet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.88
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
888Sport
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Victoria Rosport win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied 13.8% · @ 6.52
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.95
Dafabet
7.40
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Betano
6.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
UNA Strassen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.80
2.20
0.60
1.60
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.91
0.86
2.27
0.73
1.55
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.33
2.67
0.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.77
1.31
1.54
1.18
1.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.69
0.83
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.82
1.71
1.71
1.30
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
@ 1.18+0.4%
Under 1.5
22.8%
@ 3.92-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
888Sport
4.20
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.96
Marathonbet
3.96
10Bet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.67-2.8%
Under 2.5
47.8%
@ 2.04+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.73
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.07
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.0%
@ 2.57-5.5%
Under 3.5
70.0%
@ 1.42+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.85
Unibet
2.80
888Sport
2.50
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
888Sport
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.5%
@ 1.81-6.0%
No
55.5%
@ 1.84+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
William Hil
1.80
888Sport
1.80
No
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.81
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.6%@ 6.49+7.7%
1-0
12.2%@ 6.67+6.5%
1-1
9.9%@ 7.35+4.8%
3-0
9.4%@ 8.94+5.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.29+4.2%
0-0
7.2%@ 11.83+4.0%
3-1
6.5%@ 10.49+2.9%
4-0 ✓
4.9%@ 15.00+2.3%
UNA Strassen goals ↓
Victoria Rosport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
3.4%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
1
12%
9.9%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.4%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.4%
6.5%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.9%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = UNA Strassen goals (down), columns = Victoria Rosport goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
UNA Strassen is 2.20 points better than Victoria Rosport in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
UNA Strassen and Victoria Rosport are level in goals scored per game (both 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
UNA Strassen is 2.20 goals better than Victoria Rosport in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
UNA Strassen
For 3.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 7.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 17.0 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Victoria Rosport
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
UNA Strassen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.5
8.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
28.2
29.0
27.5
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
6.5
6.0
7.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
29.0
26.0
32.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.0
9.0
9.0
1.6
2.3
1.3
27.5
32.0
23.0
% over line
0%
0%
0%
6%
4%
7%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
94%
96%
93%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
11.5
8.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
25.0
23.0
26.0
vs Stronger (22)
8.0
9.0
7.0
0.9
0.8
0.9
23.0
23.0
23.0
vs Similar (28)
11.5
14.0
9.0
0.4
0.8
0.2
29.0
-
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
6%
9%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
94%
91%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.9%
@ 2.19-9.1%
Under 9.5
67.1%
@ 1.59+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.19
Under
1xBet
1.59
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
86.8%
Under 3.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.6%
Under 21.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
UNA Strassen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.37
0.47
0.20
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.41
0.45
0.27
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.77
0.62
0.35
0.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.54
0.50
0.17
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.88
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
UNA Strassen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.73
0.40
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.45
1.82
0.45
1.00
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.17
2.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.54
0.92
0.82
1.12
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.15
0.33
1.17
0.86
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.94
0.71
0.71
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.4%
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.8%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+9.0%
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.2%
1.18
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UNA Strassen's squad is €1m more valuable than Victoria Rosport's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
UNA Strassen and Victoria Rosport have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
UNA Strassen and Victoria Rosport have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
UNA Strassen and Victoria Rosport have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
US Rumelange
Wiltz
AS Jeunesse Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange