This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.70
1.00
1.73
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
2.29
0.88
2.38
0.56
2.22
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.92
1.14
1.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
5.8%
0-1
5.7%
3-1 ✓
5.4%
União de Leiria goals ↓
Vilaverdense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
5.7%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.6%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.8%
5.4%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = União de Leiria goals (down), columns = Vilaverdense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
União de Leiria is 0.41 points better than Vilaverdense in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
União de Leiria is 0.41 goals better than Vilaverdense in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
União de Leiria is 0.56 goals better than Vilaverdense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
União de Leiria is 3.5 percentage points better than Vilaverdense in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
União de Leiria
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vilaverdense
For 5.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 16.5 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
União de Leiria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (28)
9.9
9.9
10.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
26.6
25.9
27.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
9.9
10.0
9.9
3.3
3.1
3.6
26.5
26.2
26.9
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
9.5
11.0
2.6
4.0
1.7
26.7
24.5
31.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
54%
50%
57%
78%
70%
88%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
46%
50%
43%
22%
30%
12%
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
10.8
11.3
10.2
3.0
3.1
2.9
29.4
28.9
29.9
vs Stronger (17)
11.2
12.4
10.2
3.1
3.4
2.9
29.2
29.8
28.7
vs Similar (13)
10.2
10.2
10.3
2.9
2.9
3.0
29.6
28.0
32.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
74%
80%
67%
50%
53%
47%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
26%
20%
33%
50%
47%
53%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nacional
12.4
AVS
11.8
Oliveirense
11.1
Feirense
10.8
Tondela
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Academico Viseu
10.8
FC Porto B
10.6
Leixoes
10.5
Benfica B
10.4
Penafiel
10.2
Mafra
10.2
Pacos Ferreira
10.1
União de Leiria
9.9
Torreense
9.7
CF Os Belenenses
9.6
Maritimo
9.6
Santa Clara
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.3
Maritimo
6.2
Oliveirense
6.2
Leixoes
5.8
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
Tondela
5.6
Benfica B
5.6
FC Porto B
5.6
Nacional
5.5
AVS
5.4
Torreense
5.3
Penafiel
5.3
Academico Viseu
5.2
União de Leiria
5.0
Mafra
4.9
Feirense
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
31.6
Maritimo
30.7
Oliveirense
30.1
Penafiel
30.0
Santa Clara
29.7
Leixoes
29.5
Vilaverdense
29.4
Tondela
28.3
Torreense
27.9
Feirense
27.7
Nacional
27.6
AVS
27.3
União de Leiria
26.6
Benfica B
26.5
Mafra
26.3
Academico Viseu
25.9
FC Porto B
25.6
CF Os Belenenses
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.2%
Under 9.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.8%
Under 3.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
88.0%
Under 21.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
União de Leiria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.68
0.50
1.00
0.57
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.52
1.08
0.58
0.00
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
0.50
0.50
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.87
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (17)
0.24
1.06
0.25
1.25
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.29
0.43
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
União de Leiria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.71
0.57
0.71
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.78
0.33
0.75
0.36
0.82
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.50
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.73
0.87
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.24
0.62
1.12
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
0.86
0.57
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
União de Leiria · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Muñoz33%
Victor Rofino33%
Pablo Fernández29%
Jordan van der Gaag20%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes17%
Jair da Silva17%
Dieu-Merci Michel14%
João Silva12%
Daniel Borges12%
José Pedro10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Maga0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
Genaro0%
Marc Baró0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Borges50%
Maga45%
Marc Baró36%
Victor Rofino33%
Jair da Silva33%
Dieu-Merci Michel29%
Marcelo25%
Albert Lottin20%
José Pedro20%
Miguel Pires18%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes17%
Genaro14%
Pablo Fernández14%
Jordan van der Gaag10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Juan Muñoz0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan van der Gaag20%
Pablo Fernández20%
Marc Baró18%
Juan Muñoz17%
Dieu-Merci Michel14%
Daniel Borges12%
Lucho Vega10%
Maga9%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Genaro0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
José Pedro0%
Victor Rofino0%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Jair da Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Muñoz58%
Jair da Silva50%
Dieu-Merci Michel43%
Daniel Borges12%
Jordan van der Gaag10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Maga0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Genaro0%
Marc Baró0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
José Pedro0%
Victor Rofino0%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Santa Clara
Nacional
Maritimo
AVS
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Mafra
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Leixoes
Feirense
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa