This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.1%
0-1
12.6%
1-1 ✓
10.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-3
8.5%
0-0
8.0%
1-3
6.1%
0-4
4.1%
Union Berlin goals ↓
RB Leipzig goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
13%
13%
8.5%
4.1%
1
4.1%
11%
9.5%
6.1%
3.0%
2
1.8%
3.5%
3.4%
2.2%
1.1%
3
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Union Berlin goals (down), columns = RB Leipzig goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SC Freiburg
2.12
RB Leipzig
1.97
1. FC Nürnberg
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.56
VfL Bochum
1.50
Union Berlin
1.44
Karlsruher SC
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.35
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.35
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.26
Arminia Bielefeld
1.24
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.03
Munich 1860
1.00
Eintracht Frankfurt
0.94
Duisburg
0.94
SC Paderborn 07
0.82
Union Berlin is 0.53 points worse than RB Leipzig in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SC Freiburg
2.21
1. FC Nürnberg
2.00
Union Berlin
1.65
VfL Bochum
1.65
RB Leipzig
1.59
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.44
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.24
SV Sandhausen
1.18
Arminia Bielefeld
1.12
Karlsruher SC
1.03
Eintracht Frankfurt
0.97
Munich 1860
0.94
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0.94
Duisburg
0.94
SC Paderborn 07
0.82
Union Berlin is 0.06 goals better than RB Leipzig in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
RB Leipzig
0.94
Karlsruher SC
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.12
FC St. Pauli
1.15
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
SC Freiburg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.18
1. FC Heidenheim
1.18
1. FC Nürnberg
1.21
Munich 1860
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Union Berlin
1.47
SV Sandhausen
1.47
Duisburg
1.59
SC Paderborn 07
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.62
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.74
Union Berlin is 0.53 goals worse than RB Leipzig in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Union Berlin
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
RB Leipzig
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Union Berlin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Eintracht Frankfurt
10.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Eintracht Frankfurt
35.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Union Berlin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Union Berlin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
25% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RB Leipzig
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
100% (+75pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Union Berlin · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Skov25%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Rani Khedira17%
Woo-Yeong Jeong16%
Andrej Ilić15%
Oliver Burke13%
Ilyas Ansah11%
Danilho Doekhi11%
Josip Juranović9%
Tom Rothe8%
Stanley N'Soki7%
András Schäfer6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Derrick Köhn3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Livan Burcu26%
Christopher Trimmel26%
Janik Haberer26%
Rani Khedira20%
Andrej Ilić18%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Derrick Köhn17%
Diogo Leite16%
Aljoscha Kemlein16%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke13%
András Schäfer10%
Josip Juranović9%
Frederik Rønnow6%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Alex Král5%
Tom Rothe4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Robert Skov0%
Tim Skarke0%
Carl Klaus0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dmytro Bogdanov33%
Andrej Ilić24%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Christopher Trimmel13%
Josip Juranović9%
Derrick Köhn7%
Oliver Burke6%
Janik Haberer6%
Aljoscha Kemlein6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong3%
András Schäfer3%
Rani Khedira3%
Ilyas Ansah3%
Danilho Doekhi3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Carl Klaus0%
Leopold Querfeld0%
Tom Rothe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić29%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke10%
Leopold Querfeld9%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tom Rothe4%
Derrick Köhn3%
András Schäfer3%
Stanley N'Soki0%
Diogo Leite0%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Josip Juranović0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Tim Skarke0%
Rani Khedira0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
RB Leipzig · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yan Diomande31%
Christoph Baumgartner30%
Rômulo28%
Assan Ouédraogo20%
Antonio Nusa14%
Brajan Gruda14%
Johan Bakayoko14%
Xaver Schlager10%
Conrad Harder9%
David Raum9%
Willi Orbán8%
Ezechiel Banzuzi7%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Benjamin Henrichs6%
Ridle Baku6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Castello Lukeba3%
Loïs Openda0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Nicolas Seiwald0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christoph Baumgartner30%
David Raum21%
Xaver Schlager20%
Ezechiel Banzuzi18%
Ridle Baku14%
Max Finkgräfe14%
Rômulo12%
Willi Orbán11%
Castello Lukeba10%
Conrad Harder9%
Nicolas Seiwald8%
Brajan Gruda7%
Maarten Vandevoordt6%
Yan Diomande6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Johan Bakayoko5%
Péter Gulácsi4%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Antonio Nusa0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Assan Ouédraogo0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Raum24%
Brajan Gruda21%
Yan Diomande19%
Christoph Baumgartner19%
Assan Ouédraogo15%
Lukas Klostermann14%
Rômulo12%
Conrad Harder12%
Ridle Baku11%
Antonio Nusa11%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Willi Orbán5%
Nicolas Seiwald5%
Ezechiel Banzuzi4%
Castello Lukeba3%
Xaver Schlager3%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Johan Bakayoko0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoph Baumgartner38%
Loïs Openda33%
Yan Diomande22%
Rômulo22%
Antonio Nusa20%
Conrad Harder16%
Brajan Gruda14%
Assan Ouédraogo10%
Johan Bakayoko9%
David Raum3%
Ridle Baku3%
Nicolas Seiwald3%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Xaver Schlager0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Willi Orbán0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Castello Lukeba0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Ezechiel Banzuzi0%
Max Finkgräfe0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (31)
€506m
EF (26)
€323m
SF (30)
€243m
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
1FH (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
DUI (26)
€9m
M1 (13)
€2m
Union Berlin's squad is €383m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€123m vs €506m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (12)
€212m
EF (11)
€174m
SF (10)
€96m
UB (10)
€46m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
FD (8)
€3m
M1 (3)
€0m
Union Berlin's attack is €166m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€46m vs €212m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (6)
€109m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
UB (6)
€26m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
1FH (4)
€7m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
KS (6)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
DUI (4)
€2m
M1 (4)
€1m
Union Berlin's midfield is €83m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€26m vs €109m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (13)
€185m
SF (15)
€110m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
DUI (10)
€3m
M1 (6)
€1m
Union Berlin's defence is €134m less valuable than RB Leipzig's (€50m vs €185m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →