PythiaFootballBETA
This match between Union Titus Petange and Swift Hesperange is finely balanced, with the home side struggling after two straight defeats, while the away team is coming off three consecutive losses. However, the recent form of both teams suggests a turning point may be near, as Union Titus Petange has shown resilience in their last five games.
The model predicts an away win with a 37% chance, a draw with 30%, and a home win with 33%. The expected total goals is 2.4. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance.
Union Titus Petange has scored an average of 0.86 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.86. Swift Hesperange has scored 0.83 goals away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.5.
The model's selections include Over 3.5 cards with a 90.9% chance, Over 21.5 fouls with 88.4%, Under 3.5 with 78%, Under 9.5 corners with 71.4%, and Over 1.5 with 70.3%. The home side has a 33% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing.
The win extends Union Titus Petange's run of mixed results. However, it was the away team, Swift Hesperange, who ultimately secured a 2-3 victory, marking an away win in the actual result. The model's selection, an away win, was correct. The pre-match favourite was indeed Swift Hesperange, with a 37% probability of winning. The model's call was correct, as Swift Hesperange came out on top. The model also suggested an Over 1.5 goals, which hit, with a probability of 70.3%, and Under 3.5 goals, which missed, with a 78% probability. The actual total goals exceeded the model's expected 2.4, and the most likely score of 2 goals was far off the final score of 2-3.
Union Titus Petange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.63 | 0.87 | 1.67 | 0.73 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.79 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 1.86 | 0.71 | 2.14 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.92 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
Swift Hesperange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.53 | 1.07 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.92 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.29 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Swift Hesperange goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 14% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Union Titus PetangeSwift HesperangeUnion Titus Petange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 26.0 | 20.0 | 29.0 |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 4.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 26.0 | 20.0 | 29.0 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 12% | 4% | 67% | 0% | 100% |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 88% | 96% | 33% | 100% | 0% |
Swift Hesperange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 29.6 | 27.2 | 39.0 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 6.3 | 6.3 | - | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 29.3 | 29.3 | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 39.0 | - | 39.0 |
| % over line | 20% | 25% | 0% | 10% | 15% | 4% | 80% | 75% | 100% |
| % under line | 80% | 75% | 100% | 90% | 85% | 96% | 20% | 25% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 cards | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 88.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 78.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 9.5 corners | 71.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 04/08/24 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/02/24 | A | 3-3 | |
| 13/08/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/03/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/09/22 | A | 3-3 |
Union Titus Petange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
Swift Hesperange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Atert Bissen | 30 | 65 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 27 | +43 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 37% | 8.6 | 40% | 6.6 | 100% | 26.0 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 65 | 63% | 2.2 | 63 | 22 | +41 | 2.8 | 70% | 50% | 40% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 28.5 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 54% |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 60 | 63% | 2.0 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 6.2 | 80% | 25.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 4 |  UNA Strassen | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 57 | 26 | +31 | 2.8 | 70% | 53% | 37% | 7.8 | 0% | 5.6 | 60% | 28.2 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 57% |
| 5 |  F91 Dudelange | 30 | 58 | 57% | 1.9 | 59 | 38 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 8.0 | 0% | 7.4 | 80% | 24.7 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 6 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 40 | 33% | 1.3 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 2.3 | 70% | 33% | 20% | 8.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 7 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 3.3 | 77% | 57% | 43% | 7.5 | 0% | 8.8 | 100% | 26.5 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 8 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 3.0 | 83% | 57% | 33% | 9.2 | 50% | 6.6 | 80% | 27.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 41% |
| 9 |  US Hostert | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 3.0 | 73% | 57% | 40% | 8.4 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 29.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 10 |  Victoria Rosport | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 2.8 | 73% | 60% | 27% | 9.8 | 25% | 6.2 | 60% | 25.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 11 |  Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 77% | 53% | 33% | 7.5 | 25% | 5.0 | 80% | 22.2 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 60% |
| 12 | Swift Hesperange | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 2.6 | 70% | 50% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 6.6 | 100% | 29.6 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 13 |  Jeunesse Canach | 31 | 32 | 29% | 1.0 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 2.4 | 58% | 48% | 29% | 8.2 | 40% | 5.6 | 80% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 14 |  Mamer | 31 | 30 | 26% | 1.0 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 3.0 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 10.3 | 67% | 6.8 | 75% | 30.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 15 | Union Titus Petange | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 26 | 49 | -23 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 17% | 5.2 | 0% | 6.2 | 80% | 26.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 16 |  Rodange 91 | 30 | 25 | 20% | 0.8 | 28 | 65 | -37 | 3.1 | 80% | 63% | 40% | 9.3 | 33% | 7.8 | 100% | 28.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 17 |  Résidence Walferdange | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 |  Wiltz | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |