Universitatea Craiova, the clear favourite, boasts a 65% chance of winning at home, thanks to their impressive 2.62 goals scored and 0.38 conceded at their own venue, where they face a weaker opponent. Petrolul Ploiesti, on the other hand, struggles away from home, conceding 1.75 goals and scoring only 1.0 against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 24% chance of a draw and a 10% chance of an away win for Petrolul Ploiesti. The most likely match result is a home win, with a predicted total of 2.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 16.3% of the time.
Universitatea Craiova's home form is strong, and they are likely to continue scoring at their venue. Petrolul Ploiesti's away form is poor, and they may struggle to contain their opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a suggested pick of Under 3.5 (79.6%) and a miss on Over 3.5 cards (74.3%). The home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 10%.
The win extends their run, but it was a tough day for the model's selections. Universitatea Craiova dominated Petrolul Ploiesti, securing a 4-0 victory. The home team's strong recent form at home, where they have a weaker opponent strength, was evident. The model's call of a home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 65%. However, the model's selection of a home win was the only correct call among its suggestions. The Under 3.5 total goals was missed, with a probability of 79.6%, while the Over 3.5 cards was also missed, with a probability of 74.3%.
Universitatea Craiova| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 0.90 | 2.29 | 0.57 | 1.06 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.26 | 1.11 | 2.25 | 0.75 | 0.55 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 2.27 | 0.55 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Petrolul Ploiesti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.27 | 0.93 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Petrolul Ploiesti goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16% | 11% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 15% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Universitatea Craiova
Petrolul Ploiesti
Universitatea Craiova| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 24.4 | 23.8 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | 24.0 | 24.0 | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 8.2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 25.8 | 25.8 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 22.6 | 21.2 | 24.0 |
| % over line | 40% | 43% | 38% | 56% | 67% | 46% | 69% | 67% | 71% |
| % under line | 60% | 57% | 62% | 44% | 33% | 54% | 31% | 33% | 29% |
Petrolul Ploiesti| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 25.5 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 8.4 | 5.5 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 27.3 | 31.0 | 24.4 |
| vs Similar (40) | 9.9 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 25.1 | 25.0 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 54% | 52% | 57% | 64% | 71% | 58% | 76% | 78% | 74% |
| % under line | 46% | 48% | 43% | 36% | 29% | 42% | 24% | 22% | 26% |
Universitatea Craiova| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.82 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Petrolul Ploiesti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.23 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.13 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.00 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.29 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Universitatea Craiova| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.47 | 1.71 | 0.21 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.68 | 1.62 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.45 | 0.09 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Petrolul Ploiesti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.71 | 0.54 | 0.69 | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 82.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 79.6% | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.23 | +3.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.3% | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.27 | +4.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 04/12/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 24/08/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 07/12/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/12/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/08/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 29/02/24 | A | 2-3 | |
| 22/10/23 | H | 1-3 |
Universitatea Craiova| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 22/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
Petrolul Ploiesti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 8.3 | 17% | 5.3 | 50% | 22.7 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 54% |
| 2 | FCSB | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 11.3 | 67% | 4.7 | 83% | 25.8 | 100% | 34 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 3 | Rapid | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 17% | 12.0 | 67% | 5.7 | 50% | 22.7 | 50% | 25 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 51% |
| 4 | Universitatea Craiova | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 3.5 | 83% | 67% | 67% | 8.0 | 17% | 5.0 | 83% | 20.8 | 33% | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 60% |
| 5 | Arges Pitesti | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 60% | 5.8 | 60% | 25.0 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 43% |
| 6 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 8.2 | 33% | 4.6 | 60% | 25.0 | 67% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 46% |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 33% | 8.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 83% | 21.5 | 33% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 8 | Universitatea Cluj | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 80% | 80% | 0% | 8.6 | 20% | 5.6 | 80% | 24.2 | 60% | 19 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 9 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.0 | 50% | 33% | 17% | 8.2 | 17% | 6.3 | 67% | 25.5 | 83% | 12 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 10 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 10.7 | 50% | 4.3 | 67% | 23.0 | 50% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50% |
| 11 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 10.4 | 60% | 2.2 | 20% | 20.2 | 40% | 40 | 18 | 5 | 17 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 55% |
| 12 | Oţelul | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 8.4 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 26.4 | 80% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 13 | FC Voluntari | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 3.5 | 83% | 83% | 67% | 7.0 | 17% | 4.2 | 60% | 21.0 | 50% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 40% |
| 14 | FC Botosani | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 40% | 7.5 | 100% | 24.4 | 80% | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 15 | Uta Arad | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 33% | 8.7 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | 28.7 | 83% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.0 | 20% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 45% |