The contest between US Hostert and AS Jeunesse Esch is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 32%, a draw at 26%, and the visitors at 41%. The average goal count is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23% chance. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability.
US Hostert, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. AS Jeunesse Esch, on the road, has 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition. Recent form shows Hostert struggling after a 0-2 loss to FC Differdange 03, while Jeunesse Esch comes off a 5-2 win over US Rumelange.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Over 2.5 cards (95.5%), Over 19.5 fouls (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Under 5.5 (91.5%) and Over 21.5 fouls (88.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
US Hostert win
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch win
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
US Hostert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.87
1.42
1.58
1.50
2.06
vs Stronger (17)
1.12
1.88
1.00
1.62
1.22
2.11
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.92
1.33
1.67
1.78
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.00
1.36
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.40
0.60
1.20
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.32
1.22
1.44
1.30
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
2.00
-
-
5.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
US Hostert goals ↓
AS Jeunesse Esch goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.8%
6.4%
3.4%
1.4%
1
5.8%
12%
8.9%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.8%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.3%
3.7%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = US Hostert goals (down), columns = AS Jeunesse Esch goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
US Hostert is 0.60 points better than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
US Hostert is 0.80 goals better than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
US Hostert and AS Jeunesse Esch are level in goals conceded per game (both 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
US Hostert
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AS Jeunesse Esch
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
US Hostert
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.7
8.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
29.0
28.0
32.0
vs Stronger (27)
8.0
8.0
8.0
0.7
0.4
1.1
33.0
34.0
32.0
vs Similar (21)
9.0
9.0
-
0.6
1.5
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
8%
8%
8%
75%
67%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
92%
92%
92%
25%
33%
0%
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
10.0
7.5
0.6
0.9
0.3
29.0
29.0
29.0
vs Stronger (14)
6.0
-
6.0
0.3
0.0
0.7
32.0
-
32.0
vs Similar (35)
9.7
10.0
9.0
0.8
1.4
0.3
28.0
29.0
26.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
10%
12%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
90%
88%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (US Hostert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.9%
Under 9.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.4%
Under 3.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
88.6%
Under 21.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
US Hostert or Draw
58.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
41%
covers US Hostert + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Hostert or AS Jeunesse Esch
73.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
41%
covers US Hostert + AS Jeunesse Esch
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
67.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
41%
covers Draw + AS Jeunesse Esch
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
US Hostert over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to US Hostert, so a minus line means US Hostert give that many goals of a start and AS Jeunesse Esch receive them. At -1, US Hostert must win by two or more to land; a one-goal US Hostert win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (US Hostert)
US Hostert -2
5.5%
Draw -2
9.7%
AS Jeunesse Esch +2
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (US Hostert)
US Hostert -1
15.2%
Draw -1
17.2%
AS Jeunesse Esch +1
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (US Hostert)
US Hostert +1
58.8%
Draw +1
19.8%
AS Jeunesse Esch -1
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (US Hostert)
US Hostert +2
78.6%
Draw +2
12.7%
AS Jeunesse Esch -2
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
US Hostert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.42
0.92
0.56
0.89
vs Stronger (17)
0.18
0.94
0.25
1.00
0.11
0.89
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.92
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.36
0.64
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.53
0.44
0.67
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
US Hostert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.97
1.00
0.67
0.94
1.17
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
0.94
0.75
0.62
1.11
1.22
vs Similar (12)
0.92
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Jeunesse Esch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.64
0.71
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.78
0.78
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Jeunesse Esch over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
US Hostert and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
US Hostert and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
US Hostert and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
US Hostert and AS Jeunesse Esch have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
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UNA Strassen
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
F91 Dudelange
US Rumelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange