In this National Division match, Etzella Ettelbruck's recent struggles on the road against stronger opponents (1.07 goals scored, 2.67 conceded) may hinder their chances against US Hostert. However, the home side has also experienced some setbacks, including two consecutive defeats, and their recent form is a mixed bag.
The model predicts a home win, with a 50% probability of US Hostert emerging victorious, 25% for a draw, and 24% for Etzella Ettelbruck. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 11.8%.
US Hostert has a strong home scoring record, but their home defence has been vulnerable. Etzella Ettelbruck's away form is concerning, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per match. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, occurring with a probability of 81.4%. The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 24%.
The win extends their run, as US Hostert secured a resounding 5-1 victory over Etzella Ettelbruck, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The model's call was well-placed, given the favourites' strong recent form, with US Hostert coming off a win and Etzella Ettelbruck after 2 straight defeats. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 81.4%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 23%. The most likely scores included 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0, each with a corresponding probability.
US Hostert| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.90 | 1.08 | 1.67 | 1.61 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 1.06 | 1.94 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 2.38 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 2.00 | 1.78 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Etzella Ettelbruck| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 2.40 | 0.93 | 2.07 | 1.40 | 2.73 |
| vs Stronger (29) | 1.10 | 2.41 | 0.93 | 2.07 | 1.29 | 2.79 |
| vs Similar (1) | 3.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
| Etzella Ettelbruck goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 12% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
US Hostert
Etzella Ettelbruck
US Hostert| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 29.0 | 28.0 | 32.0 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 33.0 | 34.0 | 32.0 |
| vs Similar (23) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 75% | 67% | 100% |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 25% | 33% | 0% |
Etzella Ettelbruck| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (35) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (34) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
US Hostert| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.90 | 0.17 | 0.92 | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.19 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Etzella Ettelbruck| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 1.03 | 0.27 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (29) | 0.28 | 1.03 | 0.27 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 1.07 |
| vs Similar (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
US Hostert| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.88 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Etzella Ettelbruck| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.37 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (29) | 0.83 | 1.38 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| vs Similar (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 95.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 89.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 88.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 4.5 cards | 78.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 77.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/11/22 | H | 0-3 |
US Hostert| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 |
Etzella Ettelbruck| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/09/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/10/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/05/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 14/05/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/05/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 30/04/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/04/23 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |