The model sees F91 Dudelange as the clear favourite, giving them a 65% chance of victory versus US Hostert’s 15% home-win probability and a 19% draw chance. The prediction leans on Dudelange’s stronger away form, scoring 1.6 goals and conceding only 1.2 against weaker opponents, while Hostert struggles at home, averaging 1.25 scored and 2.38 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total is 3.6 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Dudelange, with a 9.5% probability. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards (96.2%), Over 19.5 fouls (93.9%), Over 3.5 cards (89.9%), Over 1.5 (88.1% hit), Over 21.5 fouls (87.0%), Under 11.5 corners (83.0%), Over 4.5 cards (79.5%), and Over 23.5 fouls (76.3%). The recent form notes that Hostert is coming off a defeat and Dudelange is on a two-game winning run, reinforcing the model’s preference for an away win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, F91 Dudelange, fell short of the expected triumph, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the away side a 65% chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. US Hostert, coming off a defeat and with a recent run of LWWLL, managed to hold the visitors to a single goal, while Dudelange, on a two-game winning streak, could not convert their 1.6 average goals per match into a win. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, reflecting the 88.1% probability that at least two goals would be scored.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
US Hostert win✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange win✗ Miss
65.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
US Hostert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.97
1.33
2.20
1.93
1.73
vs Stronger (16)
1.31
2.31
1.25
2.38
1.38
2.25
vs Similar (13)
1.85
1.69
1.43
2.00
2.33
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.37
2.47
1.40
2.07
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
2.10
1.50
2.09
1.55
2.11
1.44
vs Weaker (9)
2.44
1.11
3.50
1.00
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.5%
Under 2.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 3.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.0%
No
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%
1-1 ✓
8.5%
0-2
8.3%
1-3
7.7%
0-3
6.7%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.4%
1-4
4.7%
US Hostert goals ↓
F91 Dudelange goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
6.0%
8.3%
6.7%
4.1%
1
2.4%
8.5%
9.5%
7.7%
4.7%
2
1.8%
4.4%
5.4%
4.4%
2.7%
3
0.7%
1.7%
2.1%
1.7%
1.0%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = US Hostert goals (down), columns = F91 Dudelange goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atert Bissen
2.17
FC Differdange 03
2.17
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.93
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.27
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.07
Jeunesse Canach
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Wiltz
1.00
Mamer
0.97
Rodange 91
0.83
Union Titus Petange
0.83
US Hostert is 0.73 points worse than F91 Dudelange in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atert Bissen
2.33
FC Differdange 03
2.10
F91 Dudelange
1.97
UNA Strassen
1.90
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.70
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.47
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
US Hostert
1.17
Victoria Rosport
1.10
Mamer
1.06
Swift Hesperange
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Jeunesse Canach
0.97
Rodange 91
0.93
Union Titus Petange
0.87
Wiltz
0.00
US Hostert is 0.80 goals worse than F91 Dudelange in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wiltz
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.80
UNA Strassen
0.87
Atert Bissen
0.90
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.13
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Jeunesse Canach
1.45
Swift Hesperange
1.53
Progres Niederkorn
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.60
Union Titus Petange
1.63
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
Victoria Rosport
1.67
US Hostert
1.87
Mamer
1.90
Rodange 91
2.17
US Hostert is 0.60 goals worse than F91 Dudelange in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
F91 Dudelange
61%
Progres Niederkorn
60%
UNA Strassen
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
56%
FC Differdange 03
54%
US Hostert
53%
Rodange 91
52%
US Mondorf-les-bains
52%
Atert Bissen
51%
Jeunesse Canach
49%
Swift Hesperange
48%
AS Jeunesse Esch
46%
Mamer
45%
Union Titus Petange
45%
UN Kaerjeng 97
41%
Victoria Rosport
40%
US Hostert is 8.1 percentage points worse than F91 Dudelange in terms of average possession (53% vs 61%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
US Hostert
For 5.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 13.8 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
F91 Dudelange
For 4.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
US Hostert
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.7
8.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
29.0
28.0
32.0
vs Stronger (25)
8.0
8.0
8.0
0.8
0.5
1.0
33.0
34.0
32.0
vs Similar (23)
9.0
9.0
-
0.5
1.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
8%
8%
8%
75%
67%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
92%
92%
92%
25%
33%
0%
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
9.0
7.5
0.7
1.0
0.5
24.7
25.0
24.5
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.0
9.0
-
0.9
1.7
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (18)
7.5
-
7.5
0.7
0.0
1.2
24.5
-
24.5
% over line
0%
0%
0%
8%
12%
4%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
92%
88%
96%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Mamer
10.3
Victoria Rosport
9.8
Rodange 91
9.3
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Jeunesse Canach
8.2
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
Union Titus Petange
5.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rodange 91
7.8
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Mamer
6.8
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
Union Titus Petange
6.2
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
Jeunesse Canach
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Jeunesse Canach
30.6
Swift Hesperange
30.4
Mamer
30.3
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
Rodange 91
28.0
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
Union Titus Petange
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
37.5%
Under 9.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
89.9%
Under 3.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
US Hostert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.47
0.87
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.62
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.77
0.14
1.00
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.80
0.67
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.65
0.82
0.73
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
US Hostert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.23
0.87
1.33
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
1.56
0.50
1.62
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.29
1.00
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.73
1.67
0.73
1.53
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.85
1.27
0.82
1.44
0.89
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
0.44
2.75
0.50
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
US Hostert and F91 Dudelange have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
US Hostert and F91 Dudelange have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
US Hostert and F91 Dudelange have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
US Hostert and F91 Dudelange have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
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Atert Bissen
FC Differdange 03
US Mondorf-les-bains
UNA Strassen
AS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
Victoria Rosport
Progres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Canach
Mamer
Union Titus Petange
Rodange 91
Résidence Walferdange
Wiltz