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US Mondorf-les-bains vs FC Differdange 03 Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 3-2
US Mondorf-les-bains
US Mondorf-les-bains
Vs
31%
29%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
Luxembourg: National Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

US Mondorf-les-bains, fresh from a 2-game winning run, host FC Differdange 03 on August 2nd in the Luxembourg National Division. The visitors are coming off a win, having defeated US Rumelange 2-0. The model's suggested selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.3% probability and an 8% edge, as well as Over 1.5 with a 72.9% probability. However, the model most disagrees with the market on the selection Under 3.5, where it holds an 8% edge.

The most likely match result is an Away win, with a 40% probability, while the draw has a 29% chance and the home win a 31% chance. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 14% probability. US Mondorf-les-bains has scored 1 goal on average at home against similar opponents and conceded 0.8 goals, while FC Differdange 03 has scored 1.33 goals on average away against similar opponents and conceded 0.67.

The model's selections hold the following probabilities: Under 3.5 (75.3%), Over 1.5 (72.9%), Home win (31%), Draw (29%), and Away win (40%).

Results analysis

US Mondorf-les-bains' 3-2 victory over FC Differdange 03 extends their run of two consecutive wins. The win marks a surprise upset, as the pre-match favourite, FC Differdange 03, had a 40% chance of winning. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect. The model had also suggested the Over 1.5 goals outcome, which hit, with a 72.9% probability. The Under 3.5 goals outcome, with a 75.3% probability, was the model's other selection, which missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

US Mondorf-les-bains win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.81
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.98
Dafabet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.70
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.42
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
FC Differdange 03 win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied 49.8% · @ 1.82
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

US Mondorf-les-bainsUS Mondorf-les-bains

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W31W21W11D11D40W10W01L10W00DA·ROD14/03H·JEU22/03A·FC 04/04H·AS 12/04A·F9119/04H·US 26/04H·SWI03/05A·VIC10/05H·UNI17/05A·UNA23/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.802.070.801.330.80
vs Stronger (4)1.751.251.502.002.000.50
vs Similar (12)1.250.671.170.831.330.50
vs Weaker (14)2.070.793.000.431.141.14
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Differdange 03FC Differdange 03

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D12L51W30W10W00D32W20W01LH·AS 15/03A·F9122/03H·US 04/04A·SWI12/04H·VIC19/04A·UNI26/04H·UNA03/05A·PRO08/05H·UN 17/05A·ATE23/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.070.772.130.872.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.881.250.751.001.001.50
vs Weaker (22)2.500.592.640.822.360.36
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.9%
@ 1.21-2.2%
Under 1.5
27.1%
@ 3.67+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.75-6.4%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.94+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Under
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.7%
@ 2.83-7.5%
Under 3.5
75.3%
@ 1.34+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Superbet
2.72
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.3%
@ 1.66-3.0%
No
47.7%
@ 2.05+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
No
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
10Bet
2.00

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 6.21+8.2%
0-1
9.7%@ 6.85+4.4%
0-0
9.3%@ 9.85+5.7%
1-2
8.6%@ 7.28+3.7%
1-0
8.1%@ 10.47+4.7%
0-2
7.4%@ 8.18+3.1%
2-1
7.4%@ 10.50+4.0%
2-0
5.4%@ 17.00+3.3%
US Mondorf-les-bains goals ↓
FC Differdange 03 goals →
01234
09.3%9.7%7.4%3.4%1.1%
18.1%14%8.6%3.9%1.3%
25.4%7.4%5.0%2.3%0.8%
32.1%2.9%1.9%0.9%0.3%
40.6%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = US Mondorf-les-bains goals (down), columns = FC Differdange 03 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.17
Atert Bissen
2.17
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.93
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.27
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.07
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Wiltz
1.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.94
US Rumelange
0.61
US Mondorf-les-bains is 0.17 points worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Atert Bissen
2.33
FC Differdange 03
2.10
F91 Dudelange
1.97
UNA Strassen
1.90
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.70
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.47
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.43
US Hostert
1.17
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
Victoria Rosport
1.10
Swift Hesperange
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.92
US Rumelange
0.59
Wiltz
0.00
US Mondorf-les-bains is 0.40 goals worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 2.10).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Wiltz
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.80
UNA Strassen
0.87
Atert Bissen
0.90
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.13
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Swift Hesperange
1.53
Progres Niederkorn
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.60
Victoria Rosport
1.67
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
US Hostert
1.87
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.89
US Rumelange
2.94
US Mondorf-les-bains is 0.07 goals worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 0.73).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
F91 Dudelange
61%
Progres Niederkorn
60%
UNA Strassen
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
56%
FC Differdange 03
54%
US Hostert
53%
US Mondorf-les-bains
52%
Atert Bissen
51%
Swift Hesperange
48%
AS Jeunesse Esch
46%
UN Kaerjeng 97
41%
Victoria Rosport
40%
US Mondorf-les-bains is 2.3 percentage points worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of average possession (52% vs 54%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

US Mondorf-les-bainsUS Mondorf-les-bains

For 7.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.0

🚩 Corners

1201026465121011A·ATEH·UN A·PRO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 6.2

🟨 Cards

1102356164211511762H·MAMA·ATEH·UN A·PROH·UNA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.3 · Total 25.3

⚠️ Fouls

28091713151111262822A·ATEH·UN A·PRO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC Differdange 03FC Differdange 03

For 4.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 6.0

🚩 Corners

60426H·JEU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 6.0

🟨 Cards

60426H·JEU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 31.0

⚠️ Fouls

310171431H·JEU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

US Mondorf-les-bainsUS Mondorf-les-bains

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.010.011.50.60.60.725.328.024.0
vs Stronger (5)12.0-12.02.20.03.726.0-26.0
vs Similar (21)11.0-11.00.40.20.522.0-22.0
vs Weaker (24)10.010.0-0.50.90.028.028.0-
% over line100%100%100%8%8%8%100%100%100%
% under line0%0%0%92%92%92%0%0%0%
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Differdange 03FC Differdange 03

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)6.06.0-0.20.40.028.528.5-
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (16)6.06.0-0.30.70.026.026.0-
vs Weaker (32)6.06.0-0.20.40.031.031.0-
% over line0%0%-4%8%0%100%100%-
% under line100%100%-96%92%100%0%0%-
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.2%
Under 9.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
87.9%
Under 3.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.7%
Under 21.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 3.5 cards87.9%--------
Over 21.5 fouls87.7%--------
Under 3.575.3%1.34
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-+7.5%✗ Miss
Over 1.572.9%1.21
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
--2.2%✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
FD0 (16)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

US Mondorf-les-bains vs FC Differdange 03 · H/A from UM
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26AFC Differdange 03 Vs UM1-2
05/10/25HUM Vs FC Differdange 031-3
23/02/25AFC Differdange 03 Vs UM3-0
25/08/24HUM Vs FC Differdange 030-4
03/03/24HUM Vs FC Differdange 030-2
03/09/23AFC Differdange 03 Vs UM1-1
19/03/23AFC Differdange 03 Vs UM2-1
18/09/22HUM Vs FC Differdange 030-1

US Mondorf-les-bainsUS Mondorf-les-bains

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AUNA Strassen Vs UM0-0
17/05/26HUM Vs Union Titus Petange1-0
10/05/26AVictoria Rosport Vs UM1-0
03/05/26HUM Vs Swift Hesperange1-0
26/04/26HUM Vs US Hostert4-0
19/04/26AF91 Dudelange Vs UM1-1
12/04/26HUM Vs AS Jeunesse Esch1-1
04/04/26AFC Differdange 03 Vs UM1-2
22/03/26HUM Vs Jeunesse Canach3-1
14/03/26ARodange 91 Vs UM1-3

FC Differdange 03FC Differdange 03

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AAtert Bissen Vs FD01-0
17/05/26HFD0 Vs UN Kaerjeng 972-0
08/05/26AProgres Niederkorn Vs FD02-3
03/05/26HFD0 Vs UNA Strassen0-0
26/04/26AUnion Titus Petange Vs FD00-1
19/04/26HFD0 Vs Victoria Rosport3-0
12/04/26ASwift Hesperange Vs FD01-5
04/04/26HFD0 Vs US Mondorf-les-bains1-2
22/03/26AF91 Dudelange Vs FD00-0
15/03/26HFD0 Vs AS Jeunesse Esch1-1

📊 9. Overall Statistics

US Mondorf-les-bains
US Mondorf-les-bains
Luxembourg: National Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.96
HomeWDWWW2.12
AwayWWDLD1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%68%56%
AVG goals2.662.882.44
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %30%48%12%
Scored1.722.001.44
Conceded0.940.881.00
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners11.0010.0011.50
Cards6.204.678.50
FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
Luxembourg: National Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL2.06
HomeDLWDW1.96
AwayDWWWL2.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%56%68%
AVG goals2.642.802.48
Over 1.5 %68%72%64%
Over 2.5 %44%52%36%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored1.942.001.88
Conceded0.700.800.60
BTTS38%44%32%
Clean Sheet54%52%56%
Corners6.006.00-
Cards5.505.50-

🏆 10. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1UNA StrassenUNA Strassen26
100%
3.0
60+6
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.00.0
57%
2Racing FC Union LuxembourgRacing FC Union Luxembourg26
100%
3.0
61+5
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1013.00.5
56%
3Atert BissenAtert Bissen26
100%
3.0
40+4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.0
51%
4US Mondorf-les-bainsUS Mondorf-les-bains26
100%
3.0
64+2
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.02.0
52%
5FC Differdange 03FC Differdange 0336
67%
2.0
64+2
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.3
54%
6Progres NiederkornProgres Niederkorn26
100%
3.0
31+2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
60%
7WiltzWiltz34
33%
1.3
95+4
4.7
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.01.7
-
8Résidence WalferdangeRésidence Walferdange23
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9US RumelangeUS Rumelange23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
10UN Kaerjeng 97UN Kaerjeng 9723
50%
1.5
57-2
6.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.53.5
41%
11Etzella EttelbruckEtzella Ettelbruck21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
12US HostertUS Hostert20
0%
0.0
47-3
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.5
53%
13AS Jeunesse EschAS Jeunesse Esch20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
46%
14F91 DudelangeF91 Dudelange20
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.02.0
61%
15Victoria RosportVictoria Rosport20
0%
0.0
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
40%
16Swift HesperangeSwift Hesperange20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
48%
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →

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