US Mondorf-les-bains are poised to win, with a 57% chance of triumph, a 22% draw probability, and a 20% chance for Wiltz. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, averaging 3.4 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Mondorf-les-bains have been prolific at home, scoring an average of four goals and conceding none against weaker opposition, while Wiltz, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.62 goals scored and 2.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Over 2.5 cards (95.3%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Over 19.5 fouls (94.1%), Home +2 handicap (91.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.2%), and Over 3.5 cards (87.9%). Mondorf-les-bains are on a five-game winning streak, last beating Progres Niederkorn 2-1, whereas Wiltz have endured three straight defeats, most recently losing 1-2 to F91 Dudelange.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
US Mondorf-les-bains win
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wiltz win
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
US Mondorf-les-bains
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.93
2.13
0.87
1.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.81
0.96
2.00
0.93
1.58
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.75
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wiltz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.93
1.75
1.50
1.64
2.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
2.44
0.75
2.12
1.62
2.75
vs Similar (13)
2.38
1.38
3.00
0.86
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
6.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.6%
US Mondorf-les-bains goals ↓
Wiltz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
1
6.5%
10.0%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.9%
9.7%
6.0%
2.4%
0.8%
3
5.6%
6.9%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.0%
3.7%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = US Mondorf-les-bains goals (down), columns = Wiltz goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
US Mondorf-les-bains is 2.20 points better than Wiltz in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
US Mondorf-les-bains is 0.40 goals better than Wiltz in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
US Mondorf-les-bains is 1.00 goals better than Wiltz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
US Mondorf-les-bains
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Wiltz
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.0
11.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
25.3
28.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
11.5
-
11.5
0.6
0.3
0.8
24.0
-
24.0
vs Weaker (9)
10.0
10.0
-
0.8
3.5
0.0
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
8%
9%
7%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
92%
91%
93%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wiltz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.1%
Under 9.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
87.9%
Under 3.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.4%
Under 21.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
US Mondorf-les-bains or Draw
79.6%
Avg Implied -
57%
22%
20%
covers US Mondorf-les-bains + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains or Wiltz
77.7%
Avg Implied -
57%
22%
20%
covers US Mondorf-les-bains + Wiltz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Wiltz
42.7%
Avg Implied -
57%
22%
20%
covers Draw + Wiltz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 3.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 0.5
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to US Mondorf-les-bains, so a minus line means US Mondorf-les-bains give that many goals of a start and Wiltz receive them. At -1, US Mondorf-les-bains must win by two or more to land; a one-goal US Mondorf-les-bains win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (US Mondorf-les-bains)
US Mondorf-les-bains -2
18.3%
Draw -2
17.5%
Wiltz +2
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (US Mondorf-les-bains)
US Mondorf-les-bains -1
35.9%
Draw -1
21.5%
Wiltz +1
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (US Mondorf-les-bains)
US Mondorf-les-bains +1
79.6%
Draw +1
11.9%
Wiltz -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (US Mondorf-les-bains)
US Mondorf-les-bains +2
91.6%
Draw +2
5.8%
Wiltz -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
US Mondorf-les-bains
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.42
0.93
0.36
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wiltz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.56
0.50
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.69
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.69
1.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
US Mondorf-les-bains
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.54
1.07
0.57
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wiltz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.23
1.19
1.00
0.71
1.50
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.75
0.50
1.62
0.62
1.88
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
2.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
US Mondorf-les-bains's squad is €2m more valuable than Wiltz's (€2m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →