US Mondorf-les-bains are the clear favourite, with the model assigning an 85% chance of an away win. Their recent five-game winning streak, including a 2-1 victory over Progres Niederkorn, fuels this confidence, especially as they play away against a home side that has struggled, losing their last two matches and conceding 2.4 goals per game. The expected total goals is 4.3, and the model predicts a 6+ total with a 26% probability, reflecting the high scoring potential. The single most likely scoreline is 0-3 for Mondorf-les-bains, with a 9.5% chance. US Rumelange’s home form shows they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded against stronger opponents, while Mondorf-les-bains average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Away +2 handicap (98.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (96.9%), Over 2.5 cards (96.3%), Draw or Away (95.2%), Away +1 handicap (95.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.7%), and Over 19.5 fouls (93.7%). The home win probability is 5%, draw 10%, and away win85%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
US Rumelange win
4.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
9.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains win
85.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
US Rumelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
2.10
1.80
2.40
2.60
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
2.20
2.10
1.80
2.40
2.60
1.80
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.93
2.13
0.87
1.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.81
0.96
2.00
0.93
1.58
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.75
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
93.3%
Under 1.5
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
80.5%
Under 2.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
62.6%
Under 3.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
9.5%
0-4
8.2%
0-2
8.1%
1-3
7.9%
1-4
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
0-5
5.7%
1-5
4.8%
US Rumelange goals ↓
US Mondorf-les-bains goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
4.3%
8.1%
9.5%
8.2%
1
0.7%
4.3%
6.8%
7.9%
6.9%
2
0.5%
1.6%
2.8%
3.3%
2.9%
3
0.1%
0.5%
0.8%
0.9%
0.8%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = US Rumelange goals (down), columns = US Mondorf-les-bains goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
US Rumelange is 1.80 points worse than US Mondorf-les-bains in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
US Rumelange is 0.80 goals worse than US Mondorf-les-bains in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
US Rumelange is 1.20 goals worse than US Mondorf-les-bains in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
US Rumelange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
US Mondorf-les-bains
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
US Rumelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.0
11.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
25.3
28.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
11.5
-
11.5
0.6
0.3
0.8
24.0
-
24.0
vs Weaker (8)
10.0
10.0
-
0.9
3.5
0.0
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
8%
9%
7%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
92%
91%
93%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.9%
Under 9.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
90.0%
Under 3.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.7%
Under 21.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
US Rumelange or Draw
14.7%
Avg Implied -
5%
10%
85%
covers US Rumelange + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange or US Mondorf-les-bains
90.1%
Avg Implied -
5%
10%
85%
covers US Rumelange + US Mondorf-les-bains
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or US Mondorf-les-bains
95.2%
Avg Implied -
5%
10%
85%
covers Draw + US Mondorf-les-bains
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5
Over
56.7%
Under
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5
Over
96.9%
Under
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5
Over
86.2%
Under
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 3.5
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to US Rumelange, so a minus line means US Rumelange give that many goals of a start and US Mondorf-les-bains receive them. At -1, US Rumelange must win by two or more to land; a one-goal US Rumelange win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (US Rumelange)
US Rumelange -2
0.3%
Draw -2
1.1%
US Mondorf-les-bains +2
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (US Rumelange)
US Rumelange -1
1.4%
Draw -1
3.4%
US Mondorf-les-bains +1
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (US Rumelange)
US Rumelange +1
14.7%
Draw +1
15.2%
US Mondorf-les-bains -1
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (US Rumelange)
US Rumelange +2
29.9%
Draw +2
19.4%
US Mondorf-les-bains -2
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
US Rumelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.42
0.93
0.36
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
US Rumelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (US Mondorf-les-bains) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Mondorf-les-bains
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.54
1.07
0.57
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Mondorf-les-bains over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away -1 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
US Rumelange's squad is €2m less valuable than US Mondorf-les-bains's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
US Rumelange and US Mondorf-les-bains have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
US Rumelange and US Mondorf-les-bains have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
US Rumelange and US Mondorf-les-bains have a similar defence value (both €0m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
UR wins
0
Draws
0
UM wins
Head-to-head
US Rumelange vs US Mondorf-les-bains · H/A from UR
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →