The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.8 goals expected. The most likely total is three goals, a 21% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 8.9% probability. Home side Ústí nad Labem, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Away Karviná, on the road, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The model favours an away win, with a 49% probability, while home win stands at 28% and a draw at 22%.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 96.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.9%, Under 6.5 at 91.2%, Over 1.5 at 89.8%, Away over 0.5 goals at 88.3%, Away +2 handicap at 86.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 83.0%, and Under 5.5 at 82.1%.
Ústí nad Labem have gone unbeaten in their last five matches, while Karviná return after a defeat. The model’s pick remains an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ústí nad Labem win
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karviná win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ústí nad Labem
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.33
1.79
1.14
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.40
1.82
1.00
1.57
1.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.00
1.67
1.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karviná
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.50
1.43
1.57
1.75
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.63
1.33
1.89
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ústí nad Labem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.8%
Under 1.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.5%
Under 2.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.9%
Under 3.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
71.6%
No
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.9%
1-2
8.6%
2-2
7.0%
2-1
6.5%
1-3
6.2%
0-2
5.3%
2-3
5.0%
0-1
4.2%
Ústí nad Labem goals ↓
Karviná goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
4.2%
5.3%
3.8%
2.0%
1
3.0%
8.9%
8.6%
6.2%
3.3%
2
3.0%
6.5%
7.0%
5.0%
2.7%
3
1.6%
3.5%
3.8%
2.7%
1.4%
4
0.7%
1.4%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ústí nad Labem goals (down), columns = Karviná goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ústí nad Labem
2.33
Karviná
2.00
Slavia Praha II
2.00
Příbram
2.00
Táborsko
1.83
Dukla Praha
1.67
Kladno
1.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.33
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Opava
1.00
Vlašim
1.00
Prostějov
0.83
Hanácká
0.67
Třinec
0.67
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Ústí nad Labem is 0.33 points better than Karviná in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha II
2.67
Karviná
2.00
Dukla Praha
1.83
Baník Ostrava II
1.83
Ústí nad Labem
1.83
Příbram
1.83
Vlašim
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50
Táborsko
1.33
Opava
1.33
Prostějov
1.33
Kladno
1.33
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Třinec
1.00
Hanácká
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Ústí nad Labem is 0.17 goals worse than Karviná in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.67
Ústí nad Labem
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava
1.00
Karviná
1.17
Kladno
1.17
Baník Ostrava II
1.33
Příbram
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.50
Prostějov
1.50
Vlašim
1.50
Opava
1.67
Slavia Praha II
1.67
Třinec
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.00
Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Žižkov
2.50
Ústí nad Labem is 0.33 goals better than Karviná in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ústí nad Labem or Draw
50.8%
Avg Implied -
28%
22%
49%
covers Ústí nad Labem + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem or Karviná
77.7%
Avg Implied -
28%
22%
49%
covers Ústí nad Labem + Karviná
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Karviná
71.5%
Avg Implied -
28%
22%
49%
covers Draw + Karviná
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 0.5
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 1.5
Over
48.1%
Under
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 2.5
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 0.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5
Over
63.2%
Under
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 3.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ústí nad Labem, so a minus line means Ústí nad Labem give that many goals of a start and Karviná receive them. At -1, Ústí nad Labem must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ústí nad Labem win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ústí nad Labem)
Ústí nad Labem -2
5.4%
Draw -2
8.5%
Karviná +2
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ústí nad Labem)
Ústí nad Labem -1
13.9%
Draw -1
14.5%
Karviná +1
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ústí nad Labem)
Ústí nad Labem +1
50.8%
Draw +1
19.5%
Karviná -1
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ústí nad Labem)
Ústí nad Labem +2
70.4%
Draw +2
14.9%
Karviná -2
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ústí nad Labem
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.00
0.36
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.60
0.91
0.36
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karviná
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.68
0.56
0.89
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
0.00
0.00
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ústí nad Labem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ústí nad Labem
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.79
0.79
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.80
0.91
0.64
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karviná
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.86
0.86
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.95
0.78
1.00
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.43
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ústí nad Labem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Karviná · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dávid Krčík33%
Abdallah Gning26%
Rok Štorman19%
Kahuan18%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Denny Samko12%
Emmanuel Ayaosi12%
Pavel Kačor12%
Aboubacar Traore12%
Samuel Šigut11%
Lucky Ezeh11%
Albert Labík8%
Alexandr Bužek8%
Jan Fiala7%
Sebastian Boháč5%
Ousmane Conde4%
Kristián Vallo0%
Jiři Fleišman0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Nino Milić0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yevgeniy Skyba33%
Filip Prebsl27%
Vladimir Neuman25%
Pavel Kačor25%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali17%
Aboubacar Traore16%
Emmanuel Ayaosi16%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Jan Fiala13%
Denny Samko12%
Rok Štorman11%
Sebastian Boháč11%
Jiři Fleišman10%
Nino Milić10%
Albert Labík8%
Jakub Lapes8%
Dávid Krčík6%
Abdallah Gning5%
Jakub Křišťan5%
Ousmane Conde4%
Lucky Ezeh4%
Kristián Vallo0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Samuel Šigut0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
David Planka0%
Alexandr Bužek0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Labík17%
Emmanuel Ayaosi16%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Dávid Krčík11%
Samuel Šigut11%
Abdallah Gning11%
Alexandr Bužek8%
Lucky Ezeh7%
Jan Fiala7%
Denny Samko6%
Pavel Kačor6%
Jan Chytrý5%
Rok Štorman4%
Sahmkou Camara3%
Kristián Vallo0%
Jiři Fleišman0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Nino Milić0%
Sebastian Boháč0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Aboubacar Traore0%
Ousmane Conde0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ebrima Singhateh50%
Abdallah Gning21%
Denny Samko16%
Emmanuel Ayaosi9%
Jan Fiala7%
Pavel Kačor6%
Ousmane Conde4%
Rok Štorman4%
Lucky Ezeh4%
Jiři Fleišman3%
Kristián Vallo0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Dávid Krčík0%
Samuel Šigut0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Nino Milić0%
Sebastian Boháč0%
Albert Labík0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Alexandr Bužek0%
Aboubacar Traore0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
ÚNL (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
KLA (11)
€2m
AČL (9)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Ústí nad Labem's squad is €5m less valuable than Karviná's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
VLA (8)
€2m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
AČL (3)
€0m
KLA (4)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Ústí nad Labem's attack is €3m less valuable than Karviná's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
ÚNL (6)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
KLA (2)
€1m
AČL (2)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Ústí nad Labem and Karviná have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
KLA (5)
€1m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
AČL (4)
€0m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Ústí nad Labem's defence is €1m less valuable than Karviná's (€1m vs €2m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
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