This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.03
1.87
1.73
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
3.33
2.67
2.67
0.50
3.67
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.48
1.67
1.50
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.2%
@ 1.44-3.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
@ 2.72+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
6.7%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
Utrecht goals ↓
Fortuna Sittard goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.8%
10%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.7%
7.1%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.6%
3.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Utrecht goals (down), columns = Fortuna Sittard goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.59
PSV Eindhoven
2.12
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Vitesse
1.79
Feyenoord
1.74
Utrecht
1.56
Groningen
1.47
Sparta Rotterdam
1.38
Heracles
1.29
Twente
1.21
Fortuna Sittard
1.21
Heerenveen
1.15
PEC Zwolle
1.12
Willem II
0.91
Waalwijk
0.88
Emmen
0.88
VVV Venlo
0.68
Den Haag
0.65
Utrecht is 0.35 points better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.00
AZ Alkmaar
2.21
PSV Eindhoven
2.18
Feyenoord
1.88
Vitesse
1.53
Utrecht
1.53
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
Sparta Rotterdam
1.44
Twente
1.41
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heerenveen
1.26
VVV Venlo
1.26
Heracles
1.24
Willem II
1.18
Groningen
1.18
Emmen
1.18
Waalwijk
0.97
Den Haag
0.85
Utrecht is 0.06 goals better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.68
PSV Eindhoven
1.03
Feyenoord
1.06
Groningen
1.09
Vitesse
1.12
AZ Alkmaar
1.21
Utrecht
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam
1.41
Heerenveen
1.44
Twente
1.47
PEC Zwolle
1.56
Heracles
1.56
Waalwijk
1.62
Fortuna Sittard
1.71
Willem II
2.00
Emmen
2.00
Den Haag
2.24
VVV Venlo
2.68
Utrecht is 0.50 goals better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Utrecht
For 6.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.4 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Sittard
For 2.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.1
9.7
3.1
3.3
3.0
21.6
21.4
21.7
vs Stronger (10)
10.6
9.8
11.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
21.2
20.8
21.6
vs Similar (7)
9.0
9.8
7.0
3.4
3.2
4.0
21.0
22.4
17.5
vs Weaker (33)
10.5
12.0
9.5
3.3
3.7
3.0
21.8
21.2
22.2
% over line
52%
54%
50%
34%
46%
23%
44%
46%
42%
% under line
48%
46%
50%
66%
54%
77%
56%
54%
58%
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.3
3.5
4.3
2.8
22.4
23.2
21.7
vs Stronger (16)
11.1
12.6
10.5
2.1
3.4
1.5
20.4
20.8
20.3
vs Similar (34)
10.3
10.3
10.1
4.2
4.5
3.8
23.4
23.8
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
64%
40%
48%
60%
36%
56%
52%
60%
% under line
48%
36%
60%
52%
40%
64%
44%
48%
40%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Heerenveen
11.5
PEC Zwolle
10.6
Ajax
10.6
Fortuna Sittard
10.5
Sparta Rotterdam
10.5
Den Haag
10.4
Feyenoord
10.3
PSV Eindhoven
10.3
Utrecht
10.3
AZ Alkmaar
10.3
Vitesse
10.2
Heracles
10.2
VVV Venlo
9.9
Emmen
9.9
Willem II
9.8
Groningen
9.7
Twente
9.6
Waalwijk
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Heracles
3.7
Waalwijk
3.7
Twente
3.6
Fortuna Sittard
3.5
Den Haag
3.5
Groningen
3.5
Willem II
3.4
Sparta Rotterdam
3.3
PEC Zwolle
3.2
Feyenoord
3.1
Ajax
3.1
Utrecht
3.1
AZ Alkmaar
3.1
VVV Venlo
3.1
PSV Eindhoven
3.0
Heerenveen
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heracles
24.2
Twente
24.0
Willem II
23.4
Vitesse
23.4
Emmen
23.4
VVV Venlo
23.3
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Fortuna Sittard
22.4
Waalwijk
22.4
Feyenoord
22.1
Sparta Rotterdam
22.1
Groningen
21.9
AZ Alkmaar
21.7
Den Haag
21.6
Utrecht
21.6
Ajax
21.3
PSV Eindhoven
20.4
Heerenveen
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.5%
Under 9.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
56.5%
Under 21.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.64
0.36
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.42
0.86
0.00
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
1.07
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.56
1.67
1.33
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.62
0.92
0.92
0.56
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.50
0.71
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.68
2.14
0.57
0.83
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.13
0.80
0.73
0.27
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.78
1.00
1.33
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.86
0.75
0.58
0.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Utrecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Fortuna Sittard · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Édouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Édouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Édouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Édouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
Utrecht's squad is €45m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€61m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
Utrecht's attack is €27m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€33m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EMM (7)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Utrecht's midfield is €10m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€14m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
Utrecht's defence is €8m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€15m vs €7m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Feyenoord
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles
Twente
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Willem II
Waalwijk
Emmen
VVV Venlo