PythiaFootballBETA
In this Eredivisie match, Utrecht's recent unbeaten streak in their last 5 games (DWWWW) sets the tone for a closely contested match against Fortuna Sittard. Utrecht are the favourites to win with a 55% chance, while a draw is possible at 25% and Fortuna Sittard's 20% chance of winning is the least likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with an average of 2 goals most likely.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.9% probability. Utrecht have a strong home form, scoring 1.67 goals and conceding 0.5 goals on average, while Fortuna Sittard's away form is weaker, scoring 1.38 goals and conceding 2.62 goals. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has a high probability of 78.7% and is likely to hit. The model's pick is a Home win. Utrecht's home win percentage is 55%, a draw is 25%, and Fortuna Sittard's away win percentage is 20%.
Utrecht's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, having drawn with Ajax in their previous outing, was extended as they secured a 2-0 win over Fortuna Sittard. The home win, as predicted by the Pythia model, was the correct outcome, with the model's selection having a 55% pre-match probability of happening. The model's call was correct, as the final score indeed landed in favour of Utrecht. The model's selection, a home win, was the favourite. The model also correctly identified that the score would be over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 78.7%, and this selection hit.
Utrecht| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.29 | 0.93 | 1.38 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.56 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.25 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.83 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.40 | 1.13 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 1.22 | 1.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Fortuna Sittard| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.83 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 1.43 | 2.29 | 1.57 | 1.71 | 1.29 | 2.86 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
| Fortuna Sittard goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 12% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.6% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
UtrechtFortuna SittardUtrecht| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 22.7 | 23.8 | 21.6 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 11.0 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 22.4 | 26.3 | 17.6 |
| vs Similar (12) | 9.1 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 22.6 | 22.0 | 23.0 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 22.8 | 23.1 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 54% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 46% | 54% | 54% | 68% | 42% |
| % under line | 46% | 45% | 46% | 50% | 54% | 46% | 46% | 32% | 58% |
Fortuna Sittard| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 23.6 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 10.5 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 24.0 | 26.2 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (27) | 10.7 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 24.7 | 24.3 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 58% | 58% | 58% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 72% | 77% | 67% |
| % under line | 42% | 42% | 42% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 28% | 23% | 33% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/05/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/12/24 | H | 2-5 | |
| 11/02/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 28/10/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/03/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/09/22 | A | 3-4 | |
| 09/04/22 | H | 1-1 |
Utrecht| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 1-1 |
Fortuna Sittard| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 84 | 79% | 2.5 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 4.3 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 11.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 29% | 18.6 | 21% | 323 | 139 | 77 | 108 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 45% | 21.6 | 50% | 216 | 78 | 51 | 87 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 3 |  Ajax | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 65 | 42 | +23 | 3.0 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.7 | 44% | 22.4 | 58% | 260 | 119 | 53 | 87 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 3.8 | 97% | 74% | 56% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.1 | 47% | 24.1 | 65% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 5 |  Twente | 34 | 58 | 44% | 1.7 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 85% | 50% | 32% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.6 | 41% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 | Utrecht | 36 | 57 | 44% | 1.6 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 58% | 3.4 | 46% | 21.9 | 47% | 88 | 30 | 24 | 34 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 52 | 41% | 1.5 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 44% | 10.3 | 56% | 3.6 | 39% | 21.6 | 50% | 205 | 100 | 43 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 59 | 58 | +1 | 3.2 | 94% | 69% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.1 | 37% | 20.4 | 42% | 49 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 9 |  Groningen | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 2.7 | 89% | 54% | 23% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.5 | 45% | 20.8 | 51% | 32 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.0 | 76% | 53% | 38% | 11.2 | 68% | 4.1 | 68% | 20.7 | 44% | 32 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39 | 32% | 1.1 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 88% | 68% | 38% | 11.1 | 59% | 3.6 | 42% | 23.9 | 65% | 22 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 38 | 24% | 1.1 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 11.6 | 71% | 3.5 | 39% | 19.1 | 24% | 36 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 34 | 38 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 2.9 | 82% | 62% | 29% | 9.3 | 44% | 3.3 | 40% | 21.0 | 41% | 19 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Telstar | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 3.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.5 | 41% | 21.6 | 47% | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 3.4 | 85% | 62% | 44% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.5 | 47% | 23.3 | 68% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 45% |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 2.6 | 85% | 59% | 18% | 10.3 | 62% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 35 | 32 | 20% | 0.9 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.7 | 71% | 49% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.7 | 69% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 19 | 15% | 0.6 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 3.5 | 91% | 71% | 38% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.9 | 53% | 24.8 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |