This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.77
1.27
1.07
1.53
2.47
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.57
0.80
1.80
2.00
4.50
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.61
1.29
0.86
1.36
2.09
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
1.20
2.00
0.33
2.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.2%
No
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.1%
3-1 ✓
4.7%
1-3
4.7%
2-0
4.6%
0-2
4.6%
Utrecht goals ↓
Heerenveen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.4%
4.6%
2.7%
1.2%
1
4.4%
10%
8.1%
4.7%
2.1%
2
4.6%
8.1%
7.1%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.7%
4.7%
4.1%
2.4%
1.1%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Utrecht goals (down), columns = Heerenveen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Ajax
2.32
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Feyenoord
1.94
Utrecht
1.59
Vitesse
1.44
Den Haag
1.38
Heerenveen
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heracles
1.24
Excelsior
1.18
Groningen
1.12
Willem II
1.09
NAC Breda
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Roda
0.88
Sparta Rotterdam
0.79
Twente
0.71
Utrecht is 0.24 points better than Heerenveen in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.62
PSV Eindhoven
2.56
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
2.12
Vitesse
1.85
Utrecht
1.71
Heracles
1.47
Groningen
1.47
Willem II
1.47
Heerenveen
1.41
Den Haag
1.32
Roda
1.24
PEC Zwolle
1.24
Excelsior
1.21
NAC Breda
1.21
Twente
1.09
VVV Venlo
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Utrecht is 0.29 goals better than Heerenveen in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.97
AZ Alkmaar
1.12
Feyenoord
1.15
PSV Eindhoven
1.15
Vitesse
1.38
Groningen
1.47
Utrecht
1.56
Den Haag
1.56
Heerenveen
1.56
PEC Zwolle
1.59
VVV Venlo
1.59
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.68
Willem II
1.85
Twente
1.85
Heracles
1.88
Roda
2.03
Sparta Rotterdam
2.21
Utrecht and Heerenveen are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Utrecht
For 6.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
For 6.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
8.0
11.0
0.4
0.3
0.6
26.0
25.3
26.5
vs Stronger (8)
8.0
8.0
-
0.6
1.2
0.0
31.0
31.0
-
vs Similar (12)
11.0
-
11.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
27.0
-
27.0
vs Weaker (30)
9.8
8.0
11.0
0.5
0.1
0.8
24.8
22.5
26.3
% over line
43%
0%
75%
6%
4%
8%
86%
67%
100%
% under line
57%
100%
25%
94%
96%
92%
14%
33%
0%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.7
10.2
0.5
0.6
0.3
26.7
29.0
25.0
vs Stronger (13)
11.0
11.0
-
0.9
1.5
0.0
29.5
29.5
-
vs Similar (28)
10.5
13.0
9.7
0.3
0.2
0.4
25.2
28.0
24.3
vs Weaker (9)
12.0
-
12.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
27.0
-
27.0
% over line
71%
100%
50%
4%
8%
0%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
29%
0%
50%
96%
92%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AZ Alkmaar
15.6
Sparta Rotterdam
12.9
NAC Breda
12.0
Roda
11.7
Vitesse
11.6
Ajax
11.3
Excelsior
11.3
Den Haag
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.0
Heerenveen
10.9
Heracles
10.6
Groningen
10.1
Feyenoord
9.7
Utrecht
9.7
Twente
9.4
VVV Venlo
9.3
PEC Zwolle
9.1
Willem II
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PEC Zwolle
4.7
Groningen
4.6
Twente
4.4
Ajax
4.4
Den Haag
4.1
Sparta Rotterdam
4.0
Heracles
4.0
PSV Eindhoven
4.0
NAC Breda
3.7
Vitesse
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.7
Feyenoord
3.6
Heerenveen
3.3
Utrecht
3.1
Excelsior
3.0
Willem II
2.9
AZ Alkmaar
2.4
Roda
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feyenoord
28.6
Heracles
27.6
PSV Eindhoven
27.3
NAC Breda
27.0
Heerenveen
26.7
Ajax
26.1
Den Haag
26.0
Utrecht
26.0
Vitesse
25.9
Twente
25.6
Excelsior
24.4
AZ Alkmaar
24.1
Sparta Rotterdam
24.1
Groningen
23.4
Willem II
23.0
Roda
23.0
VVV Venlo
22.4
PEC Zwolle
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.0%
Under 9.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.7%
Under 21.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.71
0.29
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.37
0.78
0.11
0.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.27
0.47
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
0.60
0.60
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
0.56
1.00
0.14
0.57
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
1.00
0.71
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.60
0.67
2.67
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.11
0.26
1.00
0.22
1.20
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.60
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.20
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.61
1.14
0.29
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.80
2.00
0.33
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Utrecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Heerenveen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
VV (19)
€4m
Utrecht's squad is €11m more valuable than Heerenveen's (€61m vs €50m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
VV (6)
€1m
Utrecht's attack is €9m more valuable than Heerenveen's (€33m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
NB (3)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Utrecht's midfield is €7m more valuable than Heerenveen's (€14m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
Utrecht's defence is €6m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€15m vs €20m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Vitesse
PEC Zwolle
Heracles
Excelsior
Groningen
Willem II
NAC Breda
VVV Venlo
Roda
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente