Utrecht is the favourite to win at home against Heerenveen, with the model predicting a home win as the most likely outcome. This match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with an average of 2.7 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 12.3% of the time. Utrecht has been unbeaten in their last 5 games, scoring an average of 1.71 goals at home and conceding just 0.43.
Heerenveen, on the other hand, has been struggling away from home, scoring 0.8 goals per game and conceding 2.8 against stronger opponents. The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals (77%), as Utrecht tends to score more at home, and Under 3.5 goals (71%). Utrecht has a 54% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing. The model's selections are Home win (54%), Over 1.5 goals (77%), and Under 3.5 goals (71%).
Results analysis
The win extends Utrecht's unbeaten run to 6 matches, following a 0-0 draw against Ajax. In a shocking turn of events, the final score was 3-2 in favour of Utrecht, well clear of the expected 2.7 total goals and the most likely outcome of 2 goals. The model predicted a home win, which was correct, with a pre-match probability of 54%. Utrecht was indeed the favourite, with Heerenveen considered a weaker opponent. The model's selection, Home win, was correct. The model also suggested Over 1.5, which hit, and Under 3.5, which missed, with probabilities of 76.9% and 70.7% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Utrecht win✓ Hit
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.53
1.67
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
2.00
1.00
1.25
2.33
3.00
vs Similar (9)
1.33
1.22
1.00
1.40
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
1.07
1.83
0.50
1.12
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.57
2.08
1.31
1.47
1.76
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
2.00
1.25
1.25
1.20
2.60
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.31
2.29
1.14
1.78
1.44
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.60
3.00
2.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
5.7%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
Utrecht goals ↓
Heerenveen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
5.3%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
1
10%
12%
5.6%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.9%
9.8%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.7%
5.7%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.5%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Utrecht goals (down), columns = Heerenveen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Excelsior
1.12
PEC Zwolle
1.09
Telstar
1.09
FC Volendam
0.94
NAC Breda
0.91
Heracles
0.56
Utrecht is 0.17 points better than Heerenveen in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.81
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.64
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Telstar
1.44
Groningen
1.40
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
NAC Breda
1.06
FC Volendam
1.03
Heracles
1.03
Utrecht and Heerenveen are level in goals scored per game (both 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.17
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.25
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
FC Volendam
1.62
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.66
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Heracles
2.50
Utrecht is 0.36 goals better than Heerenveen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
NAC Breda
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
FC Volendam
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Heracles
45%
Utrecht is 4.7 percentage points worse than Heerenveen in terms of average possession (47% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Utrecht
For 5.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
For 5.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 7.6 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
3.7
3.8
3.5
22.5
23.4
21.6
vs Stronger (9)
11.3
10.2
12.8
4.7
6.6
2.2
22.4
26.4
17.5
vs Similar (16)
8.5
8.9
8.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.2
23.2
21.2
vs Weaker (25)
9.5
9.5
9.5
3.3
2.8
3.8
22.8
22.1
23.4
% over line
50%
48%
52%
54%
48%
60%
52%
65%
39%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
46%
52%
40%
48%
35%
61%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
20.9
20.1
21.6
vs Stronger (13)
10.3
10.4
10.2
2.6
1.8
3.1
19.6
18.0
20.6
vs Similar (31)
10.2
10.1
10.3
3.3
3.6
3.0
21.6
20.9
22.5
vs Weaker (6)
9.3
10.5
8.8
1.8
1.0
2.2
19.7
19.0
20.0
% over line
54%
61%
48%
30%
35%
26%
42%
35%
48%
% under line
46%
39%
52%
70%
65%
74%
58%
65%
52%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.4
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Sparta Rotterdam
10.6
Telstar
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
AZ Alkmaar
10.2
Heerenveen
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Ajax
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
10.0
Feyenoord
9.8
NAC Breda
9.8
Excelsior
9.7
Twente
9.6
Utrecht
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.1
AZ Alkmaar
4.0
Feyenoord
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Twente
3.8
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
NAC Breda
3.7
Heracles
3.6
Fortuna Sittard
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.6
Groningen
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
FC Volendam
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fortuna Sittard
24.4
Heracles
24.2
NEC Nijmegen
23.4
Feyenoord
23.0
PEC Zwolle
23.0
NAC Breda
22.6
Utrecht
22.5
Telstar
22.4
FC Volendam
22.4
AZ Alkmaar
22.4
Excelsior
22.2
Ajax
21.9
Twente
21.2
Heerenveen
20.9
Groningen
20.5
Sparta Rotterdam
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.0%
Under 9.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.5%
Under 21.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.67
0.13
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.25
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.22
0.60
0.00
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.43
0.83
0.17
0.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.92
0.62
0.53
0.76
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.75
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.56
1.00
0.57
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.67
0.87
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.29
0.50
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.00
0.40
1.40
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.64
1.00
0.33
0.75
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
1.15
0.69
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.50
0.25
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.75
1.29
0.57
1.11
0.89
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.20
2.00
2.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (50)
€323m
AJA (62)
€260m
FEY (32)
€216m
AA (60)
€205m
UTR (51)
€88m
TWE (27)
€84m
NN (28)
€62m
HEE (23)
€49m
GAE (31)
€36m
SR (26)
€32m
GRO (23)
€32m
PZ (29)
€23m
FS (28)
€22m
EXC (28)
€19m
FV (32)
€14m
HER (34)
€14m
TEL (24)
€12m
NB (26)
€11m
Utrecht's squad is €39m more valuable than Heerenveen's (€88m vs €49m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (19)
€139m
AJA (24)
€119m
AA (22)
€100m
FEY (13)
€78m
UTR (19)
€30m
NN (13)
€27m
TWE (10)
€26m
HEE (10)
€22m
GAE (12)
€17m
SR (9)
€13m
GRO (8)
€11m
PZ (12)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (7)
€7m
HER (14)
€7m
FV (12)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
TEL (8)
€4m
Utrecht's attack is €8m more valuable than Heerenveen's (€30m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (10)
€77m
AJA (13)
€53m
FEY (4)
€51m
AA (12)
€43m
NN (6)
€26m
UTR (10)
€24m
TWE (4)
€13m
GRO (3)
€9m
HEE (3)
€6m
FS (7)
€6m
GAE (6)
€6m
TEL (7)
€5m
PZ (6)
€5m
FV (7)
€3m
HER (6)
€3m
SR (4)
€2m
NB (4)
€2m
EXC (4)
€2m
Utrecht's midfield is €18m more valuable than Heerenveen's (€24m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (21)
€108m
FEY (15)
€87m
AJA (25)
€87m
AA (26)
€62m
TWE (13)
€45m
UTR (22)
€34m
HEE (10)
€20m
SR (13)
€16m
GAE (13)
€14m
GRO (12)
€11m
PZ (11)
€9m
NN (9)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (14)
€8m
FV (13)
€7m
NB (12)
€5m
HER (14)
€4m
TEL (9)
€3m
Utrecht's defence is €13m more valuable than Heerenveen's (€34m vs €20m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Telstar
PEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
Heracles