This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.89
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.75
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
1.00
1.50
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.2%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.6%
0-0
6.6%
2-2 ✓
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
Utrecht goals ↓
NAC Breda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.4%
3.9%
1.5%
0.5%
1
8.2%
12%
6.6%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.6%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.6%
5.5%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Utrecht goals (down), columns = NAC Breda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Ajax
2.32
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Feyenoord
1.94
Utrecht
1.59
Vitesse
1.44
Den Haag
1.38
Heerenveen
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heracles
1.24
Excelsior
1.18
Groningen
1.12
Willem II
1.09
NAC Breda
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Roda
0.88
Sparta Rotterdam
0.79
Twente
0.71
Utrecht is 0.59 points better than NAC Breda in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.62
PSV Eindhoven
2.56
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
2.12
Vitesse
1.85
Utrecht
1.71
Heracles
1.47
Groningen
1.47
Willem II
1.47
Heerenveen
1.41
Den Haag
1.32
Roda
1.24
PEC Zwolle
1.24
Excelsior
1.21
NAC Breda
1.21
Twente
1.09
VVV Venlo
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Utrecht is 0.50 goals better than NAC Breda in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.97
AZ Alkmaar
1.12
Feyenoord
1.15
PSV Eindhoven
1.15
Vitesse
1.38
Groningen
1.47
Utrecht
1.56
Den Haag
1.56
Heerenveen
1.56
PEC Zwolle
1.59
VVV Venlo
1.59
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.68
Willem II
1.85
Twente
1.85
Heracles
1.88
Roda
2.03
Sparta Rotterdam
2.21
Utrecht is 0.12 goals better than NAC Breda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Utrecht
For 5.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NAC Breda
For 4.9 · Against 6.8 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.5
10.8
0.6
0.4
0.8
26.3
25.2
27.2
vs Stronger (8)
8.0
8.0
-
0.6
1.2
0.0
31.0
31.0
-
vs Similar (13)
10.3
10.0
10.5
0.9
0.6
1.3
27.3
25.0
28.5
vs Weaker (29)
9.8
8.0
11.0
0.5
0.1
0.8
24.8
22.5
26.3
% over line
56%
25%
80%
10%
8%
12%
89%
75%
100%
% under line
44%
75%
20%
90%
92%
88%
11%
25%
0%
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
11.7
12.4
10.8
3.7
5.0
2.0
26.4
26.8
26.0
vs Stronger (3)
13.3
14.0
13.0
2.7
4.0
2.0
30.7
33.0
29.5
vs Similar (6)
10.8
12.0
8.5
4.2
5.2
2.0
24.3
25.2
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
78%
80%
75%
56%
100%
0%
78%
80%
75%
% under line
22%
20%
25%
44%
0%
100%
22%
20%
25%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AZ Alkmaar
14.4
Sparta Rotterdam
12.8
Excelsior
12.0
PSV Eindhoven
11.9
NAC Breda
11.7
Roda
11.2
Ajax
11.1
Feyenoord
10.7
Den Haag
10.7
Heracles
10.6
Groningen
10.3
Vitesse
10.3
Heerenveen
10.2
VVV Venlo
10.1
PEC Zwolle
10.0
Utrecht
9.8
Twente
8.8
Willem II
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PEC Zwolle
4.5
Groningen
4.4
Den Haag
4.3
Twente
4.2
Ajax
4.2
PSV Eindhoven
4.1
Sparta Rotterdam
4.0
Excelsior
3.9
Feyenoord
3.8
Heracles
3.7
NAC Breda
3.7
Utrecht
3.4
VVV Venlo
3.4
Vitesse
3.1
Willem II
3.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.0
Heerenveen
3.0
Roda
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feyenoord
28.9
Heracles
27.9
Ajax
27.9
Vitesse
27.4
Excelsior
26.9
Heerenveen
26.9
Den Haag
26.7
PSV Eindhoven
26.4
NAC Breda
26.4
Sparta Rotterdam
26.3
Utrecht
26.3
Twente
26.2
AZ Alkmaar
24.8
Willem II
24.6
Groningen
24.0
PEC Zwolle
23.4
Roda
23.2
VVV Venlo
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.7%
Under 9.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.2%
Under 21.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.86
0.36
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.39
0.88
0.12
0.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.67
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.93
0.64
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.60
0.67
2.67
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.71
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.22
0.88
0.12
1.20
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NAC Breda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.33
0.60
1.60
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.17
0.75
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Utrecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
NAC Breda · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Gladon50%
Moussa Soumano50%
Pepijn Reulen50%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Mats Seuntjens0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan Van den Bergh50%
Fredrik Jensen50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Maximilien Balard33%
Michael Verrips25%
Paul Gladon25%
Mohamed Nassoh25%
Pepijn Reulen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Rio Hillen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Seuntjens33%
Jannes Van Hecke33%
Boyd Lucassen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Paul Gladon0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Gladon50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Leo Greiml25%
Rio Hillen25%
Charles-Andreas Brym25%
Moussa Soumano25%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
VV (19)
€4m
Utrecht's squad is €51m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€61m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
VV (6)
€1m
Utrecht's attack is €29m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€33m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
NB (3)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Utrecht's midfield is €12m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€14m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
Utrecht's defence is €11m more valuable than NAC Breda's (€15m vs €4m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Vitesse
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Heracles
Excelsior
Groningen
Willem II
VVV Venlo
Roda
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente