This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
2.26
1.10
1.60
1.11
3.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
4.00
0.67
2.33
1.67
5.67
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.46
1.29
1.29
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
16% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.0%
Under 3.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.2%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
7.0%
4-0
5.2%
4-1
5.0%
Valencia goals ↓
Rayo Vallecano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.2%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
7.0%
8.2%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
2
9.8%
9.4%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
8.2%
7.9%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
5.2%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valencia goals (down), columns = Rayo Vallecano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.39
Real Madrid
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.32
Villarreal
1.68
Athletic Club
1.63
Celta Vigo
1.58
Sevilla
1.37
Real Sociedad
1.26
Malaga
1.26
Real Betis
1.18
Las Palmas
1.16
Valencia
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Eibar
1.13
Deportivo La Coruna
1.11
Sporting Gijon
1.03
Granada CF
1.03
Rayo Vallecano
1.00
Getafe
0.95
Levante
0.84
Valencia is 0.16 points better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.95
Real Madrid
2.89
Atletico Madrid
1.66
Athletic Club
1.53
Rayo Vallecano
1.37
Celta Vigo
1.34
Sevilla
1.34
Eibar
1.29
Granada CF
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Real Sociedad
1.18
Deportivo La Coruna
1.18
Las Palmas
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Sporting Gijon
1.05
Espanyol
1.05
Malaga
1.00
Getafe
0.97
Levante
0.97
Real Betis
0.89
Valencia is 0.16 goals worse than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.47
Barcelona
0.76
Real Madrid
0.89
Malaga
0.92
Villarreal
0.92
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.26
Valencia
1.26
Sevilla
1.32
Real Betis
1.37
Las Palmas
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.55
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Eibar
1.61
Sporting Gijon
1.63
Getafe
1.76
Granada CF
1.82
Levante
1.84
Rayo Vallecano
1.92
Espanyol
1.95
Valencia is 0.66 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Valencia
For 3.4 · Against 7.6 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.8 · Against 18.4 · Total 36.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
For 5.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 15.2 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valencia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (19)
11.3
10.0
12.4
6.1
5.4
6.6
34.2
34.2
34.2
vs Stronger (3)
9.3
8.5
11.0
5.0
3.5
8.0
33.0
31.5
36.0
vs Similar (12)
11.3
9.0
13.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
34.3
33.4
35.0
vs Weaker (4)
12.5
14.0
11.0
7.0
6.0
8.0
34.8
39.0
30.5
% over line
68%
56%
80%
95%
89%
100%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
32%
44%
20%
5%
11%
0%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (19)
10.2
9.6
10.9
5.3
5.0
5.6
27.7
27.8
27.6
vs Stronger (6)
12.2
11.0
13.3
5.0
5.7
4.3
26.7
27.7
25.7
vs Similar (13)
9.3
9.0
9.7
5.4
4.7
6.2
28.2
27.9
28.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
50%
56%
89%
90%
89%
95%
100%
89%
% under line
47%
50%
44%
11%
10%
11%
5%
0%
11%
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Real Madrid
11.5
Villarreal
11.4
Valencia
11.3
Sevilla
11.0
Athletic Club
11.0
Espanyol
10.7
Celta Vigo
10.6
Deportivo La Coruna
10.5
Malaga
10.4
Barcelona
10.4
Rayo Vallecano
10.2
Eibar
10.2
Real Sociedad
10.1
Real Betis
10.1
Getafe
9.9
Levante
9.5
Granada CF
9.5
Sporting Gijon
9.4
Atletico Madrid
8.5
Las Palmas
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Espanyol
6.7
Granada CF
6.5
Levante
6.4
Real Betis
6.4
Malaga
6.3
Real Sociedad
6.3
Eibar
6.1
Sevilla
6.1
Valencia
6.1
Celta Vigo
6.0
Athletic Club
5.7
Sporting Gijon
5.6
Villarreal
5.5
Las Palmas
5.5
Getafe
5.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.3
Atletico Madrid
5.2
Real Madrid
4.9
Barcelona
4.9
Deportivo La Coruna
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valencia
34.2
Espanyol
33.6
Granada CF
31.2
Levante
30.2
Las Palmas
29.5
Malaga
29.4
Sevilla
29.3
Celta Vigo
28.9
Villarreal
28.3
Athletic Club
28.1
Real Betis
27.8
Rayo Vallecano
27.7
Eibar
27.7
Real Sociedad
27.6
Getafe
26.9
Barcelona
26.6
Atletico Madrid
25.6
Sporting Gijon
25.4
Real Madrid
24.5
Deportivo La Coruna
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.5%
Under 9.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.4%
Under 3.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.0%
Under 21.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valencia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.53
0.89
0.44
0.30
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.84
0.70
0.60
0.56
1.11
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
0.33
1.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.54
0.86
0.43
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valencia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.58
0.60
0.20
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.42
0.40
1.00
0.56
1.89
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.50
0.33
1.33
0.33
3.67
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.92
0.43
0.86
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
21% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valencia · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Umar Sadiq33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mouctar Diakhaby67%
Stole Dimitrievski33%
Ryunosuke Sato33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arnaut Danjuma33%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Rayo Vallecano · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
RV (23)
€76m
MAL (27)
€41m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Valencia's squad is €49m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€125m vs €76m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Valencia's attack is €10m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€40m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Valencia's midfield is €37m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€46m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
EIB (10)
€5m
Valencia's defence is €3m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€39m vs €36m).
Spain: La Liga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo
Sevilla
Malaga
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Las Palmas
Eibar
Espanyol
Deportivo La Coruna
Sporting Gijon
Granada CF
Getafe
Levante