This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.17
2.00
0.92
1.24
1.35
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.10
2.67
1.67
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
1.06
2.00
0.56
1.29
1.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.3%
0-1 ✓
7.2%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
5.0%
Valencia goals ↓
Villarreal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
7.2%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.8%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.1%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.1%
4.5%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valencia goals (down), columns = Villarreal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.45
Atletico Madrid
2.08
Real Madrid
2.00
Valencia
1.92
Villarreal
1.61
Real Betis
1.58
Sevilla
1.53
Getafe
1.45
Eibar
1.34
Girona
1.34
Celta Vigo
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.29
Espanyol
1.29
Alaves
1.24
Levante
1.21
Leganes
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Deportivo La Coruna
0.76
Las Palmas
0.58
Malaga
0.53
Valencia is 0.32 points better than Villarreal in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.61
Real Madrid
2.47
Real Sociedad
1.74
Valencia
1.71
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.55
Atletico Madrid
1.53
Villarreal
1.50
Girona
1.32
Sevilla
1.29
Eibar
1.16
Levante
1.16
Getafe
1.11
Athletic Club
1.08
Alaves
1.05
Deportivo La Coruna
1.00
Espanyol
0.95
Leganes
0.89
Malaga
0.63
Las Palmas
0.63
Valencia is 0.21 goals better than Villarreal in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.58
Barcelona
0.76
Getafe
0.87
Valencia
1.00
Espanyol
1.11
Real Madrid
1.16
Athletic Club
1.29
Eibar
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Villarreal
1.32
Leganes
1.34
Sevilla
1.53
Levante
1.53
Real Sociedad
1.55
Girona
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.58
Malaga
1.61
Real Betis
1.61
Las Palmas
1.95
Deportivo La Coruna
2.00
Valencia is 0.32 goals better than Villarreal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Valencia
For 5.7 · Against 6.2 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.5 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Villarreal
For 5.1 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valencia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.1
9.4
5.6
5.0
6.2
29.1
29.0
29.3
vs Stronger (9)
9.7
9.6
9.8
5.7
5.0
6.5
25.0
27.2
22.2
vs Similar (32)
9.3
9.3
9.3
5.7
4.9
6.4
31.2
30.9
31.4
vs Weaker (9)
11.6
13.0
9.8
5.1
5.0
5.2
25.9
24.8
27.2
% over line
50%
56%
44%
84%
80%
88%
96%
96%
96%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
16%
20%
12%
4%
4%
4%
This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
27.4
26.9
27.9
vs Stronger (8)
10.1
7.8
12.5
5.2
4.8
5.8
26.5
26.8
26.2
vs Similar (16)
9.6
9.3
9.7
5.1
5.5
4.8
27.9
27.7
28.0
vs Weaker (26)
10.8
10.9
10.6
4.9
4.9
4.8
27.5
26.6
28.4
% over line
58%
58%
58%
84%
79%
88%
86%
83%
88%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
16%
21%
12%
14%
17%
12%
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Deportivo La Coruna
10.5
Real Madrid
10.4
Real Sociedad
10.3
Villarreal
10.3
Levante
10.1
Getafe
10.0
Athletic Club
10.0
Valencia
9.8
Alaves
9.7
Las Palmas
9.6
Espanyol
9.5
Barcelona
9.5
Girona
9.4
Eibar
9.4
Malaga
9.3
Real Betis
9.3
Sevilla
9.3
Atletico Madrid
9.1
Leganes
8.4
Celta Vigo
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Girona
5.9
Alaves
5.9
Malaga
5.8
Getafe
5.7
Levante
5.6
Athletic Club
5.6
Valencia
5.6
Sevilla
5.6
Celta Vigo
5.5
Las Palmas
5.4
Real Betis
5.3
Real Sociedad
5.2
Leganes
5.1
Espanyol
5.1
Real Madrid
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.0
Eibar
5.0
Villarreal
5.0
Atletico Madrid
5.0
Barcelona
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Leganes
31.1
Girona
30.5
Real Sociedad
29.7
Las Palmas
29.6
Sevilla
29.5
Alaves
29.3
Valencia
29.1
Malaga
28.5
Real Betis
28.3
Espanyol
28.0
Deportivo La Coruna
28.0
Celta Vigo
27.8
Getafe
27.7
Levante
27.6
Villarreal
27.4
Athletic Club
27.1
Atletico Madrid
26.7
Barcelona
25.9
Real Madrid
25.6
Eibar
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.6%
Under 3.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.1%
Under 21.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valencia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.81
0.25
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.32
1.00
0.33
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.54
0.15
0.59
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.19
0.44
0.00
0.43
0.43
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valencia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.83
1.31
0.62
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.74
1.25
0.67
1.43
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
2.50
0.50
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.46
0.77
0.65
0.82
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.50
1.67
1.00
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.88
1.56
0.56
0.86
1.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valencia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valencia · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Umar Sadiq33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mouctar Diakhaby67%
Stole Dimitrievski33%
Ryunosuke Sato33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arnaut Danjuma33%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Villarreal · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Georges Mikautadze33%
Juan Foyth0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Foyth67%
Santiago Mouriño67%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Carlos Romero33%
Renato Veiga33%
Gerard Moreno0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Georges Mikautadze0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Georges Mikautadze33%
Alberto Moleiro33%
Juan Foyth0%
Gerard Moreno0%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georges Mikautadze67%
Juan Foyth33%
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
EIB (24)
€15m
Valencia's squad is €199m less valuable than Villarreal's (€125m vs €325m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
MAL (11)
€26m
ALA (8)
€24m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
Valencia's attack is €84m less valuable than Villarreal's (€40m vs €124m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
EIB (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Valencia's midfield is €6m less valuable than Villarreal's (€46m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
Valencia's defence is €109m less valuable than Villarreal's (€39m vs €148m).
Spain: La Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Real Betis
Sevilla
Getafe
Eibar
Girona
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
Espanyol
Alaves
Levante
Athletic Club
Leganes
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Malaga