Valerenga’s recent five games show a win-draw-lose-lose-win pattern, and they just returned from a 7-2 victory over Christiania BK, suggesting a strong offensive burst at home. Molde, however, has been more defensive on the road, averaging only 0.6 goals scored and conceding 2.2 against similarly ranked opponents. The model therefore favours an away win, giving Molde a 40% chance, Valerenga 36%, and a draw 24%. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a fairly high-scoring affair, with the most probable total being three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.1% probability. Home side Valerenga typically scores 1.92 and concedes 1.42 at home against similar teams, while Molde, on the road, scores 0.6 and concedes 2.2 against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.2%) with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%) with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%) with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%) with an 8% edge, Under 6.5 (95.2%) with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.0%) with a 6% edge, Away under 3.5 goals (92.4%) with a 7% edge, and Home under 3.5 goals (91.1%) with a 4% edge.
Results analysis
Valerenga’s recent slump of LWDLL is starkly contrasted by Molde’s two-game winning streak, yet the match finished 3-4 in favour of the visitors, confirming the model’s pick of an away win with a 39% probability. The total of seven goals far exceeded the forecasted 3.4 and the most likely 3-goal outcome. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 7.5 hit at 98.2%, Under 6.5 missed at 95.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals missed at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals missed at 97.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.3%, Away under 3.5 goals missed at 92.4%, and Home under 3.5 goals hit at 91.1%. The model’s call was correct, but many of its other predictions fell short.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valerenga win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.69
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.80
1xBet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.92
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.20
Betfair
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Dafabet
4.00
Molde win✓ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.25
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.50
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Dafabet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.27
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valerenga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
2.00
1.80
1.40
1.80
2.60
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
2.33
1.33
1.33
2.00
3.33
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.91
1.92
1.42
1.10
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
2.00
-
-
5.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Molde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.60
2.40
1.40
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.60
2.50
1.30
0.60
2.20
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
1.60
2.20
1.60
1.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
@ 1.08-0.3%
Under 1.5
13.9%
@ 6.88+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Pinnacle
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.8%
@ 1.33-4.5%
Under 2.5
34.2%
@ 3.14+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.21
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.9%
@ 1.85-6.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
@ 1.92+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.86
Under
Betfair
2.00
SBO
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.6%
@ 1.31-2.9%
No
32.4%
@ 3.14+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.33
No
1xBet
3.32
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 8.68+5.4%
1-2
8.4%@ 9.27+3.5%
2-1
8.0%@ 10.22+3.5%
2-2
6.9%@ 9.64+2.2%
0-2
5.1%@ 15.66+2.2%
0-1
4.9%@ 14.71+1.8%
1-3
4.9%@ 13.52+1.5%
1-0
4.6%@ 16.39+1.8%
Valerenga goals ↓
Molde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.9%
5.1%
2.9%
1.3%
1
4.6%
11%
8.4%
4.9%
2.1%
2
4.6%
8.0%
6.9%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.5%
4.4%
3.8%
2.2%
1.0%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valerenga goals (down), columns = Molde goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.44
Viking
2.39
Tromso
1.94
Molde
1.67
Fredrikstad
1.44
Lillestrom
1.44
Brann
1.44
Rosenborg
1.33
Ham-Kam
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Valerenga
1.17
KFUM Oslo
1.06
Sandefjord
1.06
Kristiansund BK
0.89
Aalesund
0.83
Start
0.72
Valerenga is 0.50 points worse than Molde in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.61
Viking
2.33
Molde
2.00
Brann
2.00
Tromso
1.89
Valerenga
1.72
Aalesund
1.56
Rosenborg
1.50
Ham-Kam
1.44
Lillestrom
1.33
Fredrikstad
1.22
KFUM Oslo
1.11
Start
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.11
Kristiansund BK
0.94
Sandefjord
0.83
Valerenga is 0.28 goals worse than Molde in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.78
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Sandefjord
1.28
Lillestrom
1.39
Rosenborg
1.44
Brann
1.50
Fredrikstad
1.56
Molde
1.61
Kristiansund BK
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.72
Ham-Kam
1.78
Valerenga
2.11
Start
2.17
Aalesund
2.39
Valerenga is 0.50 goals worse than Molde in terms of goals conceded per game (2.11 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
64%
Brann
59%
Molde
58%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
50%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Ham-Kam
48%
Fredrikstad
47%
KFUM Oslo
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Valerenga is 9.4 percentage points worse than Molde in terms of average possession (49% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Valerenga
For 6.3 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 0.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Molde
For 6.3 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valerenga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
12.2
11.3
3.4
3.6
3.3
24.2
23.7
24.7
vs Stronger (9)
12.9
13.8
11.8
4.2
4.4
4.0
24.8
22.6
27.5
vs Similar (37)
11.5
11.5
11.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
24.0
23.9
24.1
vs Weaker (4)
10.5
17.0
4.0
2.2
4.0
1.7
24.0
24.0
24.0
% over line
70%
78%
61%
50%
48%
52%
63%
57%
70%
% under line
30%
22%
39%
50%
52%
48%
37%
43%
30%
This opponent (Molde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.2
3.5
3.4
3.6
22.8
23.6
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
9.8
9.6
10.1
4.3
3.8
4.9
24.2
25.1
23.2
vs Weaker (27)
10.3
10.3
10.3
2.9
3.0
2.7
21.4
21.9
21.0
% over line
51%
52%
50%
48%
52%
44%
56%
61%
50%
% under line
49%
48%
50%
52%
48%
56%
44%
39%
50%
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
12.0
Aalesund
11.8
Viking
11.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.3
Rosenborg
11.2
Brann
11.0
Sandefjord
10.9
Bodo/Glimt
10.8
Lillestrom
10.5
Ham-Kam
10.3
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Molde
10.2
Fredrikstad
10.0
Start
8.9
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Tromso
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Molde
4.2
Viking
4.2
Brann
4.2
Lillestrom
4.1
Rosenborg
4.0
Valerenga
3.9
Start
3.8
Sandefjord
3.7
Kristiansund BK
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Tromso
3.3
Aalesund
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.2
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.2
Viking
24.7
Rosenborg
24.5
Valerenga
24.0
Tromso
23.9
Brann
23.9
Start
23.6
Molde
23.3
Ham-Kam
23.1
Lillestrom
22.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.6
Kristiansund BK
21.9
KFUM Oslo
21.7
Aalesund
21.6
Fredrikstad
21.1
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
70.8%
@ 1.39+4.8%
Under 9.5
29.2%
@ 2.70-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Marathonbet
2.88
Unibet
2.75
Betano
2.70
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.52
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.4%
Under 21.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valerenga or Draw✗ Miss
64.6%
Avg Implied 58.6% · @ 1.59
Edge
+6.0%
36%
25%
39%
covers Valerenga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
SBO
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Valerenga or Molde✓ Hit
74.8%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.4%
36%
25%
39%
covers Valerenga + Molde
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Molde✓ Hit
60.6%
Avg Implied 65.2% · @ 1.43
Edge
-4.6%
36%
25%
39%
covers Draw + Molde
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.53
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valerenga over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.3%
@ 1.14+0.1%
Under
18.7%
@ 4.93-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Valerenga over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
49.9%
@ 1.76-3.1%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.99+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Valerenga over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
23.6%
@ 3.41-3.7%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.28+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.68
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Under
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Valerenga over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 7.41-3.6%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.06+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
Superbet
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Molde over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.4%
@ 1.11-4.1%
Under
20.6%
@ 5.63+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Betano
5.60
Molde over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 1.63-10.4%
Under
53.1%
@ 2.18+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.28
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Molde over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.2%
@ 2.97-10.2%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.36+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.40
Superbet
3.15
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
Unibet
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Molde over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
7.6%
@ 6.36-7.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.09+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valerenga, so a minus line means Valerenga give that many goals of a start and Molde receive them. At -1, Valerenga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valerenga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valerenga)Actual: Molde
Valerenga -2
8.6%
@ 8.99-1.2%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 6.88-0.8%
Molde +2
79.3%
@ 1.15+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Valerenga)Actual: Molde
Valerenga -1
20.7%
@ 4.76+1.8%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 4.93+0.5%
Molde +1
60.6%
@ 1.43-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.40
Away
Unibet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Handicap +1 (Valerenga)Actual: Draw
Valerenga +1
64.6%
@ 1.60+8.6%
Draw +1
17.6%
@ 4.40-2.7%
Molde -1
17.8%
@ 3.77-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Away
Superbet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Handicap +2 (Valerenga)Actual: Valerenga
Valerenga +2
82.2%
@ 1.22+8.3%
Draw +2
10.8%
@ 6.35-3.4%
Molde -2
7.0%
@ 7.52-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Draw
Marathonbet
6.65
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valerenga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.60
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.95
0.92
0.58
0.50
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Molde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.73
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.73
1.40
0.60
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.18-3.9%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 4.38+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.6%
@ 1.91-8.2%
Under 1.5
59.4%
@ 1.82+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
SBO
1.96
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Under
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 3.88-9.1%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.22+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
Marathonbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valerenga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.1%
@ 1.72-2.1%
Under
47.9%
@ 2.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Valerenga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
15.5%
@ 4.49-5.1%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.17+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Valerenga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.2%
@ 11.67-5.8%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Molde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.3%
@ 1.62-11.2%
Under
53.7%
@ 2.18+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.26
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Molde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.9%
@ 4.00-9.2%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.20+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Molde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.4%
@ 10.50-6.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valerenga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.07
0.93
0.80
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.95
1.00
0.83
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
-
-
3.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Molde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.40
0.67
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.73
1.70
0.50
0.00
1.20
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
83.0%
@ 1.11-1.9%
Under 0.5
17.0%
@ 6.19+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.80
Bet365
6.50
Betano
6.20
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.3%
@ 1.53-11.6%
Under 1.5
50.7%
@ 2.38+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
888Sport
1.57
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.6%
@ 2.65-11.7%
Under 2.5
76.4%
@ 1.44+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
1xBet
2.59
Under
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valerenga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.2%
@ 1.49-8.0%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.45+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.48
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Valerenga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.0%
@ 3.31-7.0%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.28+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Valerenga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.32-6.4%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Molde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.5%
@ 1.41-9.5%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.73+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.82
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.52
Molde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 2.91-13.4%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.36+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
2.93
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.31
Molde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 7.12-9.0%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.06+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
-
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.2%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
91.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.8%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
86.1%
1.08
888Sport
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+9.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+9.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.17
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.11
888Sport
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
-1.9%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
82.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.36
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.31
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.7%
1.22
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.11
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
+10.2%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
77.1%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.44
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
76.4%
1.28
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.8%
1.23
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
70.8%
1.39
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.32
+4.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valerenga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lucas Haren41%
Carl Lange33%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Filip Thorvaldsen17%
Elias Sørensen10%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Henrik Bjørdal6%
Ivan Näsberg6%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Kolbeinn Finnsson0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Ambina Fidèle Brice0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Ole Christian Saeter0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aaron Kiil Olsen31%
Kolbeinn Finnsson29%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Ambina Fidèle Brice21%
Ivan Näsberg19%
Carl Lange17%
Ole Christian Saeter17%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad14%
Sebastian Jarl14%
Henrik Bjørdal12%
Hakon Sjatil12%
Magnus Westergaard11%
Kevin Tshiembe10%
Elias Sørensen10%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Lucas Haren6%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Petter Strand0%
Mohamed Ofkir0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kolbeinn Finnsson29%
Henrik Bjørdal25%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Ole Christian Saeter17%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Filip Thorvaldsen8%
Ambina Fidèle Brice7%
Lucas Haren6%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Carl Lange6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Ivan Näsberg0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Grundetjern33%
Filip Thorvaldsen25%
Elias Sørensen20%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Henrik Bjørdal12%
Lucas Haren12%
Carl Lange11%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Kolbeinn Finnsson0%
Ivan Näsberg0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Ambina Fidèle Brice0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Ole Christian Saeter0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
Gabriel Rajkovic0%
Molde
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Eirik Hestad50%
Emil Breivik33%
Daniel Daga33%
Seydina Mohamed Diop33%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen27%
Sondre Milian Granaas19%
Jalal Abdullai17%
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter15%
Trent Kone Doherty14%
Martin Linnes8%
Vebjørn Hoff8%
Caleb Zady Sery8%
Samukelo Kabini7%
Jacob Christensen0%
Mats Møller Dæhli0%
Birk Risa0%
Halldor Stenevik0%
Eirik Haugan0%
Mads Juhl Kikkenborg0%
Albert Posiadała0%
Isak Helstad Amundsen0%
Mathias Løvik0%
Blerton Isufi0%
Sivert Sira Hansen0%
Viktor Bender0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Løvik60%
Eirik Hestad44%
Sondre Milian Granaas25%
Samukelo Kabini21%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen18%
Emil Breivik17%
Isak Helstad Amundsen17%
Jalal Abdullai17%
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter15%
Albert Posiadała14%
Mats Møller Dæhli11%
Sivert Sira Hansen11%
Viktor Bender11%
Martin Linnes8%
Halldor Stenevik8%
Birk Risa6%
Jacob Christensen0%
Caleb Zady Sery0%
Vebjørn Hoff0%
Eirik Haugan0%
Mads Juhl Kikkenborg0%
Trent Kone Doherty0%
Blerton Isufi0%
Daniel Daga0%
Seydina Mohamed Diop0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emil Breivik28%
Mads Juhl Kikkenborg25%
Sondre Milian Granaas19%
Jalal Abdullai17%
Eirik Hestad12%
Sivert Sira Hansen11%
Viktor Bender11%
Halldor Stenevik8%
Caleb Zady Sery8%
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter8%
Albert Posiadała7%
Trent Kone Doherty7%
Samukelo Kabini7%
Martin Linnes0%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen0%
Jacob Christensen0%
Mats Møller Dæhli0%
Birk Risa0%
Vebjørn Hoff0%
Eirik Haugan0%
Isak Helstad Amundsen0%
Mathias Løvik0%
Blerton Isufi0%
Daniel Daga0%
Seydina Mohamed Diop0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jalal Abdullai33%
Daniel Daga33%
Emil Breivik28%
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter23%
Sondre Milian Granaas19%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen18%
Eirik Hestad12%
Trent Kone Doherty7%
Martin Linnes0%
Jacob Christensen0%
Caleb Zady Sery0%
Mats Møller Dæhli0%
Birk Risa0%
Vebjørn Hoff0%
Halldor Stenevik0%
Eirik Haugan0%
Mads Juhl Kikkenborg0%
Albert Posiadała0%
Isak Helstad Amundsen0%
Mathias Løvik0%
Samukelo Kabini0%
Blerton Isufi0%
Sivert Sira Hansen0%
Seydina Mohamed Diop0%
Viktor Bender0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (27)
€47m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (25)
€27m
ROS (23)
€23m
S0F (24)
€16m
VAL (22)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (23)
€12m
HAM (24)
€10m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Valerenga's squad is €19m less valuable than Molde's (€16m vs €35m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (10)
€11m
ROS (8)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
AAL (7)
€5m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
SAN (8)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
HAM (10)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Valerenga's attack is €7m less valuable than Molde's (€6m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
HAM (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Valerenga's midfield is €2m less valuable than Molde's (€5m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
VIK (12)
€15m
MOL (11)
€15m
ROS (11)
€9m
BRA (11)
€9m
TRO (11)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
VAL (9)
€5m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
HAM (8)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
Valerenga's defence is €9m less valuable than Molde's (€5m vs €15m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Brann
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Sandefjord
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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