Valletta FC are tipped to win, with a 51 % chance of triumph, a 27 % draw probability and a 21 % chance for Balzan FC. The model expects 2.6 goals, most likely a single total of 2 goals at 26 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13 % chance. Valletta, in a 2-game winning streak, scored 3-0 against Gzira United and will be defending at home, while Balzan, coming off a 1-2 loss to Mosta, will struggle away against a stronger side, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3 %), Under 5.5 (95.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.5 %), Home +2 handicap (92.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.9 %) and Under 4.5 (87.9 %). The model’s selection favours a home win, with the most likely score 1-1.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valletta FC win
49.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC win
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valletta FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.29
1.00
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.23
0.83
1.29
1.00
1.15
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Balzan FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.00
2.27
1.07
1.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.95
1.14
2.10
1.30
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.62
2.60
0.60
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.0%
Valletta FC goals ↓
Balzan FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
6.3%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.5%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.9%
5.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valletta FC goals (down), columns = Balzan FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Valletta FC is 0.29 points better than Balzan FC in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Valletta FC is 0.02 goals better than Balzan FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Valletta FC is 0.53 goals better than Balzan FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valletta FC or Draw
76.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
27%
23%
covers Valletta FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC or Balzan FC
72.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
27%
23%
covers Valletta FC + Balzan FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Balzan FC
50.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Balzan FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valletta FC, so a minus line means Valletta FC give that many goals of a start and Balzan FC receive them. At -1, Valletta FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valletta FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valletta FC)
Valletta FC -2
11.0%
Draw -2
15.4%
Balzan FC +2
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Valletta FC)
Valletta FC -1
26.4%
Draw -1
22.9%
Balzan FC +1
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Valletta FC)
Valletta FC +1
76.8%
Draw +1
14.3%
Balzan FC -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Valletta FC)
Valletta FC +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.4%
Balzan FC -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valletta FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.30
0.41
0.47
0.31
0.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.30
0.41
0.47
0.31
0.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Balzan FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.12
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.9%
Under 0.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.0%
Under 1.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
Under 2.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valletta FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.53
0.85
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.53
0.85
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Balzan FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.60
1.47
0.67
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.64
1.50
0.80
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.1%
Under 1.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.4%
Under
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Valletta FC's squad is €3m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Valletta FC and Balzan FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Valletta FC's midfield is €1m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Valletta FC's defence is €1m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€2m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United