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Valletta FC vs Mosta Result & Analysis

Date: 24/09/2025
Time: 19:00
Final 4-1
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Vs
53%
27%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valletta FC win✓ Hit
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W21W30W30W00D11D31W20W11DH·TAR01/03A·MGA09/03H·PIE30/03A·SAN05/04H·MAR12/04H·BIR16/08A·HAM31/08H·MAR12/09A·FLO16/09A·SLI21/09← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.070.532.530.401.600.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.860.522.560.221.330.75
vs Weaker (9)2.560.562.500.672.670.33
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L01L03L14L13L10W02L22D02LH·MAR04/04H·HAM12/04A·BIR19/04A·FLO27/04H·SLI30/04A·MAR17/08A·SLI22/08A·HAM13/09H·HIB17/09A·BIR21/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.701.331.500.941.83
vs Stronger (11)0.821.820.332.331.001.62
vs Similar (19)1.261.631.671.220.902.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.4%
Under 2.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.7%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
6.2%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.2%
Valletta FC goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
09.5%6.2%3.2%1.0%0.2%
112%13%5.2%1.5%0.3%
211%9.5%4.2%1.2%0.3%
35.7%5.1%2.2%0.7%0.1%
42.3%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valletta FC goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Valletta FC is 0.71 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Valletta FC is 0.15 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Valletta FC is 0.99 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valletta FCValletta FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W20W10W20W00D11D00D00D00DH·TAR01/03A·MGA09/03H·PIE30/03A·SAN05/04H·MAR12/04H·BIR16/08A·HAM31/08H·MAR12/09A·FLO16/09A·SLI21/09← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.231.270.130.800.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.950.191.440.000.580.33
vs Weaker (9)1.220.331.000.331.670.33
Clean sheet %83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L01L01L02L11D00D00D11D01LH·MAR04/04H·HAM12/04A·BIR19/04A·FLO27/04H·SLI30/04A·MAR17/08A·SLI22/08A·HAM13/09H·HIB17/09A·BIR21/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.700.330.750.440.67
vs Stronger (11)0.360.640.001.330.500.38
vs Similar (19)0.420.740.440.560.400.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valletta FCValletta FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L01L20W10W00D00D31W20W11DH·TAR01/03A·MGA09/03H·PIE30/03A·SAN05/04H·MAR12/04H·BIR16/08A·HAM31/08H·MAR12/09A·FLO16/09A·SLI21/09← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.301.270.270.800.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.900.331.110.220.750.42
vs Weaker (9)1.330.221.500.331.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D02L12L02L10W02L11D01LH·MAR04/04H·HAM12/04A·BIR19/04A·FLO27/04H·SLI30/04A·MAR17/08A·SLI22/08A·HAM13/09H·HIB17/09A·BIR21/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.001.000.750.501.17
vs Stronger (11)0.451.180.331.000.501.25
vs Similar (19)0.840.891.220.670.501.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Valletta FC's squad is €1m more valuable than Mosta's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Valletta FC and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Valletta FC and Mosta have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Valletta FC and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
VF wins
2
Draws
2
MOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valletta FC vs Mosta · H/A from VF
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24AMosta Vs VF1-0
30/09/23HVF Vs Mosta1-1
19/02/23HVF Vs Mosta0-0
15/10/22AMosta Vs VF3-1

Valletta FCValletta FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs VF1-1
16/09/25AFloriana Vs VF0-2
12/09/25HVF Vs Marsaxlokk3-1
31/08/25AHamrun Spartans Vs VF1-1
16/08/25HVF Vs Birkirkara0-0
12/04/25HVF Vs Marsa3-0
05/04/25ASanta Lucía Vs VF0-3
30/03/25HVF Vs Pietà Hotspurs2-1
09/03/25AMgarr United Vs VF1-2
01/03/25HVF Vs Tarxien Rainbows3-0

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25ABirkirkara Vs MOS2-0
17/09/25HMOS Vs Hibernians2-2
13/09/25AHamrun Spartans Vs MOS2-0
22/08/25ASliema Wanderers Vs MOS0-1
17/08/25AMarsaxlokk Vs MOS3-1
30/04/25HMOS Vs Sliema Wanderers1-4
27/04/25AFloriana Vs MOS3-0
19/04/25ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-0
12/04/25HMOS Vs Hamrun Spartans0-2
04/04/25HMOS Vs Marsaxlokk0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valletta FC
Valletta FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.82
HomeWWWDW1.80
AwayWWDWD1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%52%52%
AVG goals2.362.602.12
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %14%16%12%
Scored1.581.761.40
Conceded0.780.840.72
BTTS38%44%32%
Clean Sheet44%40%48%
Corners---
Cards---
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.22
HomeWLLLD1.55
AwayLLWLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%45%29%
AVG goals2.542.412.64
Over 1.5 %72%64%79%
Over 2.5 %46%36%54%
Over 3.5 %28%32%25%
Scored1.001.090.93
Conceded1.541.321.71
BTTS40%32%46%
Clean Sheet24%36%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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