This highly anticipated matchup between Valletta FC and Zabbar St. Patrick in the Malta Premier League promises to be a closely contested affair. Valletta FC is coming off a defeat against Hamrun Spartans, while Zabbar St. Patrick is riding high after a convincing 2-0 win over Tarxien Rainbows.
Valletta FC is the favourite to win at home, with a 41% probability of securing all three points. However, Zabbar St. Patrick is not far behind, with a 28% chance of taking the spoils. The draw is also a viable option, with a 30% probability.
The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability.
Valletta FC has been scoring an average of 2 goals per game at home, while conceding just 0.8. In contrast, Zabbar St. Patrick has been struggling to find the back of the net away from home, scoring an average of just 1 goal per game, while conceding 0.5.
The model's selection is the Home win, with the Under 3.5 model's selection being the most popular choice, with a 79.2% probability.
Valletta FC's win extends their run, coming off a win after beating Zabbar St. Patrick 4-2. The final score was well clear of the predicted 2.3 total goals, with the actual result being a home win for the model's selection. The model correctly picked the home win, which had a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection was the favourite, as expected.
The model's selection, Home win, was correct. The model's other selection, Under 3.5, had a 79.2% probability but missed, as the actual score was 4-2.
Valletta FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.80 | 1.31 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.17 | 0.80 | 1.31 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Zabbar St. Patrick| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.28 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.44 | 1.24 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Zabbar St. Patrick goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Valletta FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+53pp vs league) | |||||
Zabbar St. Patrick| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.68 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Valletta FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.94 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.94 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Zabbar St. Patrick| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 79.2% | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | +3.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Home or Draw | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 0-2 |
Valletta FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-1 |
Zabbar St. Patrick| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 5-3 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Floriana | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 2 | Valletta FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Mosta | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | - |
| 4 | Marsaxlokk | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | Birkirkara | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | - |
| 6 | Balzan FC | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 7 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Hibernians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1.8 | 75% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Sliema Wanderers | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 10 | Hamrun Spartans | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Birzebbuga | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 12 | Gzira United | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.2 | - |