Valmiera / BSS are poised to dominate in front of home fans, with a 54% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a JFK Ventspils win. The model favours a home win, projecting an average of 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability. Valmiera’s home form is impressive, scoring 3.3 goals per game and conceding only 0.8 against weaker opposition, while JFK Ventspils’ away performance remains modest. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7%, Under 6.5 at 95.8%, Home +2 handicap at 91.0%, Under 5.5 at 90.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 86.5% and Home over 0.5 goals at 85.9%. Valmiera’s recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 6-1 triumph over Rēzekne FA, underscores their attacking potency, whereas JFK Ventspils return from a draw in a 1-1 stalemate with Riga FC II suggests a cautious approach.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valmiera / BSS win
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils win
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valmiera / BSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
1.10
2.62
1.12
2.79
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
3.56
1.00
3.30
0.80
3.88
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.47
1.24
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.25
1.71
1.14
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
1.28
1.30
1.30
1.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.0%
Under 2.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.4%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.1%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.4%
11%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.4%
6.4%
3.8%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.6%
3.1%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Valmiera / BSS is 2.60 points better than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Valmiera / BSS is 2.87 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Valmiera / BSS is 1.13 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valmiera / BSS or Draw
78.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS or JFK Ventspils
76.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Valmiera / BSS + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or JFK Ventspils
45.8%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Draw + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valmiera / BSS, so a minus line means Valmiera / BSS give that many goals of a start and JFK Ventspils receive them. At -1, Valmiera / BSS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valmiera / BSS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -2
15.6%
Draw -2
16.8%
JFK Ventspils +2
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -1
32.4%
Draw -1
21.8%
JFK Ventspils +1
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +1
78.1%
Draw +1
12.9%
JFK Ventspils -1
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +2
91.0%
Draw +2
6.2%
JFK Ventspils -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.57
1.44
0.50
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.90
0.30
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.41
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
0.56
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.19
0.62
1.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.40
0.50
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.76
0.82
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.83
0.70
0.90
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
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Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
Rēzekne FA