Valmiera / BSS and Mārupe are set to clash in the Latvia: 1. Liga, with the home side boasting a strong recent form. Valmiera / BSS is on a 4-game winning run, having defeated Smiltene 4-1 in their last outing. In contrast, Mārupe has struggled, suffering two straight defeats.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.4%. The home side has a strong home form, averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1 goal conceded against weaker opponents.
Mārupe's away form is less impressive, averaging 1 goal scored and 3 goals conceded against stronger opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 57%. The draw is a 23% possibility, while the away win is 20% likely. The model's selection for the total goals is Over 1.5, with a probability of 84.6%. Other suggested picks include the home win (57%), the draw (23%), and the away win (20%).
Results analysis
Valmiera / BSS extended their five-game winning streak with a 4-1 triumph over Mārūpe, confirming the model’s home win pick and its 57 % probability. The pre-match favourite, Home win, proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7 %, Under 7.5 at 98.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.8 %, Under 6.5 at 95.2 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.0 %, Away under 1.5 2H goals at 94.5 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.0 %. All picks settled in favour of the model’s predictions, underscoring its strong performance for this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valmiera / BSS win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.15
Edge
-21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.18
Dafabet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Draw✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 13.4% · @ 6.70
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Pinnacle
6.87
Dafabet
6.60
Mārupe win✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied 8.3% · @ 10.85
Edge
+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
13.00
1xBet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
William Hil
12.00
Dafabet
11.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valmiera / BSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.07
2.50
1.06
2.43
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.09
1.50
1.33
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
3.38
1.00
3.22
0.78
3.57
1.29
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mārupe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.20
1.33
1.13
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.81
1.14
1.57
1.44
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
1.07
1.25
1.12
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
@ 1.07-2.9%
Under 1.5
15.4%
@ 7.50+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.07
Under
1xBet
7.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.2%
@ 1.27-8.8%
Under 2.5
36.8%
@ 3.27+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Superbet
3.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.1%
@ 1.69-13.1%
Under 3.5
58.9%
@ 1.99+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.6%
@ 1.73+8.4%
No
38.4%
@ 1.96-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
William Hil
1.67
No
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 12.67+7.1%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.75+5.1%
2-0
8.3%@ 7.67+2.9%
1-0
7.0%@ 11.07+3.3%
3-1
6.8%@ 9.07+2.2%
2-2
5.8%@ 18.17+3.5%
3-0
5.8%@ 7.40+0.2%
1-2
5.6%@ 27.67+4.1%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
Mārupe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.6%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.0%
10%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.3%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.8%
6.8%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.0%
3.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = Mārupe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Valmiera / BSS is 2.14 points better than Mārupe in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Valmiera / BSS is 2.67 goals better than Mārupe in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Valmiera / BSS is 1.76 goals better than Mārupe in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 2.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valmiera / BSS or Draw✓ Hit
79.9%
Avg Implied 90.2% · @ 1.03
Edge
-10.3%
57%
23%
20%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
William Hil
1.03
Valmiera / BSS or Mārupe✓ Hit
77.2%
Avg Implied 87.2% · @ 1.06
Edge
-9.9%
57%
23%
20%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Mārupe
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Draw or Mārupe✗ Miss
42.9%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.08
Edge
+20.2%
57%
23%
20%
covers Draw + Mārupe
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
William Hil
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
3.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.5%
Under
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
61.5%
@ 1.20-15.0%
Under
38.5%
@ 3.90+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.20
Under
1xBet
3.90
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
34.4%
@ 1.55-24.7%
Under
65.6%
@ 2.24+24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
15.7%
@ 2.38-22.8%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.49+22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Mārupe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.3%
@ 1.67+14.8%
Under
30.7%
@ 2.00-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Mārupe over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 4.40+12.2%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.16-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Under
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Mārupe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 9.10+1.5%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.03-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
Mārupe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valmiera / BSS, so a minus line means Valmiera / BSS give that many goals of a start and Mārupe receive them. At -1, Valmiera / BSS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valmiera / BSS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Mārupe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mārupe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.53
0.33
0.47
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
0.29
0.36
0.38
0.38
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.16-2.2%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 4.70+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.20
William Hil
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.1%
@ 1.77-12.3%
Under 1.5
60.9%
@ 1.87+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betfair
1.75
Under
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.0%
@ 3.50-9.3%
Under 2.5
83.0%
@ 1.25+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
69.6%
@ 1.26-3.3%
Under
30.4%
@ 3.40+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.40
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
25.3%
@ 2.21-16.1%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.56+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 4.70-13.5%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.14+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.14
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.6%
@ 2.82-6.6%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.34+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.82
Under
1xBet
1.34
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 9.10-5.1%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.19
0.56
1.21
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.55
0.83
0.67
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.56
0.50
1.33
0.44
1.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mārupe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.12
0.86
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.71
0.88
0.75
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.7%
Under 0.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.3%
Under 1.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.8%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.6%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
-
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
William Hil
1.03
-10.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.1%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betfair
1.13
-
-
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
-9.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.0%
1.42
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
-
+13.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.56
-
-
-
+16.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
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Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA