Valmiera / BSS are heading into a tough away trip to Metta / LU, and the model’s clear favourite is an away win, reflected in a 62% probability for Metta / LU versus 17% for Valmiera / BSS and 21% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 3.3, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Metta / LU, carrying a 9.8% chance. Valmiera / BSS have been prolific at home, scoring an average of 3.3 goals and conceding only 0.8 against weaker opponents, but Metta / LU have been solid on the road, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.92 against stronger teams. The model’s selections highlight a very low-scoring game: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Under 7.5 total at 98.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.9%, Under 6.5 total at 94.9%, Away +2 handicap at 93.5%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.7%. Valmiera / BSS are on a five-game winning streak, last winning 4-1 over Mārūpe, while Metta / LU are on a three-game winning run, last crushing Smiltene 6-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valmiera / BSS win
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU win
61.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valmiera / BSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
1.10
2.62
1.12
2.79
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
3.56
1.00
3.30
0.80
3.88
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
4.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.77
2.50
1.71
1.75
1.81
vs Stronger (23)
1.96
1.87
2.18
1.82
1.75
1.92
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
9.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.8%
0-2
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-3
7.2%
0-3
6.6%
2-2
5.4%
2-1
4.9%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
Metta / LU goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
7.3%
9.0%
6.6%
3.6%
1
3.2%
9.8%
9.8%
7.2%
4.0%
2
2.2%
4.9%
5.4%
3.9%
2.2%
3
0.8%
1.8%
2.0%
1.4%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = Metta / LU goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Valmiera / BSS is 0.33 points better than Metta / LU in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Valmiera / BSS is 2.17 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 5.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Valmiera / BSS is 0.17 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valmiera / BSS or Draw
38.4%
Avg Implied -
17%
21%
62%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS or Metta / LU
78.5%
Avg Implied -
17%
21%
62%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Metta / LU
83.1%
Avg Implied -
17%
21%
62%
covers Draw + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5
Over
66.5%
Under
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5
Over
88.9%
Under
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 3.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valmiera / BSS, so a minus line means Valmiera / BSS give that many goals of a start and Metta / LU receive them. At -1, Valmiera / BSS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valmiera / BSS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -2
1.9%
Draw -2
4.6%
Metta / LU +2
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -1
6.5%
Draw -1
10.4%
Metta / LU +1
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +1
38.4%
Draw +1
21.9%
Metta / LU -1
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +2
60.3%
Draw +2
18.7%
Metta / LU -2
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.57
1.44
0.50
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.90
0.30
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.43
1.14
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
1.00
1.18
1.36
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.4%
Under 0.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.7%
Under 1.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
Under 2.5
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.19
0.62
1.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.40
0.50
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.57
1.31
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
1.13
0.87
1.00
0.45
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.0%
Under 0.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.7%
Under 1.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.5%
Under 2.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA