Valmiera / BSS are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 63 % chance to a home win. Their recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-1 victory over Mārūpe, underpins the high probability, especially as they play at home against a weaker opponent. The Riga Mariners, meanwhile, have a 18 % chance of victory and a 19 % chance of a draw, reflecting their away form of 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger teams.
The model expects an average of 4.1 goals, with the most likely total being 6 or more, a 23 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Valmiera / BSS, with an 8.5 % chance. Valmiera / BSS average 3.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while the Mariners average 2.5 scored and 1.5 conceded away.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (94.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.3 %), Home over 0.5 goals (93.0 %), Home +2 handicap (92.1 %), Over 1.5 (92.1 %), Under 6.5 (88.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (82.7 %), and Home or Draw (81.8 %).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valmiera / BSS win
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners win
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valmiera / BSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
1.10
2.62
1.12
2.79
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
3.56
1.00
3.30
0.80
3.88
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
1.27
2.88
1.25
2.93
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
2.57
1.43
2.62
1.38
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.17
3.17
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.1%
Under 1.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.4%
Under 2.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.3%
Under 3.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
71.3%
No
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.5%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
7.0%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
6.0%
3-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
5.0%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
Riga Mariners goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
1
3.8%
7.0%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
2
6.0%
8.5%
6.1%
2.9%
1.0%
3
5.3%
7.5%
5.4%
2.6%
0.9%
4
3.5%
5.0%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = Riga Mariners goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Valmiera / BSS is 0.40 points better than Riga Mariners in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Valmiera / BSS is 0.87 goals better than Riga Mariners in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Valmiera / BSS is 0.33 goals better than Riga Mariners in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valmiera / BSS or Draw
81.8%
Avg Implied -
63%
19%
18%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS or Riga Mariners
81.4%
Avg Implied -
63%
19%
18%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga Mariners
36.9%
Avg Implied -
63%
19%
18%
covers Draw + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5
Over
93.0%
Under
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valmiera / BSS, so a minus line means Valmiera / BSS give that many goals of a start and Riga Mariners receive them. At -1, Valmiera / BSS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valmiera / BSS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -2
25.3%
Draw -2
18.1%
Riga Mariners +2
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -1
43.4%
Draw -1
19.7%
Riga Mariners +1
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +1
81.8%
Draw +1
10.3%
Riga Mariners -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.2%
Riga Mariners -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.57
1.44
0.50
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.90
0.30
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.19
0.44
1.14
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.19
0.62
1.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.40
0.50
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
1.69
0.81
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
1.50
0.93
1.62
0.88
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.83
1.00
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.25
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA