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Valmiera / BSS vs Super Nova 2 Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/10/2026
Time: 11:00
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Vs
55%
24%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Super Nova 2
Super Nova 2
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Valmiera / BSS are set to dominate Super Nova 2, with the model picking a home win and a 3.2 expected total of goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 10.8% chance. Valmiera’s home form shows a prolific 3.3 goals per game and a solid 0.8 conceded average against weaker opposition, while Super Nova 2’s away record against stronger teams yields 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 55% home win, 24% draw, and 21% away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (95.7%), Home +2 handicap (91.3%), Under 5.5 (89.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.4%) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.8%). Valmiera’s recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 6-1 victory over Rēzekne FA, underpins the confidence in a high-scoring, home-favoured encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valmiera / BSS win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 win
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L32W33D23L30W30W21W41W41W61WH·FK 20/10H·FS 26/10A·BFC03/11H·TUK09/11A·SKA18/07H·RIG27/07H·RĪG01/08A·SMI08/08H·MĀR22/08A·RĒZ30/08← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.701.102.621.122.791.07
vs Stronger (2)1.001.502.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)1.501.201.401.601.600.80
vs Weaker (18)3.561.003.300.803.881.25
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D03L20W12L11D12LA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07A·JFK08/08A·MĀR15/08H·SKA23/08A·LEE29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.570.502.001.201.40
vs Stronger (5)1.001.600.502.001.331.33
vs Similar (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
5.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
Super Nova 2 goals →
01234
05.1%3.9%2.9%1.2%0.3%
17.3%11%5.8%2.3%0.7%
28.3%9.8%5.8%2.3%0.7%
35.5%6.5%3.9%1.5%0.5%
42.8%3.3%1.9%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = Super Nova 2 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Valmiera / BSS is 2.29 points better than Super Nova 2 in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Valmiera / BSS is 2.67 goals better than Super Nova 2 in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Valmiera / BSS is 0.90 goals better than Super Nova 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valmiera / BSS or Draw
78.7%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
21%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS or Super Nova 2
76.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
21%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Super Nova 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Super Nova 2
44.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
21%
covers Draw + Super Nova 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Valmiera / BSS, so a minus line means Valmiera / BSS give that many goals of a start and Super Nova 2 receive them. At -1, Valmiera / BSS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valmiera / BSS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -2
16.3%
Draw -2
17.1%
Super Nova 2 +2
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -1
33.4%
Draw -1
21.8%
Super Nova 2 +1
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +1
78.7%
Draw +1
12.6%
Super Nova 2 -1
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +2
91.3%
Draw +2
6.0%
Super Nova 2 -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D11D10W10W21W30W20W11DH·FK 20/10H·FS 26/10A·BFC03/11H·TUK09/11A·SKA18/07H·RIG27/07H·RĪG01/08A·SMI08/08H·MĀR22/08A·RĒZ30/08← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.571.440.501.290.64
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.900.600.800.801.000.40
vs Weaker (18)1.780.501.900.301.620.75
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W01L10W10W11D12LA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07A·JFK08/08A·MĀR15/08H·SKA23/08A·LEE29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.860.501.001.000.80
vs Stronger (5)0.800.800.501.001.000.67
vs Similar (2)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L31W22D12L20W20W00D11D21W50WH·FK 20/10H·FS 26/10A·BFC03/11H·TUK09/11A·SKA18/07H·RIG27/07H·RĪG01/08A·SMI08/08H·MĀR22/08A·RĒZ30/08← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.531.190.621.500.43
vs Stronger (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (10)0.600.600.600.800.600.40
vs Weaker (18)1.780.501.400.502.250.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L10W02L00D00DA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07A·JFK08/08A·MĀR15/08H·SKA23/08A·LEE29/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.140.710.001.000.200.60
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.001.000.330.67
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 6.595.7%-------
Home +2 handicap91.3%-------
Under 5.589.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals86.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals85.8%-------
Over 1.583.6%-------
Home or Draw78.7%-------
Home +1 handicap78.7%-------
Under 4.578.4%-------
Home or Away76.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
V/B wins
0
Draws
0
SN2 wins

Head-to-head

Valmiera / BSS vs Super Nova 2 · H/A from V/B
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ARēzekne FA Vs V/B1-6
22/08/26HV/B Vs Mārupe4-1
08/08/26ASmiltene Vs V/B1-4
01/08/26HV/B Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
27/07/26HV/B Vs Riga FC II3-0
18/07/26ASkanste Vs V/B0-3
09/11/24HV/B Vs Tukums2-3
03/11/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B3-3
26/10/24HV/B Vs FS Jelgava3-2
20/10/24HV/B Vs FK Liepaja0-1

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ALeevon / PPK Vs SN22-1
23/08/26HSN2 Vs Skanste1-1
15/08/26AMārupe Vs SN22-1
08/08/26AJFK Ventspils Vs SN20-2
31/07/26HSN2 Vs Riga Mariners0-3
25/07/26AJDFS Alberts Vs SN21-1
19/07/26ARiga FC II Vs SN22-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.82
HomeWLWWW1.71
AwayWDWWW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%50%58%
AVG goals3.203.173.23
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %62%67%58%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored2.122.082.15
Conceded1.081.081.08
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet36%25%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Super Nova 2
Super Nova 2
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.71
HomeLD0.50
AwayLDWLL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%0%20%
AVG goals2.572.502.60
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %57%50%60%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored1.000.501.20
Conceded1.572.001.40
BTTS71%50%80%
Clean Sheet14%0%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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