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Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums II Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/10/2026
Time: 11:00
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Vs
87%
8%
5%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Valmiera / BSS are the clear favourites, with the model giving them an 87% chance of winning, 8% for a draw and 5% for Tukums II. The prediction that the match will end in a home win is reinforced by Valmiera’s dominant 5-game winning streak, highlighted by a 6-1 triumph over Rēzekne FA, while Tukums II are still recovering from two consecutive defeats and a 2-6 loss to Skanste. The expected total goals is 5.0, and the most likely total is 6 +, with a 37% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 3-0 for Valmiera, with a 7.4% chance. Valmiera’s home form shows an average of 3.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Tukums II average 1.2 scored and 3.2 conceded away against stronger sides. Suggested picks include Home +2 handicap at 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 98.1%, Over 1.5 at 96.1%, Home or Draw at 95.5%, Home +1 handicap at 95.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.1% and Home or Away at 91.7%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valmiera / BSS win
87.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
8.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II win
4.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L32W33D23L30W30W21W41W41W61WH·FK 20/10H·FS 26/10A·BFC03/11H·TUK09/11A·SKA18/07H·RIG27/07H·RĪG01/08A·SMI08/08H·MĀR22/08A·RĒZ30/08← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.701.102.621.122.791.07
vs Stronger (2)1.001.502.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)1.501.201.401.601.600.80
vs Weaker (18)3.561.003.300.803.881.25
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-930W22D34L21W26L20W09L11D24L26LA·SMI05/10H·RĪG20/10A·JDF25/10H·RIG01/11A·SKA08/11H·RĪG20/07A·MET27/07H·JDF03/08A·RIG09/08A·SKA30/08
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
3.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.472.631.732.071.203.20
vs Stronger (30)1.472.631.732.071.203.20
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

9%18%27%37%1%03%19%215%318%418%537%6+
The model estimates around 5.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (37%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
96.1%
Under 1.5
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
87.2%
Under 2.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
72.9%
Under 3.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
7.4%
4-1
7.3%
5-0
5.9%
5-1
5.8%
2-0
5.6%
2-1
5.6%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
Tukums II goals →
01234
01.0%0.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%
12.5%3.1%1.4%0.5%0.1%
25.6%5.6%2.8%0.9%0.2%
37.4%7.4%3.7%1.2%0.3%
47.4%7.3%3.6%1.2%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = Tukums II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Valmiera / BSS is 2.20 points better than Tukums II in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Valmiera / BSS is 2.27 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 1.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Valmiera / BSS is 3.33 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 4.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valmiera / BSS or Draw
95.5%
Avg Implied -
87%
8%
5%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS or Tukums II
91.7%
Avg Implied -
87%
8%
5%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tukums II
12.8%
Avg Implied -
87%
8%
5%
covers Draw + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5
Over
98.1%
Under
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5
Over
90.6%
Under
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Valmiera / BSS, so a minus line means Valmiera / BSS give that many goals of a start and Tukums II receive them. At -1, Valmiera / BSS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valmiera / BSS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -2
56.7%
Draw -2
17.5%
Tukums II +2
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -1
74.2%
Draw -1
13.0%
Tukums II +1
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +1
95.5%
Draw +1
3.1%
Tukums II -1
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.1%
Tukums II -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D11D10W10W21W30W20W11DH·FK 20/10H·FS 26/10A·BFC03/11H·TUK09/11A·SKA18/07H·RIG27/07H·RĪG01/08A·SMI08/08H·MĀR22/08A·RĒZ30/08← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.571.440.501.290.64
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.900.600.800.801.000.40
vs Weaker (18)1.780.501.900.301.620.75
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W01L22D11D23L00D06L01L12L25LA·SMI05/10H·RĪG20/10A·JDF25/10H·RIG01/11A·SKA08/11H·RĪG20/07A·MET27/07H·JDF03/08A·RIG09/08A·SKA30/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.230.800.800.671.67
vs Stronger (30)0.731.230.800.800.671.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L31W22D12L20W20W00D11D21W50WH·FK 20/10H·FS 26/10A·BFC03/11H·TUK09/11A·SKA18/07H·RIG27/07H·RĪG01/08A·SMI08/08H·MĀR22/08A·RĒZ30/08← Virsliga1. Liga →
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.531.190.621.500.43
vs Stronger (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (10)0.600.600.600.800.600.40
vs Weaker (18)1.780.501.400.502.250.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tukums IITukums II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W21W12L10W03L20W03L10W12L01LA·SMI05/10H·RĪG20/10A·JDF25/10H·RIG01/11A·SKA08/11H·RĪG20/07A·MET27/07H·JDF03/08A·RIG09/08A·SKA30/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.400.931.270.531.53
vs Stronger (30)0.731.400.931.270.531.53
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Home +2 handicap98.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals98.1%-------
Over 1.596.1%-------
Home or Draw95.5%-------
Home +1 handicap95.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.1%-------
Home or Away91.7%-------
Home over 1.5 goals90.6%-------
Under 7.587.3%-------
Home win87.2%-------
Over 2.587.2%-------
Under 6.576.9%-------
Home over 2.5 goals75.7%-------
Home -1 handicap74.2%-------
Away under 1.5 goals73.8%-------
Over 3.572.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
V/B wins
0
Draws
0
TI wins

Head-to-head

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums II · H/A from V/B
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ARēzekne FA Vs V/B1-6
22/08/26HV/B Vs Mārupe4-1
08/08/26ASmiltene Vs V/B1-4
01/08/26HV/B Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
27/07/26HV/B Vs Riga FC II3-0
18/07/26ASkanste Vs V/B0-3
09/11/24HV/B Vs Tukums2-3
03/11/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B3-3
26/10/24HV/B Vs FS Jelgava3-2
20/10/24HV/B Vs FK Liepaja0-1

Tukums IITukums II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ASkanste Vs TI6-2
09/08/26ARiga Mariners Vs TI4-2
03/08/26HTI Vs JDFS Alberts1-1
27/07/26AMetta / LU Vs TI9-0
20/07/26HTI Vs Rīgas FS II2-0
08/11/25ASkanste Vs TI6-2
01/11/25HTI Vs Riga FC II2-1
25/10/25AJDFS Alberts Vs TI4-3
20/10/25HTI Vs Rīgas FS II2-2
05/10/25ASmiltene Vs TI0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.82
HomeWLWWW1.71
AwayWDWWW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%50%58%
AVG goals3.203.173.23
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %62%67%58%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored2.122.082.15
Conceded1.081.081.08
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet36%25%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Tukums II
Tukums II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL0.78
HomeLDWWD1.00
AwayLLLLL0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals4.023.754.27
Over 1.5 %88%100%77%
Over 2.5 %74%79%69%
Over 3.5 %50%42%58%
Scored1.261.541.00
Conceded2.762.213.27
BTTS62%75%50%
Clean Sheet12%8%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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