Valmiera / BSS are the clear favourites, with the model giving them an 87% chance of winning, 8% for a draw and 5% for Tukums II. The prediction that the match will end in a home win is reinforced by Valmiera’s dominant 5-game winning streak, highlighted by a 6-1 triumph over Rēzekne FA, while Tukums II are still recovering from two consecutive defeats and a 2-6 loss to Skanste. The expected total goals is 5.0, and the most likely total is 6 +, with a 37% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 3-0 for Valmiera, with a 7.4% chance. Valmiera’s home form shows an average of 3.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Tukums II average 1.2 scored and 3.2 conceded away against stronger sides. Suggested picks include Home +2 handicap at 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 98.1%, Over 1.5 at 96.1%, Home or Draw at 95.5%, Home +1 handicap at 95.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.1% and Home or Away at 91.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valmiera / BSS win
87.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
8.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II win
4.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valmiera / BSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
1.10
2.62
1.12
2.79
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
3.56
1.00
3.30
0.80
3.88
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Stronger (30)
1.47
2.63
1.73
2.07
1.20
3.20
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (37%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
96.1%
Under 1.5
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
87.2%
Under 2.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
72.9%
Under 3.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
7.4%
4-1
7.3%
5-0
5.9%
5-1
5.8%
2-0
5.6%
2-1
5.6%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
Tukums II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
2.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
2
5.6%
5.6%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
3
7.4%
7.4%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
4
7.4%
7.3%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = Tukums II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Valmiera / BSS is 2.20 points better than Tukums II in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Valmiera / BSS is 2.27 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Valmiera / BSS is 3.33 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 4.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valmiera / BSS or Draw
95.5%
Avg Implied -
87%
8%
5%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS or Tukums II
91.7%
Avg Implied -
87%
8%
5%
covers Valmiera / BSS + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tukums II
12.8%
Avg Implied -
87%
8%
5%
covers Draw + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5
Over
98.1%
Under
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5
Over
90.6%
Under
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valmiera / BSS, so a minus line means Valmiera / BSS give that many goals of a start and Tukums II receive them. At -1, Valmiera / BSS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valmiera / BSS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -2
56.7%
Draw -2
17.5%
Tukums II +2
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS -1
74.2%
Draw -1
13.0%
Tukums II +1
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +1
95.5%
Draw +1
3.1%
Tukums II -1
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Valmiera / BSS)
Valmiera / BSS +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.1%
Tukums II -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.57
1.44
0.50
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.90
0.30
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.23
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valmiera / BSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.19
0.62
1.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.40
0.50
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 2.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -1 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →