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Valmiera II vs Progress / AFA Olaine Result & Analysis

Date: 01/10/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 4-1
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Vs
78%
13%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Valmiera II wināœ“ Hit
78.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
12.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine wināœ— Miss
9.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-812L50W04L32W23L43W50W01L50W82WA·TUK01/07H·RÄŖG18/07A·RĒZ23/07H·FS 31/07H·GRO07/08A·SAL20/08H·DIN28/08A·JDF02/09H·SMI10/09H·SKA18/09
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.681.324.780.892.701.70
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)5.001.205.171.334.751.00
vs Weaker (9)2.221.444.000.001.332.17
Clean sheet %42% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L31W11D11D23L30W21W20W21WH·RĒZ18/06A·FS 03/07H·GRO16/07A·SAL23/07H·DIN31/07H·JDF06/08A·SMI21/08H·SKA27/08H·TUK04/09A·SAL10/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.562.281.782.561.332.00
vs Stronger (3)1.672.002.001.001.502.50
vs Similar (10)1.602.301.673.171.501.00
vs Weaker (5)1.402.402.001.501.003.00
Clean sheet %11% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%15%23%30%1%04%111%217%319%417%530%6+
The model estimates around 4.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.6%
Under 1.5
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
83.2%
Under 2.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.6%
Under 3.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.4%
No
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.0%
2-1
7.1%
3-0
6.8%
4-1 āœ“
6.7%
2-0
6.0%
4-0
5.7%
3-2
4.7%
1-1
4.7%
Valmiera II goals ↓
Progress / AFA Olaine goals →
01234
01.5%0.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%
13.2%4.7%2.5%1.0%0.3%
26.0%7.1%4.2%1.7%0.5%
36.8%8.0%4.7%1.9%0.6%
45.7%6.7%4.0%1.6%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera II goals (down), columns = Progress / AFA Olaine goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
RÄ«gas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Salaspils
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo RÄ«ga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
Valmiera II is 1.04 points better than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.96).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
RÄ«gas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Skanste
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo RÄ«ga
0.65
Valmiera II is 2.00 goals better than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals scored per game (3.46 vs 1.46).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
RÄ«gas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo RÄ«ga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
Valmiera II is 1.35 goals better than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 2.77).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W01L32W12L13L30W01L30W41WA·TUK01/07H·RÄŖG18/07A·RĒZ23/07H·FS 31/07H·GRO07/08A·SAL20/08H·DIN28/08A·JDF02/09H·SMI10/09H·SKA18/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.792.670.561.401.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)2.700.902.830.832.501.00
vs Weaker (9)1.220.672.330.000.671.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D11D10W12L00D00D10W01LH·RĒZ18/06A·FS 03/07H·GRO16/07A·SAL23/07H·DIN31/07H·JDF06/08A·SMI21/08H·SKA27/08H·TUK04/09A·SAL10/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.561.110.441.220.671.00
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
vs Similar (10)0.301.100.331.500.250.50
vs Weaker (5)1.001.201.001.001.001.33
Clean sheet %39% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D30W03L00D11D30W20W00D20W41WA·TUK01/07H·RÄŖG18/07A·RĒZ23/07H·FS 31/07H·GRO07/08A·SAL20/08H·DIN28/08A·JDF02/09H·SMI10/09H·SKA18/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.680.532.110.331.300.70
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)2.300.302.330.502.250.00
vs Weaker (9)1.000.781.670.000.671.17
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L31W00D01L11D30W21W10W20WH·RĒZ18/06A·FS 03/07H·GRO16/07A·SAL23/07H·DIN31/07H·JDF06/08A·SMI21/08H·SKA27/08H·TUK04/09A·SAL10/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.171.331.330.671.00
vs Stronger (3)1.001.002.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (10)1.301.201.331.671.250.50
vs Weaker (5)0.401.201.000.500.001.67
Clean sheet %39% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.594.6%-------āœ“ Hit
Over 2.583.2%-------āœ“ Hit
Home win78.3%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
VI wins
0
Draws
0
P/A wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valmiera II vs Progress / AFA Olaine · H/A from VI
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs VI0-9

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/22HVI Vs Skanste8-2
10/09/22HVI Vs Smiltene5-0
02/09/22AJDFS Alberts Vs VI1-0
28/08/22HVI Vs Dinamo RÄ«ga5-0
20/08/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs VI3-4
07/08/22HVI Vs Grobiņa2-3
31/07/22HVI Vs FS Jelgava3-2
23/07/22ARēzekne FA Vs VI4-0
18/07/22HVI Vs RÄ«gas FS II5-0
01/07/22ATukums II Vs VI2-1

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/09/22ASalaspils Vs P/A1-2
04/09/22HP/A Vs Tukums II2-0
27/08/22HP/A Vs Skanste2-1
21/08/22ASmiltene Vs P/A0-3
06/08/22HP/A Vs JDFS Alberts2-3
31/07/22HP/A Vs Dinamo RÄ«ga1-1
23/07/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs P/A1-1
16/07/22HP/A Vs Grobiņa3-1
03/07/22AFS Jelgava Vs P/A2-0
18/06/22HP/A Vs Rēzekne FA1-1

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW2.21
HomeWLWWW2.67
AwayLLLWL1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%89%60%
AVG goals5.005.674.40
Over 1.5 %89%100%80%
Over 2.5 %84%89%80%
Over 3.5 %74%89%60%
Scored3.684.782.70
Conceded1.320.891.70
BTTS47%44%50%
Clean Sheet42%56%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.06
HomeWDLWW1.22
AwayLLDWW0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%22%
AVG goals3.834.333.33
Over 1.5 %94%100%89%
Over 2.5 %67%67%67%
Over 3.5 %39%44%33%
Scored1.561.781.33
Conceded2.282.562.00
BTTS67%78%56%
Clean Sheet11%11%11%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RÄ«gaDinamo RÄ«ga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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