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Valmiera II vs Riga FC II Result & Analysis

Date: 14/10/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Vs
48%
21%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Valmiera II wināœ— Miss
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ“ Hit
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II wināœ— Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1004L32W23L43W50W01L50W82W41W101WA·RĒZ23/07H·FS 31/07H·GRO07/08A·SAL20/08H·DIN28/08A·JDF02/09H·SMI10/09H·SKA18/09H·PRO01/10A·SAL08/10
Avg total
5.8
Avg scored
4.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game4.001.294.700.903.361.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)5.331.175.001.295.801.00
vs Weaker (9)2.221.444.000.001.332.17
Clean sheet %38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-651W34L21W20W31W62W50W40W00D21WH·RĒZ16/07A·FS 22/07H·GRO30/07A·SAL06/08A·DIN20/08H·JDF27/08A·SMI03/09A·SKA10/09H·SAL01/10H·TUK09/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.100.802.910.823.330.78
vs Stronger (15)2.800.672.380.623.290.71
vs Similar (3)4.001.335.501.501.001.00
vs Weaker (2)4.001.002.001.006.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%2%04%113%218%319%417%527%6+
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.6%
Under 1.5
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
80.6%
Under 2.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.8%
Under 3.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
78.4%
No
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.1%
1-1 āœ“
6.7%
1-2
5.9%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
5.6%
2-3
4.6%
1-3
3.8%
Valmiera II goals ↓
Riga FC II goals →
01234
01.9%1.9%2.5%1.6%0.8%
12.5%6.7%5.9%3.8%1.9%
23.8%7.3%7.1%4.6%2.2%
33.0%5.8%5.6%3.6%1.8%
41.8%3.5%3.4%2.2%1.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera II goals (down), columns = Riga FC II goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Salaspils
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
Valmiera II is 0.31 points worse than Riga FC II in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.31).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Skanste
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
Valmiera II is 0.23 goals better than Riga FC II in terms of goals scored per game (3.46 vs 3.23).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
Valmiera II is 0.38 goals worse than Riga FC II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.04).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-801L32W12L13L30W01L30W41W20W80WA·RĒZ23/07H·FS 31/07H·GRO07/08A·SAL20/08H·DIN28/08A·JDF02/09H·SMI10/09H·SKA18/09H·PRO01/10A·SAL08/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.290.712.600.502.000.91
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)3.080.752.710.713.600.80
vs Weaker (9)1.220.672.330.000.671.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L20W00D20W21W20W20W00D21WH·RĒZ16/07A·FS 22/07H·GRO30/07A·SAL06/08A·DIN20/08H·JDF27/08A·SMI03/09A·SKA10/09H·SAL01/10H·TUK09/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.301.090.361.110.22
vs Stronger (15)1.000.271.000.251.000.29
vs Similar (3)0.670.331.000.500.000.00
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L00D11D30W20W00D20W41W21W21WA·RĒZ23/07H·FS 31/07H·GRO07/08A·SAL20/08H·DIN28/08A·JDF02/09H·SMI10/09H·SKA18/09H·PRO01/10A·SAL08/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.710.572.100.401.360.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.250.422.290.572.200.20
vs Weaker (9)1.000.781.670.000.671.17
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W22D01L20W11D41W30W20W00D00DH·RĒZ16/07A·FS 22/07H·GRO30/07A·SAL06/08A·DIN20/08H·JDF27/08A·SMI03/09A·SKA10/09H·SAL01/10H·TUK09/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.501.820.452.220.56
vs Stronger (15)1.800.401.380.382.290.43
vs Similar (3)3.331.004.501.001.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.500.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.593.6%-------āœ“ Hit
Over 2.580.6%-------āœ— Miss
BTTS Yes78.4%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
VI wins
0
Draws
1
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valmiera II vs Riga FC II · H/A from VI
DateH/AGameScore
17/06/22ARiga FC II Vs VI4-3

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/22ASalaspils Vs VI1-10
01/10/22HVI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine4-1
18/09/22HVI Vs Skanste8-2
10/09/22HVI Vs Smiltene5-0
02/09/22AJDFS Alberts Vs VI1-0
28/08/22HVI Vs Dinamo Rīga5-0
20/08/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs VI3-4
07/08/22HVI Vs Grobiņa2-3
31/07/22HVI Vs FS Jelgava3-2
23/07/22ARēzekne FA Vs VI4-0

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22HRFI Vs Tukums II2-1
01/10/22HRFI Vs Salaspils0-0
10/09/22ASkanste Vs RFI0-4
03/09/22ASmiltene Vs RFI0-5
27/08/22HRFI Vs JDFS Alberts6-2
20/08/22ADinamo Rīga Vs RFI1-3
06/08/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs RFI0-2
30/07/22HRFI Vs Grobiņa2-1
22/07/22AFS Jelgava Vs RFI4-3
16/07/22HRFI Vs Rēzekne FA5-1

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW2.29
HomeLWWWW2.70
AwayLLWLW1.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%90%64%
AVG goals5.295.605.00
Over 1.5 %90%100%82%
Over 2.5 %86%90%82%
Over 3.5 %76%90%64%
Scored4.004.703.36
Conceded1.290.901.64
BTTS52%50%55%
Clean Sheet38%50%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.50
HomeWWWDW2.55
AwayLWWWW2.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %80%82%78%
AVG goals3.903.734.11
Over 1.5 %90%82%100%
Over 2.5 %70%73%67%
Over 3.5 %50%36%67%
Scored3.102.913.33
Conceded0.800.820.78
BTTS45%45%44%
Clean Sheet50%45%56%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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