PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur Result & Analysis

Date: 01/10/2023
Time: 19:15
Final 4-1
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Vs
56%
23%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W42W11D04L23L41W20W22D42WH·FRA23/07A·KR 31/07H·KA 07/08A·KEF13/08H·VIK20/08A·FH 26/08H·HK 03/09H·STJ17/09A·KR 24/09H·BRE28/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.301.372.201.402.401.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)2.001.602.301.701.701.50
vs Weaker (10)2.900.902.000.803.801.00
Clean sheet %30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W13L21W22D32W03L20W20W13L12LA·KEF31/07H·VIK08/08H·IBV13/08A·HK 20/08H·VAL26/08H·KA 30/08A·BRE03/09A·BRE17/09H·STJ24/09A·VIK28/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.802.002.141.861.502.12
vs Stronger (11)1.271.821.602.001.001.67
vs Similar (18)2.002.112.251.751.802.40
vs Weaker (1)4.002.004.002.00--
Clean sheet %17% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%412%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
6.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.4%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
FH hafnarfjordur goals →
01234
04.3%3.4%2.7%1.2%0.4%
16.3%10%5.8%2.4%0.8%
27.6%9.6%6.1%2.6%0.8%
35.4%6.8%4.3%1.8%0.6%
42.8%3.6%2.3%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = FH hafnarfjordur goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Valur Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.70
Breidablik
1.52
KA Akureyri
1.52
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.37
Fylkir
1.07
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
HK Kopavogur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.93
Keflavik
0.59
Valur Reykjavik is 0.56 points better than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.81
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Stjarnan
2.04
Breidablik
1.93
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Fylkir
1.59
KA Akureyri
1.56
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.41
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.15
Keflavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik is 0.63 goals better than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 1.81).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stjarnan
1.07
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
KA Akureyri
1.67
KR Reykjavik
1.78
Breidablik
1.81
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
Keflavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Fylkir
2.04
HK Kopavogur
2.04
Fram Reykjavik
2.07
Valur Reykjavik is 0.70 goals better than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W30W00D02L21W20W10W10W21WH·FRA23/07A·KR 31/07H·KA 07/08A·KEF13/08H·VIK20/08A·FH 26/08H·HK 03/09H·STJ17/09A·KR 24/09H·BRE28/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.431.130.531.130.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.050.451.300.600.800.30
vs Weaker (10)1.300.400.800.401.800.40
Clean sheet %67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L01L10W12L02L00D10W02L10WA·KEF31/07H·VIK08/08H·IBV13/08A·HK 20/08H·VAL26/08H·KA 30/08A·BRE03/09A·BRE17/09H·STJ24/09A·VIK28/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.100.931.210.621.00
vs Stronger (11)0.551.270.601.600.501.00
vs Similar (18)0.831.001.001.000.701.00
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W12L11D02L02L21W10W12L21WH·FRA23/07A·KR 31/07H·KA 07/08A·KEF13/08H·VIK20/08A·FH 26/08H·HK 03/09H·STJ17/09A·KR 24/09H·BRE28/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.931.070.871.271.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.951.151.001.100.901.20
vs Weaker (10)1.600.501.200.402.000.60
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L20W12L20W01L20W10W11D02LA·KEF31/07H·VIK08/08H·IBV13/08A·HK 20/08H·VAL26/08H·KA 30/08A·BRE03/09A·BRE17/09H·STJ24/09A·VIK28/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.901.210.640.881.12
vs Stronger (11)0.730.551.000.400.500.67
vs Similar (18)1.171.111.250.751.101.40
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik's squad is €1m more valuable than FH hafnarfjordur's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and FH hafnarfjordur have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and FH hafnarfjordur have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and FH hafnarfjordur have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
VR wins
2
Draws
1
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur · H/A from VR
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/23AFH hafnarfjordur Vs VR3-2
02/06/23HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur1-1
03/08/22HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-0
06/05/22AFH hafnarfjordur Vs VR2-2

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/23HVR Vs Breidablik4-2
24/09/23AKR Reykjavik Vs VR2-2
17/09/23HVR Vs Stjarnan2-0
03/09/23HVR Vs HK Kopavogur4-1
26/08/23AFH hafnarfjordur Vs VR3-2
20/08/23HVR Vs Vikingur Reykjavik0-4
13/08/23AKeflavik Vs VR1-1
07/08/23HVR Vs KA Akureyri4-2
31/07/23AKR Reykjavik Vs VR0-4
23/07/23HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik1-0

FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/23AVikingur Reykjavik Vs FH2-1
24/09/23HFH Vs Stjarnan1-3
17/09/23ABreidablik Vs FH0-2
03/09/23ABreidablik Vs FH0-2
30/08/23HFH Vs KA Akureyri0-3
26/08/23HFH Vs Valur Reykjavik3-2
20/08/23AHK Kopavogur Vs FH2-2
13/08/23HFH Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar2-1
08/08/23HFH Vs Vikingur Reykjavik1-3
31/07/23AKeflavik Vs FH2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.62
HomeWLWWW2.04
AwayLWDLD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%64%32%
AVG goals3.523.523.52
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %50%44%56%
Scored2.082.162.00
Conceded1.441.361.52
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.18
HomeLWWLL1.58
AwayWDWWL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%46%19%
AVG goals3.343.713.00
Over 1.5 %86%92%81%
Over 2.5 %70%83%58%
Over 3.5 %42%50%35%
Scored1.522.001.08
Conceded1.821.711.92
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2766
78%
2.4
7630+46
3.9
93%
78%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.81.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2755
63%
2.0
6635+31
3.7
89%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.3
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2746
52%
1.7
5529+26
3.1
93%
52%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.1
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2741
44%
1.5
5249+3
3.7
85%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.8
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2741
44%
1.5
4245-3
3.2
85%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.7
-
6FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2740
44%
1.5
4954-5
3.8
93%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.82.0
-
7KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2737
37%
1.4
3848-10
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.8
-
8FylkirFylkir2729
26%
1.1
4355-12
3.6
89%
70%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.0
-
9HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2727
22%
1.0
4155-14
3.6
81%
59%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.0
-
10Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2727
26%
1.0
4056-16
3.6
81%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.52.1
-
11IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2725
22%
0.9
3150-19
3.0
85%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.9
-
12KeflavikKeflavik2716
7%
0.6
2754-27
3.0
85%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.02.0
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

← all matches