PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Result & Analysis

Date: 11/05/2024
Time: 17:00
Final 3-1
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Vs
54%
23%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
53.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L21W63W11D20W00D01L30W11D32WA·THR16/02H·FRA24/02A·IR 01/03H·IA 20/03H·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04A·STJ19/04H·FH 24/04H·FRA29/04A·BRE06/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.401.302.621.002.141.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.931.712.171.501.751.88
vs Weaker (16)2.810.942.900.702.671.33
Clean sheet %30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W21W11D30W11D23L01L11D24L11DH·DAL08/02H·IA 16/02A·VIK24/02A·LEI09/03H·HK 07/04H·FH 13/04H·VES21/04H·IR 25/04A·VIK28/04H·KR 05/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.631.711.412.001.92
vs Stronger (2)1.005.001.005.001.005.00
vs Similar (19)1.891.631.901.401.891.89
vs Weaker (9)1.890.891.500.832.671.00
Clean sheet %17% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.5%
Under 2.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.8%
Under 3.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.3%
No
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
3-1 ✓
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
1-0
5.6%
3-0
4.9%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
KA Akureyri goals →
01234
04.0%3.3%2.9%1.3%0.4%
15.6%9.8%6.1%2.8%0.9%
26.9%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.9%6.6%4.5%2.1%0.7%
42.6%3.5%2.4%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = KA Akureyri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Breidablik
2.30
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.19
Valur Reykjavik
1.63
Stjarnan
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.37
IA Akranes
1.37
FH hafnarfjordur
1.26
KR Reykjavik
1.26
Fram Reykjavik
1.11
HK Kopavogur
0.93
Vestri
0.93
Fylkir
0.78
Valur Reykjavik is 0.26 points better than KA Akureyri in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.37).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.52
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Breidablik
2.33
KR Reykjavik
2.07
Stjarnan
1.89
IA Akranes
1.81
KA Akureyri
1.63
FH hafnarfjordur
1.59
Fram Reykjavik
1.41
HK Kopavogur
1.26
Fylkir
1.19
Vestri
1.19
Valur Reykjavik is 0.81 goals better than KA Akureyri in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 1.63).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Breidablik
1.15
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.22
Valur Reykjavik
1.56
Stjarnan
1.59
IA Akranes
1.74
KA Akureyri
1.78
Fram Reykjavik
1.81
KR Reykjavik
1.81
FH hafnarfjordur
1.85
Vestri
1.96
Fylkir
2.22
HK Kopavogur
2.63
Valur Reykjavik is 0.22 goals better than KA Akureyri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D22D00D10W00D01L20W00D21WA·THR16/02H·FRA24/02A·IR 01/03H·IA 20/03H·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04A·STJ19/04H·FH 24/04H·FRA29/04A·BRE06/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.471.120.380.860.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.930.501.170.500.750.50
vs Weaker (16)1.060.441.100.301.000.67
Clean sheet %60% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D01L00D11D12L00D00D13L01LH·DAL08/02H·IA 16/02A·VIK24/02A·LEI09/03H·HK 07/04H·FH 13/04H·VES21/04H·IR 25/04A·VIK28/04H·KR 05/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.030.940.940.771.15
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.002.000.004.00
vs Similar (19)0.951.111.101.100.781.11
vs Weaker (9)0.890.440.830.501.000.33
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L21W41W11D10W00D00D10W11D11DA·THR16/02H·FRA24/02A·IR 01/03H·IA 20/03H·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04A·STJ19/04H·FH 24/04H·FRA29/04A·BRE06/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.831.500.621.291.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.001.211.001.001.001.38
vs Weaker (16)1.750.501.800.401.670.67
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W30W00D11D01L11D11D10WH·DAL08/02H·IA 16/02A·VIK24/02A·LEI09/03H·HK 07/04H·FH 13/04H·VES21/04H·IR 25/04A·VIK28/04H·KR 05/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.600.760.471.230.77
vs Stronger (2)1.002.001.003.001.001.00
vs Similar (19)0.950.530.800.301.110.78
vs Weaker (9)1.000.440.670.331.670.67
Clean sheet %50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik's squad is €1m more valuable than KA Akureyri's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
VR wins
1
Draws
2
KA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri · H/A from VR
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/23HVR Vs KA Akureyri4-2
13/05/23AKA Akureyri Vs VR0-4
29/10/22AKA Akureyri Vs VR2-0
17/09/22HVR Vs KA Akureyri0-1
04/07/22AKA Akureyri Vs VR1-1

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/24ABreidablik Vs VR2-3
29/04/24HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik1-1
24/04/24HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur3-0
19/04/24AStjarnan Vs VR1-0
14/04/24AFylkir Vs VR0-0
07/04/24HVR Vs IA Akranes2-0
20/03/24HVR Vs IA Akranes1-1
01/03/24AIR Reykjavik Vs VR3-6
24/02/24HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik2-1
16/02/24AThrottur Reykjavik Vs VR2-0

KA AkureyriKA Akureyri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/24HKA Vs KR Reykjavik1-1
28/04/24AVikingur Reykjavik Vs KA4-2
25/04/24HKA Vs IR Reykjavik1-1
21/04/24HKA Vs Vestri0-1
13/04/24HKA Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-3
07/04/24HKA Vs HK Kopavogur1-1
09/03/24ALeiknir R. Vs KA0-3
24/02/24AVikingur Reykjavik Vs KA1-1
16/02/24HKA Vs IA Akranes2-1
08/02/24HKA Vs Dalvík / Reynir3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.74
HomeWDWWD2.15
AwayLWDLW1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%65%38%
AVG goals3.563.583.54
Over 1.5 %84%88%79%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %48%42%54%
Scored2.242.462.00
Conceded1.321.121.54
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet26%31%21%
Corners---
Cards---
KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD1.54
HomeDLLDD1.75
AwayWLDWL1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%36%
AVG goals3.203.113.32
Over 1.5 %86%86%86%
Over 2.5 %58%57%59%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.621.681.55
Conceded1.581.431.77
BTTS60%68%50%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners10.339.6711.00
Cards4.806.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BreidablikBreidablik2762
70%
2.3
6331+32
3.5
93%
70%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.31.1
-
2Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2759
67%
2.2
6833+35
3.7
89%
70%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.51.2
-
3Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2744
44%
1.6
6642+24
4.0
89%
74%
70%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.6
-
4StjarnanStjarnan2742
44%
1.6
5143+8
3.5
89%
67%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.6
-
5IA AkranesIA Akranes2737
41%
1.4
4947+2
3.6
85%
67%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.7
-
6KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2737
37%
1.4
4448-4
3.4
85%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.8
-
7KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2734
33%
1.3
5649+7
3.9
85%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.11.8
-
8FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2734
33%
1.3
4350-7
3.4
89%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.61.9
-
9Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2730
30%
1.1
3849-11
3.2
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.8
-
10VestriVestri2725
22%
0.9
3253-21
3.1
81%
59%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
11HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2725
26%
0.9
3471-37
3.9
93%
70%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.32.6
-
12FylkirFylkir2721
19%
0.8
3260-28
3.4
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.2
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

← all matches