Valur Reykjavik, coming off two straight defeats after a 0-2 loss to FC Nordsjaelland, hosts KA Akureyri, which is coming off a 0-3 defeat to Keflavik. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4.2 goals and a most likely total of 6 or more goals. The most likely score is 2-1 for Valur Reykjavik, with a probability of 8.2%.
Valur Reykjavik has been scoring an average of 2.88 goals at home, with 1.5 goals conceded, when facing opponents of similar strength. KA Akureyri, meanwhile, has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded when facing opponents of similar strength away from home.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 59% probability. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 92.7% probability, Over 2.5, with a 78.8% probability, and BTTS Yes, with a 74.3% probability. Valur Reykjavik has a 59% chance of winning, a 19% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Valur Reykjavik, failed to deliver, as the match finished 4-4, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Valur, coming off a defeat, had been in a mixed run, while KA Akureyri also entered the game after a loss. The model had assigned a 58 % chance to a home win, but the result was a stalemate. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 (92.8 %) hit, Home over 0.5 goals (92.4 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (91.9 %) missed, Home +2 handicap (89.3 %) hit, Home or Away (80.4 %) missed, Away over 0.5 goals (80.2 %) hit, Over 2.5 (78.9 %) hit, and Away under 2.5 goals (77.9 %) missed. The game was a high-scoring affair, with both sides scoring four goals each.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valur Reykjavik win✗ Miss
57.8%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 1.99
Edge
+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.11
SBO
2.08
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Draw✓ Hit
19.6%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.86
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.14
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.98
Betano
3.90
KA Akureyri win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.92
Edge
-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
1xBet
3.06
Marathonbet
3.05
Betano
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Valur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.03
2.13
1.67
1.20
2.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (18)
1.94
1.83
2.33
1.56
1.56
2.11
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
2.11
2.20
1.80
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KA Akureyri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.70
1.71
1.24
1.92
2.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.79
1.62
1.80
1.27
1.78
2.22
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.25
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.8%
@ 1.06+6.3%
Under 1.5
7.2%
@ 6.82-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Under
Betfair
8.50
888Sport
8.00
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
78.9%
@ 1.27+6.6%
Under 2.5
21.1%
@ 3.30-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.3%
@ 1.71+6.0%
Under 3.5
39.7%
@ 2.03-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.83
Unibet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betfair
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.7%
@ 1.27+2.6%
No
25.3%
@ 3.29-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
No
Betfair
3.70
1xBet
3.42
Betano
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.1%@ 9.11+3.1%
3-1
7.0%@ 12.52+3.3%
1-1
6.9%@ 9.16+2.0%
2-2
6.6%@ 9.50+1.8%
3-2
5.6%@ 13.42+2.2%
1-2
5.1%@ 11.18+1.0%
2-0
5.0%@ 15.39+2.1%
4-1
4.5%@ 22.19+2.4%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
KA Akureyri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
1.8%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
1
3.3%
6.9%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
2
5.0%
8.1%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
4.3%
7.0%
5.6%
3.0%
1.2%
4
2.8%
4.5%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = KA Akureyri goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Valur Reykjavik is 0.16 points worse than KA Akureyri in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik is 0.11 goals better than KA Akureyri in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Valur Reykjavik is 0.05 goals worse than KA Akureyri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 2.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valur Reykjavik or Draw✓ Hit
77.4%
Avg Implied 69.1% · @ 1.33
Edge
+8.3%
58%
20%
23%
covers Valur Reykjavik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Valur Reykjavik or KA Akureyri✗ Miss
80.4%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.19
Edge
+3.3%
58%
20%
23%
covers Valur Reykjavik + KA Akureyri
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw or KA Akureyri✓ Hit
42.2%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.71
Edge
-11.6%
58%
20%
23%
covers Draw + KA Akureyri
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
SBO
1.73
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.4%
@ 1.08+7.8%
Under
7.6%
@ 5.94-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Under
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.00
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
72.8%
@ 1.47+10.3%
Under
27.2%
@ 2.44-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
888Sport
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
47.5%
@ 2.47+10.5%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.46-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.53
888Sport
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Betfair
1.44
Valur Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
25.9%
@ 4.64+6.1%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.14-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.2%
@ 1.14+0.2%
Under
19.8%
@ 4.55-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.50
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.1%
@ 1.76-4.1%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.92+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.1%
@ 3.35-5.4%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.27+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.56
888Sport
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
1xBet
1.26
KA Akureyri over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
8.1%
@ 7.17-4.8%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.06+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valur Reykjavik, so a minus line means Valur Reykjavik give that many goals of a start and KA Akureyri receive them. At -1, Valur Reykjavik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valur Reykjavik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KA Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.65
0.59
0.85
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
0.50
1.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.20
0.67
0.53
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.89
1.44
0.67
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
1.11
1.00
0.60
0.25
1.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KA Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.06
0.65
1.08
1.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.00
1.13
0.73
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.17
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.8%
1.06
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
92.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.4%
1.19
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
80.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
78.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.9%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
1xBet
1.26
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
77.4%
1.33
Betano
1.39
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.24
-
-
+11.6%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
74.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
74.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-6.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
72.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.57
888Sport
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
+10.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik's squad is €1m more valuable than KA Akureyri's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →