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Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2023
Time: 19:15
Final 2-0
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Vs
46%
26%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W21W02L10W40W42W11D04L23L41WA·IBV24/06H·FYL12/07A·STJ17/07H·FRA23/07A·KR 31/07H·KA 07/08A·KEF13/08H·VIK20/08A·FH 26/08H·HK 03/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.331.931.432.121.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.681.581.891.781.501.40
vs Weaker (11)2.640.912.000.803.171.00
Clean sheet %27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W20W11D40W11D20W40W31W12L30WH·FH 29/06H·VAL17/07A·HK 23/07H·FRA26/07A·BRE29/07A·IBV05/08A·FYL14/08H·KR 21/08A·KA 26/08H·KEF03/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.372.401.201.071.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.291.521.801.100.821.91
vs Weaker (9)2.781.003.601.401.750.50
Clean sheet %30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
2-0 ✓
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
01234
05.9%5.3%4.2%1.8%0.6%
17.2%12%7.2%3.1%1.0%
27.1%9.3%6.1%2.7%0.9%
34.1%5.3%3.5%1.5%0.5%
41.7%2.3%1.5%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Valur Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.70
Breidablik
1.52
KA Akureyri
1.52
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.37
Fylkir
1.07
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
HK Kopavogur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.93
Keflavik
0.59
Valur Reykjavik is 0.33 points better than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.70).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.81
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Stjarnan
2.04
Breidablik
1.93
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Fylkir
1.59
KA Akureyri
1.56
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.41
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.15
Keflavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik is 0.41 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 2.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stjarnan
1.07
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
KA Akureyri
1.67
KR Reykjavik
1.78
Breidablik
1.81
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
Keflavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Fylkir
2.04
HK Kopavogur
2.04
Fram Reykjavik
2.07
Valur Reykjavik is 0.22 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L10W20W30W00D02L21W20WA·IBV24/06H·FYL12/07A·STJ17/07H·FRA23/07A·KR 31/07H·KA 07/08A·KEF13/08H·VIK20/08A·FH 26/08H·HK 03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.401.000.501.000.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.890.421.110.560.700.30
vs Weaker (11)1.180.360.800.401.500.33
Clean sheet %70% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W01L10W00D00D20W21W11D20WH·FH 29/06H·VAL17/07A·HK 23/07H·FRA26/07A·BRE29/07A·IBV05/08A·FYL14/08H·KR 21/08A·KA 26/08H·KEF03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.671.000.600.200.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.380.710.700.500.090.91
vs Weaker (9)1.110.561.600.800.500.25
Clean sheet %53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W01L00D20W12L11D02L02L21WA·IBV24/06H·FYL12/07A·STJ17/07H·FRA23/07A·KR 31/07H·KA 07/08A·KEF13/08H·VIK20/08A·FH 26/08H·HK 03/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.930.930.931.120.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.791.160.781.220.801.10
vs Weaker (11)1.450.551.200.401.670.67
Clean sheet %40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W30W11D20W20W10W01L10WH·FH 29/06H·VAL17/07A·HK 23/07H·FRA26/07A·BRE29/07A·IBV05/08A·FYL14/08H·KR 21/08A·KA 26/08H·KEF03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.701.400.600.870.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.900.811.100.600.731.00
vs Weaker (9)1.670.442.000.601.250.25
Clean sheet %47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
VR wins
0
Draws
2
STJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan · H/A from VR
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/23AStjarnan Vs VR2-0
29/04/23HVR Vs Stjarnan3-2
16/10/22HVR Vs Stjarnan3-0
14/08/22HVR Vs Stjarnan6-1
15/05/22AStjarnan Vs VR1-0

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23HVR Vs HK Kopavogur4-1
26/08/23AFH hafnarfjordur Vs VR3-2
20/08/23HVR Vs Vikingur Reykjavik0-4
13/08/23AKeflavik Vs VR1-1
07/08/23HVR Vs KA Akureyri4-2
31/07/23AKR Reykjavik Vs VR0-4
23/07/23HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik1-0
17/07/23AStjarnan Vs VR2-0
12/07/23HVR Vs Fylkir2-1
24/06/23AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs VR0-3

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23HSTJ Vs Keflavik3-0
26/08/23AKA Akureyri Vs STJ2-1
21/08/23HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik3-1
14/08/23AFylkir Vs STJ0-4
05/08/23AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs STJ0-2
29/07/23ABreidablik Vs STJ1-1
26/07/23HSTJ Vs Fram Reykjavik4-0
23/07/23AHK Kopavogur Vs STJ1-1
17/07/23HSTJ Vs Valur Reykjavik2-0
29/06/23HSTJ Vs FH hafnarfjordur5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.63
HomeWWWLW2.00
AwayWLWDL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%62%36%
AVG goals3.433.463.40
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %67%71%64%
Over 3.5 %47%42%52%
Scored2.022.081.96
Conceded1.411.381.44
BTTS57%58%56%
Clean Sheet22%25%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.45
HomeWWWWW1.83
AwayDDWWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%54%28%
AVG goals3.393.503.28
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %63%67%60%
Over 3.5 %41%46%36%
Scored1.822.121.52
Conceded1.571.381.76
BTTS51%46%56%
Clean Sheet29%33%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2766
78%
2.4
7630+46
3.9
93%
78%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.81.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2755
63%
2.0
6635+31
3.7
89%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.3
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2746
52%
1.7
5529+26
3.1
93%
52%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.1
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2741
44%
1.5
5249+3
3.7
85%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.8
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2741
44%
1.5
4245-3
3.2
85%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.7
-
6FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2740
44%
1.5
4954-5
3.8
93%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.82.0
-
7KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2737
37%
1.4
3848-10
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.8
-
8FylkirFylkir2729
26%
1.1
4355-12
3.6
89%
70%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.0
-
9HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2727
22%
1.0
4155-14
3.6
81%
59%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.0
-
10Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2727
26%
1.0
4056-16
3.6
81%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.52.1
-
11IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2725
22%
0.9
3150-19
3.0
85%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.9
-
12KeflavikKeflavik2716
7%
0.6
2754-27
3.0
85%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.02.0
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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