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Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Result & Analysis

Date: 30/05/2024
Time: 18:00
Final 5-1
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Vs
50%
26%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D01L30W11D32W31W31W21W22DH·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04A·STJ19/04H·FH 24/04H·FRA29/04A·BRE06/05H·KA 11/05A·AFT17/05A·HK 21/05H·FH 25/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.372.711.061.851.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)2.001.602.291.431.751.75
vs Weaker (15)2.671.133.000.802.001.80
Clean sheet %23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L13L10W21W10W41W11D53W12L50WA·VIK06/04H·KR 12/04H·VAL19/04A·AUG24/04A·FYL29/04H·IA 05/05H·FRA10/05H·KR 16/05A·BRE21/05H·KA 26/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.102.670.931.401.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)2.001.232.830.831.001.70
vs Weaker (8)2.120.752.001.332.200.40
Clean sheet %37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
01234
06.6%5.3%3.7%1.4%0.4%
18.5%12%6.4%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.7%5.6%2.2%0.6%
34.9%5.6%3.2%1.3%0.4%
42.1%2.4%1.4%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Breidablik
2.30
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.19
Valur Reykjavik
1.63
Stjarnan
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.37
IA Akranes
1.37
FH hafnarfjordur
1.26
KR Reykjavik
1.26
Fram Reykjavik
1.11
HK Kopavogur
0.93
Vestri
0.93
Fylkir
0.78
Valur Reykjavik is 0.07 points better than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.52
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Breidablik
2.33
KR Reykjavik
2.07
Stjarnan
1.89
IA Akranes
1.81
KA Akureyri
1.63
FH hafnarfjordur
1.59
Fram Reykjavik
1.41
HK Kopavogur
1.26
Fylkir
1.19
Vestri
1.19
Valur Reykjavik is 0.56 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 1.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Breidablik
1.15
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.22
Valur Reykjavik
1.56
Stjarnan
1.59
IA Akranes
1.74
KA Akureyri
1.78
Fram Reykjavik
1.81
KR Reykjavik
1.81
FH hafnarfjordur
1.85
Vestri
1.96
Fylkir
2.22
HK Kopavogur
2.63
Valur Reykjavik is 0.04 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L20W00D21W11D21W00D11DH·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04A·STJ19/04H·FH 24/04H·FRA29/04A·BRE06/05H·KA 11/05A·AFT17/05A·HK 21/05H·FH 25/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.531.120.410.920.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.070.601.140.571.000.62
vs Weaker (15)1.000.471.100.300.800.80
Clean sheet %53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D10W10W00D11D10W11D12L20WA·VIK06/04H·KR 12/04H·VAL19/04A·AUG24/04A·FYL29/04H·IA 05/05H·FRA10/05H·KR 16/05A·BRE21/05H·KA 26/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.401.470.270.600.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.000.501.420.330.500.70
vs Weaker (8)1.120.121.670.000.800.20
Clean sheet %63% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D10W11D11D20W10W21W11DH·IA 07/04A·FYL14/04A·STJ19/04H·FH 24/04H·FRA29/04A·BRE06/05H·KA 11/05A·AFT17/05A·HK 21/05H·FH 25/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.831.590.650.921.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.931.001.140.860.751.12
vs Weaker (15)1.670.671.900.501.201.00
Clean sheet %40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L00D11D10W30W01L42W00D30WA·VIK06/04H·KR 12/04H·VAL19/04A·AUG24/04A·FYL29/04H·IA 05/05H·FRA10/05H·KR 16/05A·BRE21/05H·KA 26/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.601.430.500.750.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.960.701.420.500.450.91
vs Weaker (7)1.430.291.500.501.400.20
Clean sheet %57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
VR wins
0
Draws
3
STJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan · H/A from VR
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/24AStjarnan Vs VR1-0
17/09/23HVR Vs Stjarnan2-0
17/07/23AStjarnan Vs VR2-0
29/04/23HVR Vs Stjarnan3-2
16/10/22HVR Vs Stjarnan3-0
14/08/22HVR Vs Stjarnan6-1
15/05/22AStjarnan Vs VR1-0

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/24HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-2
21/05/24AHK Kopavogur Vs VR1-2
17/05/24AAfturelding Vs VR1-3
11/05/24HVR Vs KA Akureyri3-1
06/05/24ABreidablik Vs VR2-3
29/04/24HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik1-1
24/04/24HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur3-0
19/04/24AStjarnan Vs VR1-0
14/04/24AFylkir Vs VR0-0
07/04/24HVR Vs IA Akranes2-0

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/05/24HSTJ Vs KA Akureyri5-0
21/05/24ABreidablik Vs STJ2-1
16/05/24HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik5-3
10/05/24HSTJ Vs Fram Reykjavik1-1
05/05/24HSTJ Vs IA Akranes4-1
29/04/24AFylkir Vs STJ0-1
24/04/24AAugnablik Vs STJ1-2
19/04/24HSTJ Vs Valur Reykjavik1-0
12/04/24HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik1-3
06/04/24AVikingur Reykjavik Vs STJ2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.84
HomeWWDWD2.15
AwayDLWWW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%65%46%
AVG goals3.583.543.62
Over 1.5 %86%88%83%
Over 2.5 %66%65%67%
Over 3.5 %50%46%54%
Scored2.262.382.12
Conceded1.321.151.50
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet26%31%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.54
HomeWWDWW2.04
AwayDLWWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%64%28%
AVG goals3.123.602.64
Over 1.5 %92%96%88%
Over 2.5 %56%68%44%
Over 3.5 %34%48%20%
Scored1.742.361.12
Conceded1.381.241.52
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BreidablikBreidablik2762
70%
2.3
6331+32
3.5
93%
70%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.31.1
-
2Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2759
67%
2.2
6833+35
3.7
89%
70%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.51.2
-
3Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2744
44%
1.6
6642+24
4.0
89%
74%
70%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.6
-
4StjarnanStjarnan2742
44%
1.6
5143+8
3.5
89%
67%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.6
-
5IA AkranesIA Akranes2737
41%
1.4
4947+2
3.6
85%
67%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.7
-
6KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2737
37%
1.4
4448-4
3.4
85%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.8
-
7KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2734
33%
1.3
5649+7
3.9
85%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.11.8
-
8FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2734
33%
1.3
4350-7
3.4
89%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.61.9
-
9Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2730
30%
1.1
3849-11
3.2
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.8
-
10VestriVestri2725
22%
0.9
3253-21
3.1
81%
59%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
11HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2725
26%
0.9
3471-37
3.9
93%
70%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.32.6
-
12FylkirFylkir2721
19%
0.8
3260-28
3.4
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.2
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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