This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.70
2.29
1.82
2.15
1.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.30
1.80
2.30
2.00
2.30
1.60
vs Weaker (10)
2.10
1.50
2.29
1.57
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (42%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
97.1%
Under 1.5
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
89.4%
Under 2.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.7%
Under 3.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
85.7%
No
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
6.1%
3-2
5.9%
2-1
5.2%
3-1 ✓
5.1%
2-3
4.7%
3-3
4.6%
4-2
4.3%
1-2
4.2%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
1
1.2%
4.0%
4.2%
3.2%
1.9%
2
2.3%
5.2%
6.1%
4.7%
2.8%
3
2.2%
5.1%
5.9%
4.6%
2.7%
4
1.6%
3.7%
4.3%
3.4%
2.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KA Akureyri
2.60
Keflavik
2.50
Stjarnan
2.50
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Fylkir
2.00
IR Reykjavik
2.00
Fjolnir
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Vídir
2.00
Höttur / Huginn
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
Ýmir
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
ÍH
1.75
Valur Reykjavik
1.75
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Dalvík / Reynir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
Kári
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Ægir
1.50
Throttur Reykjavik
1.50
RB
1.50
Árborg
1.50
KFG
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.50
Kormákur / Hvöt
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
KH
1.50
KV
1.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Vestri
1.50
Selfoss
1.50
KFK Kópavogur
1.50
Tindastóll
1.33
Árbær
1.33
BF 108
1.05
Stokkseyri
1.05
Neisti D.
1.05
Fálkar
1.05
Einherji
1.05
Smári
1.00
Magni
1.00
Leiknir R.
0.00
Njardvik
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Reynir
0.00
Hörður Í.
0.00
SR
0.00
Kría
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFR
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Skallagrímur
0.00
Léttir
0.00
Spyrnir
0.00
KF
0.00
Sindri
0.00
Ellidi
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
Völsungur
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Breidablik
0.00
Valur Reykjavik is 0.75 points worse than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haukar
8.33
Ýmir
7.50
Árborg
6.50
KR Reykjavik
6.00
Hafnir
5.67
Augnablik
4.33
IR Reykjavik
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
4.00
KFR
4.00
KFK Kópavogur
4.00
ÍH
3.75
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
3.67
KFG
3.50
Vængir Júpiters
3.50
KH
3.50
Kári
3.00
Afturelding
3.00
RB
3.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
3.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
3.00
Fjolnir
2.67
Tindastóll
2.67
Keflavik
2.50
Ægir
2.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.50
Hvíti riddarinn
2.50
Thor Akureyri
2.50
Vestri
2.50
Selfoss
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.50
KA Akureyri
2.40
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.40
Höttur / Huginn
2.33
Stjarnan
2.25
BF 108
2.18
Stokkseyri
2.18
Neisti D.
2.18
Fálkar
2.18
Einherji
2.18
IA Akranes
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Grindavik
2.00
Vídir
2.00
Hörður Í.
2.00
Smári
2.00
SR
2.00
Hamar
2.00
Léttir
2.00
KV
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Fylkir
1.67
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Dalvík / Reynir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
Árbær
1.33
Leiknir R.
1.00
Álftanes
1.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.00
Reynir
1.00
Kría
1.00
Úlfarnir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
Magni
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thróttur Vogar
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Spyrnir
0.00
KF
0.00
Ellidi
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Völsungur
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Valur Reykjavik is 0.25 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Höttur / Huginn
0.33
Thor Akureyri
0.50
KA Akureyri
0.80
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Árborg
1.00
Magni
1.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.20
Stjarnan
1.25
Fylkir
1.33
Tindastóll
1.33
Hafnir
1.33
Kári
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Throttur Reykjavik
1.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.50
Valur Reykjavik
1.50
Grindavik
1.67
Afturelding
1.67
Vídir
1.67
Augnablik
1.67
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
Ægir
2.00
Smári
2.00
Kría
2.00
Úlfarnir
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KF
2.00
Árbær
2.00
Sindri
2.00
Ýmir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Grotta
2.50
KFG
2.50
Hvíti riddarinn
2.50
KH
2.50
Vestri
2.50
Selfoss
2.50
ÍH
2.75
Njardvik
3.00
KFS
3.00
Skallagrímur
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Thróttur Vogar
3.00
FH hafnarfjordur
3.00
BF 108
3.35
Stokkseyri
3.35
Neisti D.
3.35
Fálkar
3.35
Einherji
3.35
RB
3.50
Kormákur / Hvöt
3.50
KV
3.50
KR Reykjavik
3.50
KFK Kópavogur
3.50
Leiknir R.
4.00
SR
4.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.33
Vængir Júpiters
4.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
5.00
ÍBU
5.00
Reynir
5.00
Hamar
5.00
Spyrnir
5.00
Álafoss
6.00
Hörður Í.
6.00
Álftanes
7.00
Léttir
7.00
KFR
8.00
Thorlákur
11.00
Afríka
20.00
Valur Reykjavik is 0.25 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Valur Reykjavik or Draw✓ Hit
69.0%
Avg Implied -
51%
18%
31%
covers Valur Reykjavik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik or Stjarnan✓ Hit
81.9%
Avg Implied -
51%
18%
31%
covers Valur Reykjavik + Stjarnan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stjarnan✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
18%
31%
covers Draw + Stjarnan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.6%
Under
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.2%
Under
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Valur Reykjavik, so a minus line means Valur Reykjavik give that many goals of a start and Stjarnan receive them. At -1, Valur Reykjavik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Valur Reykjavik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.12
0.94
0.85
0.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.60
1.10
0.90
1.00
0.30
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.70
1.14
1.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.80
2.07
0.67
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.84
0.84
2.50
0.50
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.73
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.07
1.18
0.88
1.31
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.20
1.20
1.10
1.30
1.30
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.80
1.14
0.57
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
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Vikingur Reykjavik
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
Fram Reykjavik
IA Akranes
FH hafnarfjordur
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
KR Reykjavik
Vestri
Afturelding