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Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 20:00
Final 3-2
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Vs
54%
23%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L22D21W14L01L43W12L12L11D02LH·KAU31/07A·IA 05/08H·BRE10/08A·IBV17/08H·VES22/08H·AFT26/08A·FRA31/08H·STJ14/09H·BRE22/09A·FRA28/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.372.561.121.571.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)2.531.372.821.272.121.50
vs Weaker (11)1.361.362.000.800.831.83
Clean sheet %17% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L41W11D42W21W21W32W21W00D23LA·IBV14/07H·AFT28/07A·FRA06/08A·VIK10/08H·VES17/08A·KR 25/08H·KA 31/08A·VAL14/09H·FH 21/09H·VIK29/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.772.311.881.711.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)2.331.862.552.002.101.70
vs Weaker (9)1.331.561.801.600.751.50
Clean sheet %10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
1-2
6.1%
1-0
5.5%
3-0
4.8%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
01234
03.9%3.3%2.9%1.3%0.5%
15.5%9.7%6.1%2.8%1.0%
26.8%9.4%6.5%3.0%1.0%
34.8%6.6%4.6%2.1%0.7%
42.6%3.5%2.4%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.67
Stjarnan
1.56
Breidablik
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.44
Fram Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.26
FH hafnarfjordur
1.22
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.22
KR Reykjavik
1.15
Vestri
1.07
Afturelding
1.00
Valur Reykjavik is 0.11 points better than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
2.26
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.15
KR Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Breidablik
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.67
Fram Reykjavik
1.52
IA Akranes
1.37
Afturelding
1.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.26
Vestri
0.96
Valur Reykjavik is 0.41 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (2.26 vs 1.85).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.15
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.37
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
Breidablik
1.56
Vestri
1.63
Stjarnan
1.67
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Afturelding
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.81
IA Akranes
1.85
KR Reykjavik
2.30
Valur Reykjavik is 0.04 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W01L02L01L02L10W12L00D01LH·KAU31/07A·IA 05/08H·BRE10/08A·IBV17/08H·VES22/08H·AFT26/08A·FRA31/08H·STJ14/09H·BRE22/09A·FRA28/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.631.060.620.930.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.160.681.090.821.250.50
vs Weaker (11)0.730.551.000.200.500.83
Clean sheet %50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D20W21W10W01L21W00D12LA·IBV14/07H·AFT28/07A·FRA06/08A·VIK10/08H·VES17/08A·KR 25/08H·KA 31/08A·VAL14/09H·FH 21/09H·VIK29/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.631.000.940.790.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.950.711.001.000.900.40
vs Weaker (9)0.780.441.000.800.500.00
Clean sheet %47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L20W12L00D41W02L00D11D01LH·KAU31/07A·IA 05/08H·BRE10/08A·IBV17/08H·VES22/08H·AFT26/08A·FRA31/08H·STJ14/09H·BRE22/09A·FRA28/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.731.500.500.641.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.370.681.730.450.881.00
vs Weaker (11)0.640.821.000.600.331.00
Clean sheet %40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L40W11D22D00D11D31W00D00D11DA·IBV14/07H·AFT28/07A·FRA06/08A·VIK10/08H·VES17/08A·KR 25/08H·KA 31/08A·VAL14/09H·FH 21/09H·VIK29/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.131.310.940.931.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.381.141.551.001.201.30
vs Weaker (9)0.561.110.800.800.251.50
Clean sheet %27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
AFT (7)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
VR wins
1
Draws
4
STJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan · H/A from VR
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25HVR Vs Stjarnan1-2
01/07/25HVR Vs Stjarnan3-1
14/06/25AStjarnan Vs VR3-2
23/09/24HVR Vs Stjarnan2-2
30/05/24HVR Vs Stjarnan5-1
19/04/24AStjarnan Vs VR1-0
17/09/23HVR Vs Stjarnan2-0
17/07/23AStjarnan Vs VR2-0

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25AFram Reykjavik Vs VR2-0
22/09/25HVR Vs Breidablik1-1
14/09/25HVR Vs Stjarnan1-2
31/08/25AFram Reykjavik Vs VR2-1
26/08/25HVR Vs Afturelding4-3
22/08/25HVR Vs Vestri0-1
17/08/25AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs VR4-1
10/08/25HVR Vs Breidablik2-1
05/08/25AIA Akranes Vs VR2-2
31/07/25HVR Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-2

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/25HSTJ Vs Vikingur Reykjavik2-3
21/09/25HSTJ Vs FH hafnarfjordur0-0
14/09/25AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ1-2
31/08/25HSTJ Vs KA Akureyri3-2
25/08/25AKR Reykjavik Vs STJ1-2
17/08/25HSTJ Vs Vestri2-1
10/08/25AVikingur Reykjavik Vs STJ2-4
06/08/25AFram Reykjavik Vs STJ1-1
28/07/25HSTJ Vs Afturelding4-1
14/07/25AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs STJ1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.80
HomeWLWLD2.04
AwayDDLLL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%62%42%
AVG goals3.723.923.50
Over 1.5 %96%96%96%
Over 2.5 %76%81%71%
Over 3.5 %50%54%46%
Scored2.302.731.83
Conceded1.421.191.67
BTTS78%77%79%
Clean Sheet14%15%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.72
HomeWWWDL2.12
AwayLDWWW1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%65%33%
AVG goals3.683.813.54
Over 1.5 %94%92%96%
Over 2.5 %76%77%75%
Over 3.5 %50%58%42%
Scored2.062.231.88
Conceded1.621.581.67
BTTS74%73%75%
Clean Sheet20%27%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2757
63%
2.1
5831+27
3.3
85%
67%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2745
48%
1.7
6146+15
4.0
100%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.31.7
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2742
44%
1.6
5045+5
3.5
93%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.7
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2742
41%
1.6
4642+4
3.3
89%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.6
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2739
41%
1.4
4549-4
3.5
81%
59%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.8
-
6Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2736
37%
1.3
4140+1
3.0
85%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.5
-
7IA AkranesIA Akranes2734
41%
1.3
3750-13
3.2
81%
63%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
8FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2733
30%
1.2
4946+3
3.5
89%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.81.7
-
9IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2733
33%
1.2
3437-3
2.6
81%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.31.4
-
10KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2731
30%
1.1
5562-7
4.3
93%
85%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.02.3
-
11VestriVestri2729
30%
1.1
2644-18
2.6
78%
33%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.6
-
12AftureldingAfturelding2727
22%
1.0
3646-10
3.0
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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